Musharraf caught in an arc of turmoil
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - President General Pervez Musharraf's observation that Pakistan is
strategically situated in an "arc of turmoil" from Afghanistan through Iran to
the Middle East is aimed at promoting Islamabad's influence in this region.
At the same time, Pakistan itself is caught in a vicious arc of turmoil that
all but ties the hands of the Pakistani leader, for whichever way he turns, he
is looking down a double-barreled
shotgun: domestic wrath that could bring him down, and alienation of his
increasingly disgruntled partner in the "war on terror", the United States.
The American barrel
Despite President George W Bush's flying visit to Pakistan on Saturday, the two
sides are aware that their alliance now borders on the realm of living in a
fool's paradise.
The US and Pakistan are meant to be major allies, yet this marriage of
convenience, forged in the tumultuous days following the September 11, 2001,
attacks on the US and the ouster of the Taliban from Afghanistan in 2001,
appears headed for the rocks.
When Bush and Musharraf met in Islamabad, they didn't even have a clear-cut
agenda to discuss, unlike Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who
had met earlier and agreed on a number of important issues, including a
civilian nuclear accord.
What Bush did want from Pakistan, according to officials familiar with the
meeting who spoke to Asia Times Online, was for Abdul Qadeer Khan to be made
available for interrogation.
The US wants to grill Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear-weapons program and
self-confessed proliferator, including with Iran, so that it can build a case
against Iran at the United Nations Security Council. The US argues that Tehran
is bent on building the bomb. The issue of Iran's nuclear program is currently
before the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. It is expected to make
a decision on referral to the Security Council soon.
Pakistan has outright denied any direct access to Khan, who is under virtual
house arrest in Pakistan, although it has agreed to hand over a scientist,
named only as Dr Farooq, and a Pakistani businessmen, named only as Mr Jafery,
who were allegedly involved in smuggling nuclear components on the
international market.
To the Americans, this is only a half-measure, and until direct access is
provided to Khan, they believe they will not be able to draw a full picture of
Iran's nuclear program and its possible capacity to develop atomic weapons.
Against this background, the US will definitely not provide Pakistan with any
cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy, as it did with India. Bush
clearly drew a line during his press conference in Islamabad in response to a
question on whether his country would deal equally with India and Pakistan. He
said Pakistan and India had a different history of nuclear development and
requirements.
Between the lines, he clearly outlined the fact that India had developed its
nuclear program indigenously and had never been involved in proliferation,
while Pakistan had obtained its program clandestinely and then sold on secrets.
Bush raising the issue of democracy in Pakistan and of Musharraf's insistence
on wearing a uniform also irked the Pakistani leader, who seized power in a
coup in 1999.
Further, in calculated remarks ahead of Bush's visit, Afghanistan lashed out at
Pakistan for failing to deal with Taliban bases and their activities on
Pakistani territory.
This prompted Musharraf to pay a fruitful strategic visit to China, during
which he not only struck a deal for fighter aircraft with an advanced delivery
system, but also for nuclear plants. This was a clear message to the United
States that Pakistan had options.
"They [Pakistanis] should be ready for worse times coming ... we have
substitutes and they know why I went there [China] before his [Bush's] visit,"
Musharraf said at a press conference in Islamabad, which was repeatedly
broadcast on all private and state-run media.
From the Pakistani perspective, it now sees the US is committed to squeezing
Islamabad until it produces on the "war on terror" shopping list, starting with
Osama bin Laden, his deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, Taliban leader Mullah Omar
and resistance figures Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Much
as the US would like to add Khan to this list, Pakistan sees him as
non-negotiable.
The Taliban thorn
The Taliban are geared for their spring offensive in Afghanistan, having
regrouped in their thousands and established bases in the country, on the
border areas with Pakistan and within Pakistan itself, in North Waziristan.
They are complemented by al-Qaeda-linked jihadis who have helped train the
Taliban in urban guerrilla warfare.
On Monday, after several days of fighting between Taliban and Pakistani forces
in North Waziristan, relative calm returned to the area, and the two sides have
begun talks. The major demand of the Taliban is a guarantee of free movement
over the porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
At present, militants use footpaths in the Shawal region to cross into
Afghanistan. This hampers their logistical ability and makes supply lines very
difficult to maintain. The Taliban are demanding access from Ghulam Khan
Mountain, which would allow vehicles to pass so they could fuel the insurgency
at the highest possible level.
If they get this, and with more advanced weapons, they could significantly
raise the level of the insurgency.
The US, though, by carrying out various attacks within Pakistan, the latest
being a drone attack on suspected militants last month, clearly could never
accept such a Pakistani deal with the Taliban.
The domestic barrel
Rallies sponsored by the establishment against the publication of caricatures
of the Prophet Mohammed in European countries have turned into ones related to
Tehrik-i-Nizam-i-Mustafa, in essence the call for the introduction of sharia
(Islamic) law.
Now angry mobs want to destroy all icons of pro-Americanism, including the
leaders sitting in Islamabad. Opposition parties have said they will not let
Musharraf salute an important parade on March 23.
Musharraf has a stark and unenviable choice. He could go along with the Taliban
plan for easy access into Afghanistan. That would mean risking complete
alienation from the US, whatever that might entail, but it would take the fire
out of the domestic campaign to unseat him.
Alternatively, he could refuse the Taliban, attempt to play ball with the US,
and try to defuse the mounting movement against him.
The nucleus of whatever Musharraf decides to do will be North Waziristan. One
clear swing toward either of the choices would set off an unprecedented
reaction.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Bureau Chief, Pakistan Asia Times Online. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
