India shelves ambitious nuclear
missile program By Siddharth
Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Has the Agni III,
India's most ambitious nuclear-capable
ballistic-missile program, been aborted or merely
put in cold storage? Keen to impress the world
community of its peaceful intentions in its quest
to obtain nuclear fuel and technology from the
United States, France, Canada and Australia, it
seems that New Delhi has made up its mind to
shelve plans for big military-power credentials
for now.
The government has decided to
cancel the first test-firing of an Indian
inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), one
with a range
of
4,000 kilometers (some say up to 6,000km), which
is sufficient to reach China and capable of
delivering a nuclear payload.
Pressure
from the US and others cannot be discounted. The
United States has always been very suspicious
about India's Agni program, and in 1994 persuaded
it to suspend testing of the missile after three
test flights. The US-backed Missile Technology
Control Regime (MTCR) seeks to prevent the
proliferation of missiles capable of delivering a
500-kilogram payload over distances of 300km and
more.
India has been subjected to
sanctions since it exploded a nuclear device at
Pokhran in 1974 and turned into a full-fledged
nuclear-weapons state through a series of
underground tests in May 1998. Nor has India (or
Pakistan) signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT).
The restrictions have been
eased over the past few years, partly because of
Washington's strategic shift toward India, the
influence of business interests (India's nuclear
market is considered to be worth more than US$100
billion), and India's record as a "responsible
nation" with a strong democratic traditions. It
culminated in the Indo-US nuclear-energy
cooperation deal this March.
However, it
has also come to light that as part of the March
pact (the contents of which were leaked to the
media) Washington has been insisting that New
Delhi agree to a future moratorium on testing of
dual-use (nuclear or conventional warheads)
missile technology and the testing another atomic
bomb.
India has rejected such a commitment
as a back-door entry to the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty. India has not signed the CTBT, as it feels
that the treaty came into existence after those
who possessed nuclear weapons had perfected the
know-how. But at this delicate time, India is also
keen not to annoy the United States and the
US-backed 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
scheduled to deliberate on the issue next week in
Brazil.
Some experts think that India's
restrained approach as a nuclear power puts the
country at a geopolitical disadvantage, as any
mere symbolic capability is a liability. "For us
to start acting as if we're a nuclear-weapons
state may have it costs, because someone may end
up believing you. And, as I say, if someone
believes that you're a threat, then he may be
moved to take some preemptive action,'' said
analyst Bharat Karnad on CNN-IBN.
However,
the thinking in New Delhi is different. The
consensus holds that India now has a minimum
credible nuclear deterrence in place, and so the
Agni III should rest for a while. Given the acute
electrical-power situation in the country, it
could be a worthwhile tradeoff. In any case, it
will not be possible for India to beat China in a
nuclear-arms race for a long time.
This
week Anil Kakodkar, chairman of India's Atomic
Energy Commission, said plans are in place to
double the electricity production from nuclear
power plants by 2030. "We are trying to realize
the target of 20,000 megawatts and scale it up to
40,000MW by 2030, with the possibility of
international cooperation," he said.
The
importance to the nuclear pact that will make
India eligible for supplies of enriched uranium to
generate power became apparent in a roundabout
way. At a recent event attended by Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh and Defense Minister Pranab
Mukherjee, M Natarajan, who is the scientific
adviser to the government, said, "We are
technically ready for the test-firing of the Agni
III missile [since January]. We are awaiting a nod
from the government.''
However, New Delhi,
mindful of international reactions especially at
the upcoming NSG and the ongoing wrangles at the
US Congress, which is debating the Indo-US nuclear
pact for legislation, has quickly said it has
canceled the tests. Mukherjee, who is also a
proponent of improved Sino-Indian ties and is
slated to visit China this month, said, "As
responsible members of the international
community, we want to keep our international
commitments on non-proliferation. We have no
pressure on us, nor are we putting any political
pressure. It is just that we have decided to have
self-imposed restraint.''
New Delhi has
further reiterated that it did not postpone the
test-firing of Agni III under US pressure. Such
decisions, it said, were based on its assessment
of national-security needs. "Decisions concerning
the country's strategic program, including the
development and testing of different classes of
missiles, are based on technical factors and a
continuous review and assessment of our overall
security environment,'' a Foreign Ministry
spokesperson said.
So far, India has
developed the 150-300km Prithvi and the 700-800km
Agni I missiles, which are aimed at Pakistan and
have been inducted into military service. In
response, Pakistan has its own arsenal, including
the 750km-range Shaheen I and 1,500km Ghauri-I
ballistic missiles believed to be derivatives of
the Chinese M-9 and North Korean Nodong missiles.
Last year, Pakistan successfully
test-fired its first cruise missile. India has its
own cruise missile, BrahMos, with a 300km strike
range, believed to be similar to the US Tomahawk
cruise missile, which was widely used in Iraq and
Afghanistan. China's ballistic missiles are, of
course, far more advanced and are said to cover
most of the world.
Agni II (2,000km-plus,
also inducted) and Agni III are seen as nuclear
deterrents aimed at China. Agni III is said to be
able to deliver a 200-300kg warhead with a high
degree of accuracy. The longest-range,
surface-to-surface Agni III has reportedly been
ready for launch for two years, but the tests have
been repeatedly postponed.
India's
military capabilities and arsenal are developed by
the Defense Research and Development Organization
(DRDO), which works in close coordination with
space and nuclear-power institutions. At one level
the announcement by Natarajan is seen as a way to
deflect criticism of the DRDO as being steeped in
red tape, delays and long gestation periods.
However, there is no doubt that it is the shadow
of Washington and access to nuclear energy that
finally tilted the scales against the Agni III.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
.)
