Taliban in search of a winning
formula By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The Taliban's spring offensive
in Afghanistan is now three months old. It is the
biggest ever mounted against foreign forces in the
country since the Taliban's ouster in 2001, and it
has taken a heavy toll on insurgency as well as
coalition forces.
And, according to one of
the Taliban's top 10 commanders who spoke to Asia
Times Online, the rising spiral of death is just
the tip of the iceberg and the coalition's
"Operation Mountain Thrust" in the southwest of
the country will be severely challenged.
Mullah Gul Mohammed Jangvi (the last name
means warrior) said by telephone from Afghanistan
the Taliban would once again alter their tactics.
Jangvi is one of the 10 members of the command
council of the Taliban. (For an earlier interview
with Jangvi, see
"We have had some initial successes, which
boosted our morale. Tarood, Sangeen and Musa Qila
districts in Helmand province are our recent
victories," Jangvi said.
"We have set a
few priorities, top-most of which is to fight only
with foreign forces and avoid fighting Afghans.
However, there are Afghans who are top of our
[hit] list, like Gul Afghan Sherzai [governor of
Nangarhar province], [President] Hamid Karzai and
the members of parliament."
Jangvi
dismissed a question that perhaps the Taliban were
on the back foot as they were frequently changing
tactics. "In the past few weeks we narrowed down
our targets and we are aiming to hit those targets
which give us optimum results.
"In the
recent past we tried to attack Kandahar airport
and US military bases. This is aimed at rooting
out American air power in these stations so that
they would not be able to shield their ground
troops in a short span of time. In the coming days
you will see more and more attacks on airfields,
and once air cover vanishes from over the heads of
coalition troops, they will be trapped everywhere
like sitting ducks."
Despite Jangvi's
optimism, though, the fact is that the Taliban
have only inflicted about 100 casualties on
coalition forces in the past three months, while
the body count of Taliban and civilians in
southwestern Afghanistan, most of them Taliban
supporters, is estimated at more than 2,000.
And critically, in some areas the
insurgency has degenerated into an unholy mess of
internecine strife, so much so that even Karzai
has decried the bloodshed and called on coalition
forces to alter their tactics as "even the Taliban
are sons of the soil".
As things stand,
with the insurgency losing some of its focus as
tribes fight each other, it only has a limited
effect on the morale of the mighty American war
machine and does not bode well for the chances of
the campaign turning the Taliban into an
emboldened force to make a comeback.
Hence
the Taliban once again changed focus by
concentrating solely on foreign forces, rather
than engaging the Afghan National Army.
Jangvi explained his optimism: "The
Taliban's command structure started off with 10
commanders, and now it is expanding. As soon as we
get back into the villages, towns and cities, we
will revive our old networks and our old command
structures.
"At present I can only divulge
that now we have commanders in all Afghan
provinces from north to south. Last year we did
not have that network. More successes bring more
strength and in the coming days the Taliban
command structure will reach up to all districts
and village levels. And once we attain that it
means that we will be returning to our old
strength, that is, around 300,000 all across
Afghanistan."
This number refers to those
Taliban who were part of the regime's
administration, police, army and other security
apparatus during Taliban rule, and who after the
Taliban retreat melted into Afghanistan's tribal
population.
"Now use your imagination,
once we negate American air power and regain our
whole strength, why can't we seize control of
Afghanistan?"
Nonetheless, losing
Afghanistan is not an option for the Americans as
even a limited victory of the Taliban up to
southwestern Afghanistan would be a new base for
an anti-US movement. This area would include the
provinces of Urzgan, Zabul and Helmand, beside a
few districts in Kandahar.
This would be a
blow to the American war machine not only in
Afghanistan but also in Iraq as the Taliban would
be in a position to establish a supply line of
manpower from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Iraq for
the resistance there. Such a line could also be
used to channel funds from Afghanistan's rampant
opium industry to the Iraqi resistance.
This is the reason why coalition forces
will keep up the pressure in the region, notably
by increasing the number of troops on the ground -
especially from Britain and the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization.
Jangvi is
unperturbed, though. "More foreign troops means
more of their casualties. This would be the time
for the world Muslim community to understand that
jihad in Afghanistan has reached a significant
level and it is time again to help the resistance
with manpower and money."
(Copyright 2006
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Syed Saleem Shahzad, Bureau
Chief, Pakistan Asia Times Online. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
