It's showdown time in
Pakistan By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Across the jihadi world, there
is a strong conviction that by the end of this
year Taliban leader Mullah Omar will be back in
power in Afghanistan, from where he was driven by
US-led forces in 2001.
Realistically, eight months
is likely to be too ambitious a time frame for
a Taliban victory, if victory is achievable at all.
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the
Taliban movement is poised to enhance its nuisance
level significantly in the United States'
strategic back yards in the region - notably
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Acutely aware of
this, the US is leaning heavily on Pakistan, its
key ally in the "war on
terror" in the region, to go on the offensive
against the strong Taliban
foothold in the North and South Waziristan tribal
areas on the border with Afghanistan.
What the US is asking for, in
effect, is a Tora Bora-style aerial bombing of the
area, similar
to that undertaken in the mountains of that name in
Afghanistan during the rout of the Taliban five
years ago. (Incidentally, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden escaped
from Tora Bora long before the bombs began
to fall.)
The
Taliban are integrated into the local population
and there would be high civilian
casualties. This is considered acceptable as civilians would be deemed
Taliban sympathizers.
According to highly placed
officials who spoke to Asia Times Online, the
Pakistani military has already drawn up a
blueprint for such an attack, which could be
implemented in the near future.
In
response, the Taliban, along with al-Qaeda, have a
counter-plan in which they will go on the
offensive, and an extensive network is primed to
launch attacks on the Pakistani establishment.
This is the first time since the fall
of the Taliban that the al-Qaeda leadership
has activated Pakistani jihadis all over the country for
operations both inside and outside the country.
The
effect of this is illustrated by an incident in
Kandahar, Afghanistan, recently in which three
suicide bombers were arrested after they failed to
detonate their devices because of technical
problems.
All three were from the
Pakistani port city of Karachi. Detailed
investigations at the Kandahar military base by
agents of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation
revealed a network starting from a book shop in
Karachi, going on to a contact in Quetta, the
capital of Balochistan province in Pakistan, and
then on to Chaman in the same province. From there
the three men launched their attack in Kandahar.
These arrests spotlight just one of many
powerful networks established across Pakistan to
carry out jihadi activities on a scale that has
not existed since the fall of the Taliban.
This is reinforced by a recent broadcast
by Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's No 2, in which he
called on Pakistanis to topple President General
Pervez Musharraf, calling him "a bribe-taking,
treacherous criminal". He especially asked the
Pakistani army to mutiny against Musharraf.
Zawahiri made a similar broadcast in 2003,
but a lot has changed since then. At that time,
the Taliban were bruised and down, scattered and
without central leadership. Al-Qaeda was also on
the run, its network in a shambles, and survival
was the only issue. Broadcasts by bin Laden and
Zawahiri had only two purposes: to keep the morale
of the jihadis high and to sow uncertainty in the
ranks of the rival camp.
Both aims were
achieved. Each message kept the jihadis
spiritually connected with their leadership, and
opponents were kept guessing about the Taliban and
al-Qaeda. Soon after Zawahiri's call, a number of
assassination attempts were made on Musharraf's
life, with the complicity of sections within the
armed forces.
In the meantime, al-Qaeda
began to develop its "netwar" strategy - a complex
organization of cells and groups. While Zawahiri
continued his broadcasts, bin Laden disappeared
from the scene.
To keep
thousands of inactive jihadis in Pakistan involved and to
bring them into al-Qaeda's net, various methods
were used, including the distribution of training
manuals, motivational compact discs and action
clips of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
At
the same time, al-Qaeda and the Taliban
established a foothold in North Waziristan,
renaming it the "Islamic State of North
Waziristan" and seizing virtual control of the
area. Jihadis were invited to the base, which has
expanded to parts of South Waziristan and
neighboring villages in Afghanistan.
This
was in preparation for the Taliban's powerful
spring offensive, which is now under way, directed
toward Kabul as well as Islamabad.
The
sudden emergence of bin Laden in a broadcast this
month was a global message to the jihadi movement,
urging them to come to the base (Waziristan) as a
new "war" had begun, of which the spring offensive
is the first major salvo.
