India's nuclear quest Down
Under By Kaushik Kapisthalam
As India's quest for nuclear status gains
focus in the United States, another battle is
brewing in Australia as that nation seriously
debates its views on a nuclear India. Australia
has long held a vital position in the global
nuclear arena - as both a key supplier of nuclear
material and as a vociferous proponent of
non-proliferation efforts.
Australia's
primary nuclear-supplier role is as a provider of
uranium, the necessary part of nuclear fuel
cycles. While the element is not a scarce
commodity - it can even be extracted from seawater
- Australia holds about 40% of world's easily
extractable uranium. This means that for countries
seeking
nuclear fuel cycle for
electricity generation, access to relatively cheap
Australian uranium would be a big boon.
The country holds the world's largest
stores of known recoverable resources of uranium.
In terms of economics, the term "reasonable
assured resources" is used to identify the
quantities of ore than can be exploited at an
economically justifiable cost. The Australia-based
Uranium Information Center estimates the country
has 38% of the world's lowest-cost uranium
resources - uranium that is extractable at less
than US$40 per kilogram.
However,
Australian politics has always had a strong
anti-nuclear streak. Various governments - Labor
or Liberal - have always been coy about fully
exploiting the country's uranium deposits. In 1984
the federal Labor government of the day introduced
what it termed a "three-mine policy". This
basically limited uranium production to the three
sites already being mined: Ranger, Nabarlek and
Olympic Dam.
In 1996, the new coalition
government changed this policy by allowing mining
and export of uranium under strict international
and bilateral safeguards agreements designed to
assuage nuclear-proliferation concerns. Since
then, the Nabarlek mine has been shut down. Today
the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory and the
Olympic Dam mine in South Australia continue to
churn out vast quantities of exportable natural
uranium. In addition, a new uranium mine in
Beverly is in operation, and approval was given
for a fourth at Honeymoon. Both are in South
Australia.
The United States is currently
the largest buyer of Australian uranium, while
Japan, South Korea, the European Union and Canada
are other customers. Australian uranium production
in 2004-05 was 10,964 tons, accounting for 22% of
world production. Uranium-ore exports in the same
time frame were valued at A$475 million (US$352
million).
Courting the dragon During the Cold War, Australia's uranium
exports have been to the US and Western-allied
countries such as South Korea, Japan, Canada and
several EU states. China, on the other hand, had
testy ties with Canberra and was long denied
Australian uranium. However, Australia-China ties
are on an upswing thanks to the latter's voracious
appetite for Australian natural resources. China
is now one of Australia's biggest trading
partners, and the volume of commerce is rising
rapidly.
As a result of the cash flow from
China, Australian policymakers have had a rethink
ties with that nation. Just weeks ago, Australian
Prime Minister John Howard and Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao signed a safeguards agreement to enable
China to procure Australian uranium. While the
safeguards agreement is supposedly tight enough to
ensure that China only uses Australian uranium for
nuclear power plants, many in Australia note that
China can easily divert the material elsewhere
should it choose to do so.
Daryl Kimball,
executive director of the US-based Arms Control
Association, told Asia Times Online that while the
safeguards agreement theoretically provides
assurances that Australian uranium won't be used
directly for Chinese military purposes, in
practice this will be difficult to achieve, and
the procedures for how the two parties would do so
have not yet been fully explained.
"China
is a member of the NPT [nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty], but it is a secretive nuclear-weapon
state with a growing nuclear arsenal, is not
subject to full-scope safeguards of its nuclear
facilities, and little is known about its
nuclear-weapons program," he said.
Before
the government of Australia fully approves and
implements the arrangement, it should demonstrate
greater leadership and responsibility by insisting
that China publicly declare and verifiably halt
the production of fissile material for weapons
purposes and finally ratify the Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, he said.
Delhi
hopeful India has long had testy relations
with Australia in the nuclear field because of
Canberra's long-held views on nuclear
non-proliferation. Australian voters have
consistently displayed an anti-nuclear streak over
the years and their politicians have been
sensitive to those views. Australian bureaucrats
have played key roles in global non-proliferation
regimes and as a result have come to see India as
a rogue nuclear state that dared to challenge what
they felt was an international consensus on
nuclear non-proliferation.
When India
tested nuclear weapons in 1998, Australia was one
of the first countries to condemn it and take
quick action. The Australian government quickly
froze all military contact with India and led
efforts in regional and global forums to isolate
and condemn India for defying the world. Since
then, Australia-India relations have been on a
moderate upswing, but there is still a perceptible
amount of testiness when it comes to nuclear
matters and India's regional role. One former
Indian diplomat, who regularly dealt with
Australia, told ATol that it is very possible that
Australian policymakers are "jealous" of India's
increasing closeness with the United States.
However, many in New Delhi are seeing the
Australian willingness to sell uranium to China as
a sign that Canberra may finally be willing to
shed its nuclear blinkers. From the Indian
standpoint, China may be a member of the NPT, but
its adherence to the treaty norms has been suspect
at best, while India has voluntarily observed
non-proliferation practices despite being shut out
of the NPT.
"By opening the nuclear door
to China, Aussies have basically conveyed that
they are ready to deal with anyone," a former
Indian official told ATol. "It is only a matter of
time and price before [the Australians] give us
the ore."
Despite the Indian hopes, it is
not clear that an Australian opening on uranium
sales may be forthcoming. Despite China having
signed the NPT, several influential figures in
Australia oppose selling uranium to the Asian
power. Primary opponents include powerful elements
within the opposition Labor Party, which controls
all the states, and the fringe Green Party. The
Australian diplomatic bureaucracy too is steeped
in hardline non-proliferationist thinking and may
not favor relaxing nuclear rules for India's sake.
India, however, hopes the trend favors New
Delhi, especially since Australia apparently
expressed support for the Indo-US nuclear deal at
the recent crucial meeting of the Nuclear
Suppliers Group in Vienna. Traditionally,
Australia, along with the likes of Canada and
Germany, has in the NSG and other multilateral
institutions opposed any concessions to India in
the nuclear-supply arena.
Indian
strategists feel that one way or another,
Australia will have to figure out how it can play
a role in India's geopolitical ascendance.
Already, Australian military estimates and
evaluations are taking India's naval power into
account. Both navies cooperated in the relief
efforts after the devastating 2004 tsunami in
their adjoining maritime areas.
As far as
uranium sales are concerned, Indian officials
believe the ore is a fungible commodity and as
long as Australia sells its uranium to some
countries, it only frees up other uranium
suppliers to sell to India. As one retired Indian
official put it, "When a big buyer like China
locks up Australian uranium, who are Canada and
Kazakhstan going to sell to? Our demand has its
own weight and suppliers will be lining up to tap
the [Indian] market."
Whether it
eventually trades with India, it is evident that
Australia has opened a new era in uranium commerce
by sealing the deal with China.
Kaushik Kapisthalam is a
freelance defense and strategic affairs analyst
based in the United States. He can be reached at
contact@kapisthalam.com.
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2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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