India, US fight to save the nuke
deal By Kaushik Kapisthalam
The civilian nuclear cooperation agreement
between the United States and India is still
alive. After weeks of getting battered by critics
of the deal inside the US Congress and elsewhere,
the administration of President George W Bush and
the Indian government are hitting back with a set
of actions that they hope will lead to the deal's
passage this summer.
Indian Foreign
Secretary Shyam Saran and Under Secretary of State
Nicholas Burns, Washington's point man on the nuke
deal, are to meet in London on Thursday to update
each other on the steps their countries have taken
so far and to coordinate tactics to ensure the
smooth passage of the deal.
Burns is
likely to ask Saran where India is with respect to
its
safeguards agreement with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Burns
may also talk about the new US push for a global
Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. In return, Saran
is sure to ask Burns for an update on what the
Bush administration is doing with Congress to get
US laws changed to accommodate the nuke deal.
In the US Congress, even supporters have
expressed frustration that the India-IAEA
agreement talks are going slower than expected.
For instance, Senator Lamar Alexander, while
supportive of the deal, noted during a recent
visit to New Delhi that Congress could act faster
if India's talks with the IAEA were speeded up and
Congress had an idea about the broad contours of
the India-IAEA safeguards agreement. US
arms-control hawks point to this alleged delay as
evidence of Indian perfidy.
New Delhi
rejects these arguments, claiming that safeguards
agreements are proceeding as planned. They note
that the nuclear pact had reciprocal steps at its
core, and India is unlikely to take unilateral
steps just to appease critics who are mostly
opposed to the deal anyway.
One former
Indian official told Asia Times Online that the US
Congress passed a nuclear cooperation agreement
with China even though Beijing rejected a US
request for minimal IAEA safeguards on US-supplied
nuclear material: "It is incredible that the
[non-proliferation] critics were silent when china
was able to obtain congressional clearance to
purchase American nuclear technology without any
safeguards, but they cast aspersions on India
despite our sovereign commitment to negotiate an
ironclad firewall and safeguards system with the
IAEA."
Nevertheless, Indian sources say
that Burns is likely to make a diplomatic push for
India to speed up its dialogue with the IAEA or
give public updates at the very least.
Going multilateral One reason
for this week's Burns-Saran meeting is the plenary
of the Nuclear Suppliers Group that will begin
next Monday in Rio de Janeiro. The NSG needs to
clear an India exception before its 46 member
nations can commence civilian nuclear trade with
New Delhi. While sources in both New Delhi and
Washington say there is little hope that the NSG
will clear the India exception during the Rio
plenary, both governments hope that the
cooperation deal is discussed during the meeting
in a manner favorable to its eventual passage.
India is in the process of reaching out to
all the NSG members to seek their support or,
failing that, to persuade the countries not to
oppose the deal. The group operates on a consensus
basis that could work both ways for India. On the
one hand, a single deal-opposing nation could hold
up NSG clearance, which Indian officials say is
unlikely. The other side of the argument is that
for the US-India nuclear agreement to be blocked
in the NSG, one country needs to stand up and
publicly oppose it while other opponents may stay
quiet. But few countries want to bear the burden
of the hostility of a rising global power such as
India, they note.
Indian charm
offensive So far, New Delhi has reached out
to key NSG states at high levels. Indian Minister
of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma visited
Brazil and South Africa last month to lobby for
support of the nuclear deal. Both those countries,
which once aspired to having nuclear weapons, are
unhappy that India is seeking the benefits of
nuclear commerce while keeping its atomic weapons,
while they abandoned their advanced
nuclear-weapons programs to get the same
privileges.
Japan is another key NSG
member lukewarm about the India deal. The Foreign
Ministry has publicly criticized the deal by
calling it a threat to the non-proliferation
system. However, Kisaburo Tokai, director general
of the international bureau of Japan's ruling
Liberal Democratic Party, disclosed to an Indian
news agency during a recent visit to New Delhi
that his country would have no issue with the deal
were India to complete a safeguards agreement with
the IAEA.
Frustrated with that stance,
India is trying to lobby other branches of the
Japanese government for support. Reports indicate
that Japan's powerful Ministry of Economy, Trade
and Industry (METI) is pushing for the India deal.
METI and the Foreign Ministry have an equal say on
whether Tokyo supports the India nuclear-trade
exception. India is also lobbying private Japanese
firms with offers of a piece of its civilian
nuclear-commerce pie.
A few weeks ago, S K
Jain, chairman of the state-owned Nuclear Power
Corp of India, visited Japan, seeking input and
cooperation in building advanced fast breeder
reactors (FBRs). Other than India, Japan is one of
the few countries with ongoing FBR research.
Japanese nuclear-power vendors are eager for an
opportunity to sell their wares to India given
that their domestic sales prospects are bleak in
the near term.
Race against
time In the United States, prospects for a
prompt passage of the nuclear deal look dismal.
After a peremptory rejection of a recent proposal
by senior Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos for a
two-step passage of the deal, the Bush
administration is now talking compromise. Richard
Boucher, US assistant secretary of state for South
Asia, told Reuters on Monday that the executive
branch is willing to work with Lantos on his
proposal, which would call on Congress to
"welcome" the deal with a promise to pass
legislation on a fast-track basis once India
completes its bilateral agreement with the US as
well as the IAEA safeguards pact.
Well-placed insiders tell Asia Times
Online that they do not sense any panic within the
US and Indian governments despite the fierce
criticism of the nuclear pact in both countries.
US sources say that even if the India deal came to
a vote today, there is enough support in both
houses of Congress for some sort of deal to pass.
Despite these claims and the furious
Indo-US efforts in the NSG, the real test will be
in Washington, where the India deal needs to be
legislated on within the next few weeks or risk
being shelved until next year - an outcome no side
wants. Both sides are only too aware that a year
is long time in politics and diplomacy.
Kaushik Kapisthalam is a
freelance defense and strategic affairs analyst
based in the United States. He can be reached
at contact@kapisthalam.com.
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2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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