This
was followed by Zawahiri's call to do battle
against Musharraf. Unlike in 2003, the jihadis are
now much better organized to take on the Pakistani
establishment.
The situation
is now dangerously poised. Musharraf,
under US pressure, is prepared for an all-out
attack on the Taliban and al-Qaeda. At the same
time, the military rulers are well aware of the
renewed strength of the jihadis, and are extremely
reluctant to go for the "final solution" and all
it would involve.
Asia Times Online
contacts claim that in this explosive environment,
some sort of a compromise deal, as in the past,
might be worked out, with both sides agreeing to
back off for the time being. In such an
eventuality, the only winners would be the Taliban
and al-Qaeda: they can only go from strength to
strength, and they will not give up on their
ultimate goal of toppling the administrations in
Kabul and Islamabad.
Zawahiri's message
for Pakistan The following are
translated excerpts from a broadcast by Ayman
al-Zawahiri that was aired on Arabic television
last weekend.
... As for the second
thing I wish to talk to you about, it is the dark
fate toward which the traitor Musharraf is pushing
Pakistan. Without a doubt, Pakistan is one of the
most important of the countries targeted by this
new colonialist crusade which seeks to weaken
Pakistan and fragment it into entities under the
control of India, which is allied with the
Americans and Jews.
And here I wish to
clarify an extremely important point, which is
that the anti-Islamic American/Crusader/Zionist
plan has no place for the presence of Pakistan as
a strong, powerful, able state in South Asia,
because this plan doesn't forgive Pakistan for
separating from India in the name of Islam, and
doesn't forgive it for including the largest
Islamic schools with wide influence among the
Muslims of South and Central Asia, and doesn't
forgive it for the flourishing of the popular
jihadi movements in it against the Indians in
Kashmir and first the Russians and then the
Americans in Afghanistan, and doesn't forgive it
the favorable response of its people, scholars,
students, mujahideen and tribes to the Islamic
emirate in Afghanistan - since its founding and to
this very day - and to its amir the lion of
Islam, Mullah Mohammed Omar, may Allah protect
him, and doesn't forgive it its overwhelming
public sympathy for the call of Sheikh Osama bin
Ladin for jihad to expel the Americans and Jews
from the holy places of the Muslims and their
homes.
In this context, India appears to
be the best candidate to implement the
Zionist/Crusader plan to humiliate Pakistan and
weaken it and tear it apart. And [President George
W] Bush's recent visit to Pakistan at the
beginning of March was one of the biggest pieces
of evidence of that, as he gave a strong push to
India's nuclear program, while handing out orders
and instructions in Pakistan. And I will review
with you in brief just a few of the many woes and
misfortunes which Musharraf and his supporters
have brought on Pakistan.
The first of
these woes is Musharraf's combating of Islam in
Pakistan. With an order from the Crusaders, he
provided all the backing needed to expel the
Islamic emirate from Kabul. And he has made war on
the Islamic schools, and is seeking to review the
Hudood Act related to rape], in addition to
inventing - with Crusader guidance - a new Qadiani
creed which invites the people to an Islam without
jihad and without enjoining of good and
prohibition of evil and without observation of the
rules of the sharia, which he calls "Enlightened
Moderation".
The second of these woes is
Musharraf's threat to Pakistani national security.
Musharraf was the primary backer of the ouster of
the Islamic emirate from Kabul, and was the
primary reason for the establishment of a
government in Kabul allied to America and India
and hostile to Pakistan. And as a result of
Musharraf's betrayal, Indian intelligence has
crept close to the Pakistani-Afghan border and
opened its consulates in the cities adjacent to
Pakistan. And the Pakistani army, with the exit of
the Taliban government from Kabul, became a double
loser: first, the Pakistani army lost the
strategic depth which Afghanistan, with its
highlands and mountains, can offer it in any
Pakistani-Indian confrontation. And second, the
Pakistani army's back became exposed to a regime
hostile to it and allied with its enemies. And if
you add to this India's success in exploiting air
bases in Tajikistan and its seeking military
cooperation with the Central Asian states, you
will realize the extent of the predicament which
the Pakistani army has gotten itself into.
