Pakistan comes out
fighting By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - With a number of regional oil
and gas pipeline projects involving Pakistan in
the offing, Islamabad is determined to take
advantage of them, both in terms of potential
transit revenue and in meeting the country's
growing energy needs.
The problem, though,
is that the projects involve highly restive
Balochistan province, where tribals have for years
waged a low-intensity rebellion against the
central government, in part to
demand a better share of the
economic pie of the resource-rich province. [1]
Now the Pakistan government wants to
secure the region once and for all, and believes
that the only way to do it is through forcibly
"urbanizing" Balochistan's tribes.
Islamabad has reason for concern that its
ambitious energy plans are in danger in
Balochistan. According to a report in the South
Asia Intelligence Review:
There has been a continuous series
of bomb and rocket attacks on gas pipelines,
railway tracks, power transmission lines,
bridges, and communications infrastructure, as
well as on military establishments and
governmental structures and enterprises.
Official data indicated that there had been 261
bomb blasts and 167 rocket firings in the
province in year 2005, till November 30.
According to open source information monitored
by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, at least 111
civilians and 23 security force personnel have
been killed in the province this year.
Since last month, reports have
trickled out of the region of an increased
Pakistan military presence, although the
government officially denies that it has stepped
up operations in the region.
According to
information obtained by Asia Times Online, gunship
helicopters have been active in two tribal areas,
Qalat and Chaghai, and a massive land and air
operation was launched in the Kohlu and Mohmand
areas in which dozens of tribals were killed.
"We don't know the real intentions behind
the operation. It was started out of the blue
without any reason. Initially they carried out
targeted attacks through helicopter in Qalat and
Chaghai, and stated in the press that the army was
only aiming to recover illegal weapons. However,
they failed to explain how they could conduct
search operations from helicopters without sending
in ground troops," Hasil Bazenjo told Asia Times
Online. Hasil is a son of former Balochistan
governor Ghous Bux Bazenjo, who was once one of
the top sub-nationalist leaders and an icon of the
Bolshevik movement in Pakistan.
"Then
suddenly Musharraf visited Balochistan. After
visiting the capital, Quetta, which was virtually
sealed off, instead of visiting a bigger city in
Balochistan, he chose the far-flung and restive
area of Kohlu, where apparently no arrangements
were made for security and this deliberately gave
the chance to some elements to target Musharraf's
public meeting [grenades were fired at the crowd].
To me, it was all part of a game and a setup to
start up operations in Balochistan, and now we can
see bloodshed all over," Bazenjo said.
What's at stake In the last
week of November, Pakistan began laying a
42-inch-diameter natural gas pipeline, the largest
ever in the country, in the Port bin Qasim area of
Karachi.
The US$12 million project will
link with the Sui Southern Gas Company's (SSGC's)
main transmission and distribution network
servicing Karachi, the main load center, as well
as the rest of Sindh and Balochistan. The SSGC is
a public sector gas company that operates a
transmission and distribution network in southern
Sindh province and Balochistan.
The new
big pipeline will also serve as a main component
in the SSGC's integrated liquefied natural gas
(LNG) import project, due for completion in 2009.
According to an expert, this is a preparatory
stage for handling large-scale gas infrastructure
projects, such as transnational pipelines.
Pakistan, Iran and India are involved in
negotiations to build a $4 billion, 1,700-mile gas
pipeline from Iran's South Pars field to India.
About 475 miles of the pipeline would pass through
Balochistan. A third of the gas would be delivered
to Pakistan and the rest to India. Pakistan would
receive about $700 million a year in transit fees.
The US has opposed the project, which was
first mooted nearly 10 years ago, and many felt
that heavy pressure might have forced India to
back out.
However, last week Ahmad Waqar,
secretary of Pakistan's Petroleum Ministry, was
quoted by The Times of India newspaper as saying
in New Delhi, "We don't see any stumbling block.
We are moving ahead ... and the project will see
the light of the day." Waqar's Indian counterpart,
S C Tripathi, said construction would start in
2007 for completion by 2010 if agreement was
finalized as forecast by next May.
A top
executive of the SSGC, commenting on the pipeline
in Karachi, said: "This is the start of the
opening up of new avenues. On the one side this
pipeline will allow for more gas to be made
available for new and strategic industrial
projects ... and on the other hand it will provide
infrastructural support to integrated LNG import
projects, which are in line with the government's
strategy to secure energy supplies for the
nation."
In addition to the proposed Iran
project with India, Pakistan wants to hook up
other countries. These include the Dolphin
pipeline project to get gas from Oman and the
United Arab Emirates, and also a plan to import
gas from Qatar.
Key to this is to make
Gwadar port in southwest Balochistan (about 400
miles from Karachi) a main LNG hub. And
Balochistan will remain the main entry point for
all regional gas pipeline projects.
With
so much at stake, the latest military operations
in Balochistan make sense.
"But in the
process, the army has pushed us against the wall,"
said Bazenjo. "I don't agree that there is any
separatist movement in Balochistan right now, nor
am I familiar with the existence of any freedom
organizations, such as the Baloch Liberation Army,
but with irrational steps like unjustified
military operations, the government is pushing us
to a position where we will start thinking of
parting ways with Pakistan."
There appears
to be no win-win situation - one side has to lose,
and if Islamabad has its way, it will be the
tribal people of Balochistan.
"Next year
is the target date to eliminate all tribal areas
in Balochistan and convert them into settled
areas," a top Pakistani decision-maker told Asia
Times Online on condition of anonymity.
Note [1] Balochistan is
geographically the largest of Pakistan's
provinces, but population-wise it is the smallest.
However, the province is endowed with some of the
world's richest reserves of natural energy (gas,
oil, coal); minerals (gold, copper), and it has
strategic mountainous borders and passes adjoining
Iran and Afghanistan on the west and miles of
precious maritime coast stretching from the
Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea in the south.
Syed Saleem Shahzad, Bureau
Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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