India embraces Myanmar on its own
terms By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Even as India was reaffirming
its growing ties with Myanmar at the seventh round
of consultations between the foreign offices of
the two countries, the US and other countries have
been moving forward at the United Nations to have
Myanmar's military rulers censured by the Security
Council.
The
US-led move comes in the wake of the
decision by Myanmar's ruling State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) to extend Aung San Suu
Kyi's house arrest. Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate and
leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD),
has been under house arrest since May 2003.
Hopes for establishing democracy
in Myanmar were raised in May when UN undersecretary
general Ibrahim Gambari visited
Myanmar and was allowed to
meet Suu Kyi. He is the only person other than her
physician to have been allowed to visit her. The
meeting raised false hopes that the SPDC would
release Suu Kyi and renew contacts with the NLD,
which won a landslide victory in the 1990 general
election. But hopes of change were dashed on May
27 when the SPDC extended Suu Kyi's detention for
another year.
This has prompted the US, among
other Western countries, to consider pursuing
a Security Council resolution that would "underscore
the international community's concerns about
the situation" there. According to State Department
spokesman Sean McCormack, the concerns included
Suu Kyi's "unjustifiable detention". Washington
has been saying that it would like to move
Myanmar - a country to which Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice referred as an "outpost of tyranny"
- on to the Security Council"s formal
agenda.
If the US goes ahead, it would be
the first time anyone has pushed for a Security
Council resolution against Myanmar. Yangon's
military rulers have been hauled up several
times by the UN for their flagrant disregard
for democracy and human rights, but this has
happened on the floor of the General Assembly and
by UN agencies such as the International Labor
Organization.
The proposed resolution in
the Security Council would therefore be unprecedented.
But even as the US is considering this resolution,
for some of Myanmar's neighbors it is business as
usual with the generals. India, for instance,
seems unfazed by the proposed US move.
Recently, Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam
Saran was in Myanmar, firming up energy and
economic ties. "The talks covered the entire gamut
of India-Myanmar bilateral relations, with special
emphasis on issues such as security, energy, trade
and economic cooperation and infrastructure
projects," a statement issued by the Ministry of
External Affairs said.
Indian
officials are not worried about the proposed US
resolution in the Security Council. China and Russia -
both veto-wielding permanent members - and Japan, a
non-permanent member, have already signaled their
opposition. "I don't consider the situation in
Myanmar as a situation that poses a threat to
international peace and security," Japan"s
ambassador to the UN is reported to have told the
Security Council.
While India is banking
on the Chinese veto to prevent the US resolution
from being adopted, it was China's growing
influence in Myanmar that in fact prompted India
to begin engaging the generals there.
In
1988, India was among the most vociferous in its
criticism of the Myanmar junta's brutal
suppression of the student uprising. The Indian
Embassy in Yangon is said to have helped the
pro-democracy activists, and its officials were in
touch with opposition groups during the protests.
In 1990, India stepped up its criticism of
the generals when the junta refused to respect the
mandate and hand over power to the NLD. In
December 1992, it even sponsored a UN resolution
calling on the junta to respect the will of the
people expressed in the 1990 election and to take
all necessary steps towards the restoration of
democracy.
From this policy of backing the
pro-democracy movement, India subsequently
switched to a "pragmatic policy" of engaging the
generals. The rapprochement was prompted by
security concerns triggered by China's role in
equipping, training and modernizing Myanmar's
army, which increased its influence over the
junta.
Myanmar is said to have leased its
Coco Islands to China. This enabled Beijing to set
up a monitoring station there, which meant that
China could not only keep an eye on Indian naval
activity in the Bay of Bengal but also spy on
missile test-firing activity on India's east
coast. New Delhi realized that China's wooing of
Myanmar's generals even as India shunned them had
made India's eastern flank even more vulnerable.
So while China is the main reason for
India engaging with the Myanmar junta today, it is
China's likely blocking of a Security Council
resolution that will enable India to continue
doing business with the generals.
China's
reason for blocking such censure is of course
prompted by its own extensive and long-standing
economic and security interests in Myanmar.
Beijing and Yangon have stood by each other in the
face of international isolation in the past, point
out Indian officials, and they will do so again
now should the US push for a Security Council
resolution.
There are other reasons, too,
for India's continuing engagement with Myanmar,
despite moves to censure it in the Security
Council. It is economically rewarding.
Myanmar is India's land bridge to
Southeast Asia. Trade with Southeast Asia could
transform the economy of India's northeast.
Myanmar is a vital component for the success of
India's "Look East Policy". Besides, Myanmar's
large gas reserves could significantly address
India's energy security concerns. Recently,
Myanmar signaled that it is willing to sell gas to
India. Cooperation with the generals has also been
rewarding in fighting the insurgency in India's
northeast.
Since the cost of castigating
the generals in the late 1980s and early 1990s was
very high - it left the field open for China to
gain ground in Myanmar - New Delhi is unlikely to
make that mistake again. Wooing the generals is
now paying off. India therefore is unlikely to
join the West in condemning the junta.
The
West has little to lose by antagonizing Myanmar,
says a retired diplomat, justifying India's
Myanmar policy. He points out that the US does not
share a border with Myanmar as does India.
Indian officials point out that since
influential people in the US see India as a
counterweight to China, Washington will not press
New Delhi to reverse its Myanmar policy. India's
engagement of the Myanmar junta checks Chinese
influence not just in Myanmar but in the Indian
Ocean as well. "So it is in the US interest too
that India pursues its present pragmatic policy
towards Myanmar," Indian officials are saying.
Officials justify India's courting of the
junta on the grounds that the West's approach of
isolating the junta and imposing economic
sanctions has not worked. It has only hurt the
people. Indian officials observe that engaging the
generals and simultaneously goading them towards
reform is likely to prove more successful.
India says that while it is engaging the
generals, it has not abandoned its commitment to
restoration of democracy in Myanmar. Pro-democracy
activists continue to enjoy sanctuary here
although they are not allowed a free rein in their
political activity from Indian soil.
When Indian President Abdul Kalam
visited Yangon this year, India offered the
generals assistance in building democratic
institutions and structures in Myanmar. Officials
say that India's approach to reform in Myanmar is
not by embarrassing and isolating the junta but by
pushing for democracy through official and
diplomatic channels and in discussions between the
leadership of the two countries.
In
public, too, India continues to call for
democracy, argue its officials.
Indeed, it
does, but the tone has changed. If in the past its
statements called on the generals to respect the
people's mandate, restore democracy and respect
human rights; today it advocates reconciliation
and welcomes moves towards restoration of
democracy.
Indian officials admit that
India's long-term interests are better served with
a democratic government in Myanmar. But for now
they need to court the junta.
Sudha
Ramachandran is an independent
journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
.)