And Musharraf is the one who placed the
Pakistani nuclear program under American - and
hence Jewish and Indian - supervision. Musharraf
exploited America's accusation of Abdul Qadeer
Khan [father of Pakistan's nuclear program] to
impose its surveillance on the Pakistani nuclear
program. And then is it credible that Abdul Qadeer
Khan was outside the surveillance of Pakistani
military intelligence? Thus the first ones who
should be brought to trial in the case of Abdul
Qadeer Khan are the leaders of the Pakistani army
and intelligence. But Abdul Qadeer Khan was used
as a scapegoat to please America.
And
Musharraf is the one who is fanning the flames of
civil war in Pakistan on behalf of America, in
Waziristan and Balochistan, in a bloody conflict
whose losses have no end, and which will only
rebound on Pakistan with the worst of damages. The
worst thing any army in the world could wish for
is that it be assigned to defend the borders of
its country at a time when it is embroiled in an
internal civil war. Pakistani memory has yet to
forget the catastrophe caused by the civil war in
East Pakistan [that led to the creation of
Bangladesh]. And what Musharraf has done in
Bajaur, Waziristan and Balochistan he will repeat
in Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar, and indeed, any
place the Americans request him to strike.
And Musharraf is the one who is seeking to
change the combat doctrine of the Pakistani army
by repeating that the real danger to Pakistan is
from within and not foreign: ie, he is inciting
the Pakistani army to fight its people and
brothers and turn a blind eye to the Indian
threat. And if the combat doctrine of any army
becomes corrupted, and its fighting turns into
fighting for the sake of salary and position
alone, then this army will run away from the
battlefield whenever fighting breaks out.
And how is it possible for the Pakistani
officer or soldier to be persuaded that he is
defending Islam when he is the one who enabled the
Americans to kill tens of thousands of Muslims in
Afghanistan, and enabled them to oust the Islamic
emirate from Kabul? And how is it possible for the
Pakistani officer or soldier to be persuaded that
he is defending the sanctity of Pakistanis when
his commanders order him to kill women and
children in his own country? And how is it
possible for the Pakistani officer or soldier to
be persuaded that he is defending the honor and
dignity of Pakistan when he sees his leaders order
him to carry out a new slaughter every time they
are visited by a high-ranking American official?
The third of these woes is Musharraf's
squandering of the issue of Kashmir and his
painstaking effort to dispose of it at any cost.
Musharraf is the one who strangled the jihadi
resistance against India, which led it to increase
its savagery and draw up the borders. And
Musharraf is the one who made and continues to
make one concession after another in the Kashmir
issue, even as India hasn't budged one step from
its stance. And Musharraf is the one who seeks to
deceive the Muslim ummah [community] in
Pakistan by pretending to them that the problem
with India will be resolved with
confidence-building measures, in order to
neutralize the effort to liberate Kashmir, which
is the real problem between Pakistan and India.
And Musharraf is the one who wars against
the Arab mujahideen and their brothers from all
corners of the Islamic world, who represent one of
the most important weapons in the liberation of
Kashmir, in the same way that they contributed
before to the liberation of Afghanistan from the
Russians. And Musharraf is the one who brought
American military and intelligence forces to
Kashmir under the pretext of helping the victims
of the earthquake. They came in under this cover
and commenced to strengthen their defenses and
fortifications in order to establish permanent
Crusader bases on the Pakistani-Indian border.
The fourth of these woes is Musharraf's
recognition of Israel, to prepare the Pakistanis
psychologically to recognize a Hindu state in
Kashmir. The fifth of these woes is his affront to
Pakistani dignity and sovereignty when he gave
free reign to American intelligence and
investigative agencies in Pakistan, and turned
Pakistan's army and security services into hunting
dogs at the service of the Crusaders.
