KARACHI - Apprehension and expectation are
uppermost in the minds of Pakistani leaders ahead
of the visit by United States President George W
Bush on Saturday.
There is apprehension
because of the security situation and expected
mass country-wide demonstrations against the US.
On Thursday, a suicide car bomb attack killed four
people, including an American diplomat, outside
the US consulate in Karachi. And a number of
political and religious groups have announced plans
for
protests to mark what they have dubbed a "black
day" on Saturday.
There is also
apprehension because Bush, who landed in India on
Wednesday evening, will be spending only one day
in Pakistan, which is supposed to be Washington's
"most allied ally in Asia" and partner in the "war
on terror" in neighboring Afghanistan.
"Pakistanis somehow regard the growth of
an Indo-American strategic partnership as some
kind of a negative development. A zero-sum game is
what is in their mind, though the Americans are at
pains to explain to both sides that America
remains their friend while they are running their
own cold war," Professor Jafar Ahmad of Karachi
University told Inter Press Service (IPS).
Bush sealed a civilian nuclear technology
and fuel agreement with India on Thursday as part
of a strategic partnership initiative, launched in
July when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
visited Washington.
"As far as I can see
there is no prospect of America providing nuclear
reactors to Pakistan or giving this country the
status of a nuclear power - the chances of any
such thing is zero," Ahmad said. Such a demand has
been made by President General Pervez Musharraf.
However, the academic was inclined to
blame the Abdul Qadeer Khan episode for the
changed attitude. "The Americans were genuinely
angry with the proliferation activities of A Q
Khan and the subject is far from being closed - it
is possible that Bush makes some sort of demarche
on it while here."
Khan, the father of
Pakistan's nuclear program, has admitted to
nuclear proliferation activities, including with
Iran. He remains under virtual house arrest in
Pakistan, although Islamabad has refused to allow
the US to interrogate him.
While both
India and Pakistan are self-declared nuclear
weapon states, the Bush administration views India
as having a clean record on nuclear proliferation,
unlike Pakistan.
Bush can also be expected
to make some "democracy-promoting" statements in
the context of elections, slated for 2007, and
some soothing words on Afghanistan-related
matters, though these are likely to be accompanied
by more pressures, Ahmad said.
Signs of
bending to those pressures were available on
Wednesday, when a Pakistan Army statement said
more than 45 militants, mostly foreigners along
with their local facilitators, had been killed in
a military operation involving the use of
helicopter gunships in North Waziristan, along the
Afghan border.
A
commentator on strategic issues, Brigadier A R
Siddiqui, is optimistic about the Bush visit. "In
Pakistan's bilateral relationship with America,
there are certain constants. There is Pakistan's
persistent need for support and military aid. The
times when Pakistan was not receiving American
military aid are regarded as extraordinary and
characterized by hardship.
"It is a
perennial expectation that the Americans would go
on providing more military aid, though the current
visit may be limited to the sale of F-16
aircraft," Siddiqui said. He added that an
announcement of the long-pending sale was
important, though it may have more political value
than military, considering the nuclear-capable
aircraft are now nearly obsolete.
Even
after the Khan proliferation scandal was exposed
in early 2004, Pakistan continued to receive aid
from Washington. In that year, Bush announced a
US$3 billion aid package and accorded Pakistan the
status of "major non-NATO [North Atlantic Treaty
Organization] ally", placing it on par with
countries such as Israel for generous military and
financial aid.
"Pakistan", said Siddiqui,
"has been taken by surprise by the sweep of the
Indo-American strategic partnership. Many here
have noted with some apprehension that the
Americans are determined to help India grow into a
major global power and that they are ready to
recognize India as a regular nuclear power with
all the privileges of the Nuclear Suppliers Group
and specially amended American laws as well.
"Bush said in his Asia Society speech
[February 22] that he would ask Pakistan to close
down the training camps for Taliban and other
terrorists and arrest the top leadership of
al-Qaeda, which the Afghans say is hiding in
Pakistan. This is now the main concrete American
interest in Pakistan and they are very serious
that Pakistan should be more actively helping by
preventing the Taliban from using Pakistan
territory."
One possible positive outcome
of Bush's sub-continental visit is that it could
help improve India-Pakistan relations. "Although
no concrete changes have taken place yet, both
India and Pakistan are simultaneously professing
friendship for America and are indirectly
cooperating with each other," Ahmad said.
"So long as they don't threaten a nuclear
exchange, some differences between India and
Pakistan do not worry the Americans. Pakistanis
also tend to expect too much from the Americans on
such perennial issues as Kashmir."
Siddiqui observed that the options for
Pakistan were narrowing. "Pakistan has made a new
demand on the US: 'Give us the same treatment on
the nuclear subject that you are proposing to give
to India,' but the chances are slim that America
will concede anything like that.
"Indeed,
I believe that there are apprehensions that Bush
will emphasize what President Hamid Karzai of
Afghanistan recently said, accusing Pakistan of
allowing the Taliban to regroup and attack Afghan
or NATO targets."
Bush, who made a
surprise stopover in Afghanistan on Wednesday, en
route to India, said during a joint news
conference with Karzai that he "absolutely will
bring up cross-border infiltration with President
Musharraf", and that it was an "ongoing topic of
conversation".
Before leaving Washington,
Bush told ABC television, "I'm going to talk to my
friend President Musharraf and remind him that we
have a common enemy in al-Qaeda, and so long as
al-Qaeda is plotting and planning in the
neighborhood, we're going to need to work together
to stop those plots."
Said Siddiqui: "It
is not only al-Qaeda and Afghanistan. The very
politics of Pakistan is unsettling for the
Americans. The upsurge of the Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal [a six-party religious/political
group] on the thin basis of Danish newspaper
cartoons [of the Prophet Mohammed] is symptomatic.
The Americans were banking on Pakistan growing
more moderate and modernist than is the case."
While Bush was vocal about democracy, his
definition differed from what independent and
opposition politicians in Pakistan think democracy
is, Siddiqui said. "Musharraf in full military
regalia has presided over the destinies of
Pakistan for so long [since 1999] and the
Americans have felt no discomfort. It would be odd
if Bush would indicate, even indirectly, that he
is not comfortable with Musharraf's uniform."
