KARACHI - The release of a new audio tape
featuring al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden marks
the group's announcement that the new strategy it
has been developing is now very much in place.
The tape, the first from bin Laden in more
than a year, was aired
on
Thursday by the Al-Jazeera satellite TV channel.
It appeared to have been made in early December,
US intelligence officials said.
In the
tape, bin Laden warned that al-Qaeda was preparing
terrorist attacks on the United States:
"Operations are in preparation, and you will see
them on your own [US] ground once the preparations
are finished."
Since the ouster in 2001 of
the Taliban from Afghanistan, where al-Qaeda had a
strong base, and with the ongoing "war on terror",
al-Qaeda has lost hundreds of operatives through
killings and arrest. By the end of 2003, the
organization was in the doldrums and its cadre
infested with spies.
As a result, the
organization as it had been run was practically
dismantled. Its vertical, centralized structure
was abolished and its various groups and cells -
apart from a few - were abandoned and allowed to
scatter. Bin Laden, in the meantime, went
low-key.
The US attack on Iraq then
provided al-Qaeda with a trump card as it was able
to reactivate members and sympathizers in Saudi
Arabia, Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Morocco and
beyond.
In fact the success of the Iraqi
resistance, in which al-Qaeda is a component,
figured significantly in the thinking of
al-Qaeda's leadership to relaunch the group as an
open organization to pitch a worldwide battle
against US interests. Serious debate on this new
direction began in 2004, with two main issues
prominent:
Should al-Qaeda drop its shadowy nature and
call for a jihad in the open against the United
States?
Should the "war" be exclusively against the
US, or also against Muslim regimes sympathetic to
the US?
These issues were later linked
with two conditions:
The acquisition of bases to launch a war in
the open.
The reorganization of sympathizers and new
recruits to launch a worldwide battle.
At
this time, al-Qaeda decided to defer its war
against Muslim regimes until a clear-cut victory
was gained in Iraq. Bin Laden has always resisted
taking the fight to these countries.
Throughout 2005 al-Qaeda underwent
extensive changes to prepare itself for major
operations.
The new structure of
al-Qaeda Information gathered by Asia
Times Online from various sources suggests that
though al-Qaeda is now working on a horizontal
structure, some top-level decision-making bodies
have been revived to discuss key issues and to
communicate decisions to other levels. These
include a religious committee and an al-Qaeda
council.
First the council addresses
issues and then passes its decisions to the
religious committee, which reviews the religious
implications of the decisions. It then gives the
final approval, or not.
A special
committee coordinates matters worldwide with other
organizations, including Hamas, Islamic Jihad,
Ansar al-Sunna and other Iraqi resistance groups.
Al-Qaeda has now achieved many of its
targets, including the acquisition of various
bases in the shape of small pockets. The
leadership has safe havens in areas along the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas, including
Khost-North Waziristan, South Waziristan,
Kunar-Chitral and Kunar-Bajur.
The areas
in the South and North Waziristan tribal areas are
the most significant as the Pakistan government
has virtually lost its writ there. According to
credible information, there is very little room
left for Pakistani security agencies to move
around beyond South Waziristan's headquarters,
Wana, and North Waziristan's headquarters,
Miramshah.
Pro-Taliban militants rule the
roost here, and even local journalists cannot file
stories without the prior approval of these
militants. Other journalists simply are not
allowed into the area. As a result, very little
information filters out from North and South
Waziristan.
Nonetheless, contacts in
various jihadi organizations suggest that both
North and South Waziristan have become hubs for
all jihadi activities.
Hundreds of youths
previously belonging to such organizations as the
Laskhar-i-Toiba, Jaish-i-Mohammed,
Harkat-i-Jihadi-i-Islami, Harkatul Mujahideen etc,
left for bases in South and North Waziristan.
Here they receive fresh jihadi
orientation, including both military and
ideological training, and after a few months they
are launched into Afghanistan. Their numbers run
into the thousands.
The acquisition of
these bases and fresh recruits are the prime
successes of al-Qaeda as it prepares to wage its
new battle. Bin Laden's appearance confirms this
to his followers.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad is Bureau Chief, Pakistan Asia Times
Online. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright
2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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