The
sixth of these woes is his corruption of political
life in Pakistan. Through bribery and election
fraud, Musharraf declared himself president and
formed a party of bribe-takers and opportunists
which he provided with a parliamentary majority,
and distributed to them and the rest of his
supporters the country's treasures, which he had
seized, even though he is the same one who claimed
at the beginning of his rule that he came to
combat fiscal corruption in Pakistan.
And
the West, which claims to defend democracy, was
hostile to Musharraf at the outset of his rule,
but later did a U-turn in admiration of him and
his treachery, and indeed, today encourages him to
stay in power by any means, after he demonstrated
his aptitude for killing Muslims. Musharraf's real
problem is bribery. And Musharraf reckons that his
success in procuring wealth will only be achieved
by betraying Pakistan and appeasing America and
throwing himself at its feet.
But he
forgets the other half of the reality, which is
that America tosses its agents into the rubbish
bin when there is no longer any need for them. And
were he to look across his western borders, he
would see the fate of the shah [of Iran] bearing
witness to that, when they ordered him to leave
Iran, and then deprived him of asylum and indeed,
even medical treatment, which he only found with
his friend the bribe-taker Anwar Sadat [of Egypt].
And in keeping with Musharraf's worship of
wealth and his mad dash for bribes, he tries to
persuade the Pakistani people that they must take
care of their interests without paying attention
to any moral or religious considerations. This is
the same logic of drug dealers, white-slavery
gangs, spies and traitors, and the outcome of this
attitude is the loss of this world and the next.
Allah the Exalted says, "Satan threatens you with
poverty and bids you to immorality, while Allah
promises you His forgiveness and bounties, and
Allah cares for all and He knows all things." -
Al-Baqarah 2:268.
I address the Pakistani
people, to call on them to stand today in the
ranks of Islam against the Zionist/Crusader
assault on the Islamic ummah and on
Pakistan, and I call on them to strive in earnest
to topple this bribe-taking, treacherous criminal,
and to back their brothers the mujahideen in
Afghanistan with everything they have until they
defeat the plan of the Crusaders and Zionists
allied with India.
I also call the
Pakistani army's attention to the dismal fate
which awaits them in this life and the other, for
the Pakistani army has turned into forces aligned
under Bush's cross in his crusade against Islam
and Muslims, just as it has become a tool in the
destruction and tearing apart of Pakistan. Let
every soldier and officer in the Pakistani army
know that Allah has threatened anyone who allies
himself with the infidels against the Muslims with
a painful punishment. Allah the Exalted says, "To
the hypocrites give the good tidings that there is
for them a grievous chastisement; those who take
for friends unbelievers rather than believers: Is
it honor they seek among them? Nay, all honor is
with Allah." - Al-Nisa 4:138-139.
And let
every soldier and officer in the Pakistani army
know that Musharraf is throwing them into the
burner of civil war in exchange for the bribes
which he took from the Americans, and that he
doesn't care if 10,000 or 20,000 Pakistani troops
are killed, as long as his pockets are full of
bribes. And let them know that Musharraf has made
preparations to flee abroad - where he has his
secret accounts - on the victory of the popular
revolution.
For this reason, I call on
every officer and soldier in the Pakistani army to
disobey the orders of his commanders to kill
Muslims in Pakistan and Afghanistan, or otherwise
he will be confronted by the mujahideen who
repelled the British and Russians before. The
Truth - Exalted is He - says, "Say to those who
have disbelieved, if they cease [from disbelief],
their past will be forgiven. But if they return
[thereto], then the examples of those [punished]
before them have already preceded [as a warning].
And fight them until there is no more
fitnah [disbelief and polytheism] and the
religion will all be for Allah alone [in the whole
of the world]. But if they cease [worshipping
others besides Allah], then certainly, Allah is
All-Seer of what they do. And if they turn away,
then know that Allah is your maula [patron,
lord, protector and supporter] - [what] an
excellent maula, and [what] an excellent
helper." - Al-Anfal 8:38-39.
Syed
Saleem Shahzad is Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia
Times Online. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com. (Copyright
2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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