Taliban pause for fresh
breath By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - A sudden lull in the Taliban's
activities has surprised the thousands of
coalition forces that were sent to Kandahar and
other parts of southwestern Afghanistan to patrol
the deserts and the populated areas in the
scorching heat.
These fresh troops, many
of them British, now wander around without being
challenged, unlike up to just days ago after the
Taliban launched a massive spring offensive three
months ago that has cost hundreds of insurgent
lives.
Apart from sporadic armed guerrilla
attacks, the detonation of improvised explosive
devices and a few suicide missions, all sustained
battles have ceased.
A Taliban contact
told Asia Times Online that the development
was a
"break" as commanders had been told to call off
their forces until further orders. The thinking is
that the unrest in the Middle East will generate a
new wave of fury among Afghans against Israel and
its backer, the United States. The Taliban will
then renew their efforts, bolstered by increased
support on the ground among the Afghan population.
To the surprise of coalition forces on
Monday, the Taliban surrendered Sangeen (or Sangin
district) without much of a fight. In an interview
with Gul Mohammed Jangvi in Asia Times Online, the
Taliban commander announced the capture of the
district: "We have had some initial successes,
which boosted our morale. Tarood, Sangeen and Musa
Qila districts in Helmand province are our recent
victories" (Taliban in search of a winning
formula, July 12).
A source
close to the Taliban's inner circles explained to
Asia Times Online how the events in the Middle
East could impact on Afghanistan: "The Taliban aim
to stir up a national movement, not merely a
military mobilization against coalition forces.
"Therefore, issues concerning the Muslim
cause or Islam give a wake-up call, like what
happened after the Iraq war; on the issue of
Christian convert Abdul Rahman [whose possible
death sentence in Afghanistan created an uproar in
the West]; the issue of the desecration of the
Holy Koran in Guantanamo Bay prison; and when
cartoons were published in the Western press to
satirize the Prophet Mohammed. All these incidents
produced positive results for the resistance."
The Taliban are wasting no time in
capitalizing on the latest events - they are
distributing shabnamas (night messages)
with news of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon. On
the weekend, independent calls from mosques
condemned the attacks and the events were placed
in the perspective of the US role as a backer of
the Zionist state.
Political and religious
rhetoric apart, there are other reasons to turn
popular sentiment in Afghanistan against the
alliance between President Hamid Karzai and the
US. Foremost is the drought in southwestern
Afghanistan.
According to reports quoting
the Afghan Ministry of Agriculture, the harvest of
rain-fed wheat is about half of what it was last
year, and up to 2.4 million Afghans now face
hunger.
The drought has caused a massive
displacement of people to areas where they can
find food and water. The issue is generally
perceived as mismanagement on the part of the
government, which has failed to meet the food
requirements of the masses.
Taliban
sources anticipate that this discontent can be
harnessed once the "break" is over in a few weeks,
and the offensive will be resumed, including
suicide attacks in Kabul against US forces.
"At this time the Taliban will awaken
their network of over 300,000 men who were part of
their army and police during their rule
[1996-2001], and a mass mobilization movement
should be in place in the urban centers of
Afghanistan. That's how the resistance will reach
its high point of its spring offensive this year,"
sources close to the Taliban asserted.
During the "break" in operations in the
southwest, some guerrilla attacks will be staged
in southeastern Afghanistan, where in coming days
top Afghan officials and the bases of coalition
forces will be targets in such places as Laghman,
Kunar and Nanagarhar.
"The storm after the
lull will be stronger than all previous Taliban
military campaigns and Afghanistan will soon again
be the center of world attention," the sources
said.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
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