NEW DELHI - In its quest for energy, New
Delhi is in danger of falling between two stools
in its dealings with the US and Iran. Ratification
of the India-US nuclear deal over civilian nuclear
energy cooperation has hit major roadblocks in
Congress, with sharp differences emerging over
various definitions of the deal.
Tehran,
on the other hand, has announced that it wants to
renegotiate a $22 billion gas deal signed last
year. Although Tehran says that this move has no
connection with India siding against Iran over its
nuclear program, few in Delhi believe that there
is no connection, and they are concerned that
Tehran's
irritation with India will
manifest itself in future interactions.
This week, Iranian Deputy Oil Minister
Mohammed Hadi Nejad Hosseinian said in New Delhi
that Tehran wanted to reopen the commercial
agreement for a 5 million ton liquefied natural
gas (LNG) deal signed last year between Indian Oil
Corporation and the National Iranian Gas Exporting
Company. Indian Oil Minister Murli Deora said the
dispute was over price.
"Because it [LNG
deal] is not ratified [by the Iranian government],
we think we don't have any obligation, but the
Indian side thinks it is approved and is in
effect. So we have a dispute," Hosseinian said.
India is not too happy. "Oil prices have
shot up, so they want a review. But we do not want
to revise it. We want the gas at the price that
was mentioned in the contract," Deora said. New
Delhi has also begun simultaneous negotiations
with Australia and Qatar for LNG due to Iran's
isolation by the global community.
Another
move that India does not appreciate is the
decision by Iran and Pakistan to work on a gas
pipeline project together if India fails to join
them. Following talks with Iranian officials,
Reuters has quoted Ahmed Waqar, permanent
secretary at Pakistan's Petroleum Ministry, as
saying that Pakistan and Iran had agreed to go
ahead with the pipeline regardless of the outcome
of the trilateral $7 billion India-Pakistan-Iran
(IPI) project.
In Delhi, Hosseinian said
that India had to agree on the pipeline by July.
Failing that, Tehran would proceed with exports to
Pakistan. "India has not been edged out of
pipeline. We continue to engage in discussions
leading to a tri-nation ministerial meeting next
month," Hosseinian said after meeting Deora.
Last month, the oil ministers of Iran,
Pakistan and India said at an international energy
forum in Doha that they were very near a final
agreement on the pipeline, in defiance of US
opposition. Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri said
he expected the final deal to be signed in Tehran
in June.
Iran's toughening stance comes at
a time when more "wrinkles" have appeared on the
nuclear deal. The US has insisted that India
adhere to a moratorium on testing atomic weapons
(which India has rejected) as part of the deal
that would give India access to US and foreign
nuclear technology for the first time in three
decades.
The Bush administration has said
that Delhi must be prepared to accept "amendments"
to the agreement which are within the "spirit" of
the accord announced in March.
Sounding a
tough note, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran,
recently back in India after canvassing for the
deal in Washington, said that it was "delicately
balanced", and any substantial changes or
revisions to it were unacceptable to India. Saran
said that Delhi hoped Congress would implement the
pact along the agreed parameters.
Meanwhile, US pressure on New Delhi to
stay away from Iran continues. Early last month,
in trying to sell the India-US nuclear deal,
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the Bush
administration could not guarantee that if the
deal was approved by Congress, the Iran-India gas
pipeline would not be built.
However, on a
more stringent note, Washington has also
reiterated that it is against any such deals with
Iran. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said at Doha
that conducting business with Iran encouraged its
nuclear ambitions, when asked about the IPI at a
press conference. "Doing business with Iran, it
seems to me, at a certain level encourages this
[Iran's nuclear program]," he said.
The US
has also outlined an ambitious project to tap the
energy-rich ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia.
The plan would develop a regional power grid from
Kazakhstan to India to feed India, Pakistan and
Afghanistan, and help integrate the economies of
Central and South Asia, circumventing Iran and
reducing the reliance on pipelines through Russia.
Assistant Secretary of State Richard
Boucher presented the plan and said that
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan were rapidly becoming
top energy producers.
Delhi, meantime, has
also been trying to strike a conciliatory note
towards Tehran, at a time when assembly elections
are being held in four states - West Bengal,
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry - with Muslims
are a sizeable voting bloc. This is also being
seen as an attempt to send a political message to
the Muslim population, which is believed to be
upset with New Delhi's pro-US, anti-Iran stance.
Last month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
had a telephone conversation with Iranian
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and discussed energy
cooperation and the need to push forward the IPI
pipeline.
Recently, the minister of state
for external affairs said that India would go
ahead with the pipeline project with Pakistan. It
was lost on nobody that the announcement was made
at Thiruvanthapuram in Kerala state, where the
elections are being held. "India and Iran enjoy
traditionally friendly relations ... We intend to
further strengthen and expand our multi-faceted
ties," the minister said.
Some experts say
that India may actually not be interested in the
pipeline. According to an analysis by Stratfor,
"India and Iran have talked about the natural gas
pipeline deal for more than a decade. The deal has
not progressed primarily because it has been
regularly used as a political tool by New Delhi,
Tehran, Islamabad and Washington. For India,
running a natural gas pipeline through Pakistan
does not make sense from a national security
perspective. Distancing New Delhi from Tehran's
orbit is one of Washington's major objectives. New
Delhi's motives for the current announcement of
progress on the deal is largely attributable to
assembly elections."
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based
journalist.
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