India's left packs more
punch By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Indian leftist parties are
expected to press their demands, particularly on
foreign policy and economic issues, after
resounding state election victories, though it's
unlikely they will try to pull the rug out from
under the country's coalition government.
They captured two of five Indian states
that went to the polls in the past month: a
landslide victory in West Bengal, winning 235 of
293 constituencies to gain their seventh
consecutive term, and a convincing win in Kerala,
where they wrested control from the Congress
party-led coalition, winning 98 of the 140 seats
in the state assembly.
But while this
should translate into the left being more
assertive in its demands for concessions, there
appears no will to inflict fatal
wounds on the central
government coalition.
Meanwhile, apart
from the landslide victory of Congress party
leader Sonia Gandhi in parliamentary by-elections
and its significant performance in Tamil Nadu,
where it could be back in government for the first
time since 1967, the Congress on the face of it
has little to smile about. It will head the
government in the tiny, politically insignificant
state of Pondicherry, while in Assam, while it
might return to power, it can do so only with the
support of others. The Congress appears to have
lost the support of Muslims.
Compounding
Congress concerns is the likely fallout of the
left's stunning performance. There are elements of
the Congress that are anxious that the left will
flex its muscles in the running of the federal
government in wake of its success at the polls.
In 2004, India's leftist parties agreed to
extend support to the 15-party Congress-led United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) government on the basis
of a Common Minimum Program (CMP), which outlines
the minimum objectives of a coalition government.
With 61 members in the 545-seat Lok Sabha (the
lower house of parliament), the left has provided
the government crucial support from outside the
coalition.
The left, however, has been
unhappy with the UPA's alleged violation of the
CMP on foreign and economic issues. It has locked
horns with the government on what it sees as an
excessive tilt toward the United States and its
position on the Iran nuclear crisis. It has
opposed steps the government has taken to
liberalize the financial sector and bring in
foreign direct investment in the banking sector
and in retail trade, as well as disinvestment
measures in the public sector.
Over the
past two years, leftist leaders have frequently
expressed unhappiness with the UPA. They have
issued statements, criticized the government in
parliament and on the streets, suspended
participation in UPA coordination committee
meetings (set up to iron out differences among
allies) and mobilized public opinion through
strikes.
Still, they barked but did not
bite. But that could change, warn political
observers. Reports in the media suggest the
massive mandate the left has received could
encourage it to be more assertive, even
aggressive.
"The assembly results have
strengthened the role of the left parties at the
national level," Prakash Karat, general secretary
of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), said
even before counting of votes began on Thursday.
"We will increase our pressure on the UPA
government to implement the pro-people provisions
in the CMP."
That was the left's theme
throughout the election campaign.
The left
is clearly raring to go and ready with its wish
list. Among its demands are scrapping of the
Pension Reforms Bill and a rethink on the proposed
sale of 49% of government shares in the
profit-making public-sector Bharat Aluminium Co to
private players.
There are also issues on
the foreign-policy front. The left is still
smarting from the government's refusal to heed its
call for review of its pro-US foreign policy.
Despite its threats to the government not to vote
against Iran in the International Atomic Energy
Agency, the government went ahead and voted with
the US not once but twice, referring Iran to the
United Nations Security Council.
The left
is also upset with the UPA government's silence on
the US-European Union-Israel financial blockade of
the Palestinians. It will now push the government
to extend concrete assistance to Palestine. It is
expected to demand more forcefully that India
correct its excessive tilt to the US.
But
how the left is going to push the government,
beyond routine barking, remains to be seen.
Political analysts believe the left is
unlikely to withdraw support of the government. C
P Bhambri, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru
University in New Delhi, said although the
statements of leftist leaders reflect strong
opposition to the government's economic policies,
he does "not see any possibility of their pulling
down the government".
The left's main
concern is that a fall of the Congress-led
government in New Delhi could result in the return
of its greater foe, the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP), Bhambri told Indo-Asian News Service.
Some even suggest that far from making the
Congress-led coalition government vulnerable to
leftist pressure, the leftist landslide could
strengthen the government. "Their thumping wins in
the two states would prod the left parties to
overcome all their hitherto doubts and conclude
that supporting the Congress at the center on the
secular political plank does not necessarily hurt
them in their back yards," K Subrahmanya wrote in
the Deccan Herald.
Within the UPA
coalition too the election results seem to have
strengthened the Congress's hand. The Dravida
Munetra Kazhagam (DMK, a constituent of the UPA
coalition), which won in Tamil Nadu but with
insufficient seats to form a government on its
own, will have to form a coalition government in
the state. The Congress will either be a part of
this government or at least extend support from
outside.
"What has emerged is an
interlocking political arrangement between the
Congress and the DMK," Subrahmanya pointed out.
"If the Congress requires the DMK for sustaining
its UPA government at the center, the DMK requires
the Congress to sustain the prospective Democratic
Progressive Alliance government in Tamil Nadu."
Some have suggested that the left would
seek to twist the UPA's arm by stepping up efforts
to bring together a third front (or a "third
alternative" as the left prefers to describe it)
that would challenge the Congress and the BJP in
the next general elections.
But Bhambri
argues that the increased proximity between the
DMK (a potential third-fronter) and the Congress
would make the left "think twice" before deciding
to part ways with the UPA.
An important
factor that will moderate leftist pressure on the
government's economic policy is that its
economic-reform program in West Bengal helped it
to widen its support base. Urban youth and the
upper middle class have in this election embraced
the left. The left will be reluctant to alienate
this constituency, as it played a role in the
landslide win.
Also the verdict from West
Bengal indicates economic reforms the Left Front
government under Chief Minister Buddhadeb
Bhattacharya undertook have brought it urban
votes, while not sacrificing rural votes. This,
hope reformists, should persuade the left to
temper its pressure on the UPA's economic policy.
Bhattacharya's contribution to the leftist
victory is likely to enhance his influence and
stature in the party, but whether he can win over
the party hardline ideologues remains to be seen.
The Congress will have to concede some ground to
the left on economic issues, but this, if the
Bhattacharya magic works, might not be as much as
initially feared.
And change will come in
foreign policy.
The rethink is likely to
come not so much because the left will demand it
but because of electoral compulsions. Voting
patterns in all the states that went to the polls
indicate Muslims did not back the Congress as they
have in the past. In Kerala, for instance, the
left has made significant inroads in the
Muslim-dominated northern Kerala constituencies
that have always voted for the Muslim League, an
ally of Congress.
Muslim anxieties over
the Congress's pro-US policies and the
left-sustained anti-US campaign before and during
the elections have cost the Congress dearly, and
the party will seek to win them back.
Sudha Ramachandran is an
independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
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