India-US nuclear deal crosses major
hurdle By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - The India-US nuclear deal
moved a significant step toward fruition when on
Wednesday, the US House of Representatives
overwhelmingly approved the US and India Nuclear
Cooperation Promotion Act by a vote of 359-68. The
bill now goes to the Senate and a conference
committee to work out differences between the two
houses of Congress.
The deal was
negotiated a year ago and announced in March. It
will allow India, a nuclear-weapons state, to
purchase nuclear fuel and reactors from abroad for
the first time in more than three
decades. The pact required
that the US Congress exempt India from certain
sections of the Atomic Energy Act.
The
House rejected at least three "killer" amendments
that sought to constrain India's strategic nuclear
deterrence. One would have required India to halt
fissile-material production as a precondition of
the nuclear deal.
The House also rejected
an amendment that would have prohibited India from
taking advantage of its new nuclear status by
diverting its domestically produced uranium for
weapons use. And the House shot down a move that
sought to audit India's fissile-material stock
annually. According to US lawmakers, India now
uses half of its domestic uranium for energy
production and half for weapons.
A
surprise move to defer a vote until India did more
to back US efforts to contain Iran also failed
decisively.
Congressman Tom Lantos said
the deal would be a "tidal shift in relations
between India and the United States'', leading to
"a new era of mutual respect and cooperation. This
will be known as the day when Congress signaled
definitively the end of the Cold War paradigm
governing interactions between New Delhi and
Washington.''
Critics argue that the deal
could enlarge India's nuclear arsenal and sends
the wrong signal to Iran and North Korea, whose
nuclear intentions Washington opposes.
"By
shipping India fuel for its civilian reactors,
this legislation potentially frees up their
[India's] entire supply of domestic uranium for
use in weapons,'' Congressman Ed Markey, head of a
bipartisan non-proliferation task force, said
before the vote.
In a last-minute effort
to scuttle the accord, lawmakers led by Markey
sent a letter on Monday to Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice demanding that the State
Department submit a required semi-annual report
that details the activities of foreigners
(including Indian firms and individuals) deemed to
have dealt with Iran or Syria in nuclear trade.
The State Department's deputy spokesman
Tom Casey, however, allayed suggestions that the
administration of President George W Bush was
withholding the report pending the passage of the
nuclear deal. The semi-annual Iran
Non-proliferation Act Compliance Report detailing
activities of foreign companies and entities that
may have assisted Iran in proliferation activities
will be out very shortly, he said, asserting there
are no political considerations that are delaying
its release to Capitol Hill.
Still a
long way to go The deal has still quite a
way to go before it can become a reality. The
Senate must also approve the pact; then the House
and Senate will vote again after US-India
negotiations on the technical details of the
agreement are completed.
India also has to
satisfy the International Atomic Energy Agency
(which has been supportive of the deal so far) on
inspection procedures for its civilian nuclear
facilities; then there is the 45-nation Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG) to contend with, with China
likely to put up some opposition to changing
international regulations to allow nuclear
transfers to India.
Some experts say that
the deal will lead to an arms race in South Asia,
with recent reports (the timing of which seems
curiously linked to the House vote) saying that
Pakistan is a building a new 1,000-megawatt
nuclear power station that could produce
weapons-grade plutonium.
Critics sought to
link the Indian deal to a report by the Institute
for Science and International Security that said
Islamabad was building a nuclear reactor able to
provide fissile material for up to 50 atomic bombs
a year. The move could signal an acceleration of
regional nuclear proliferation, and the new
reactor could be finished within a few years, the
report said.
Washington quickly
acknowledged that it already knew about Pakistan's
plans. "Pakistan is not a party to the
Non-Proliferation Treaty, nor is India, and
therefore they do develop their capabilities
independently. But we continue to discourage the
expansion and modernization of nuclear-weapons
programs, both of India and Pakistan,'' said White
House spokesman Tony Snow.
Success in
Washington is one thing, but Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh must still sell the pact to India's
own legislature against the opposition of both the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the left-wing
members who support his government, In his first
reaction after the House vote, Manmohan told
parliament that India needs to be patient as the
final version of the act will only emerge after
the Senate and the House meet.
He said the
Indian government has conveyed to Washington its
apprehensions, and it is up to the US
administration to ensure that Indian's interests
are appropriately safeguarded in the two houses.
India will then assess whether the final act meets
its requirements.
The nuclear deal has led
to a peculiar situation of the BJP and the left
talking in the same voice, with only the Congress
party members supporting the deal. In an unusual
show of solidarity, the BJP and the left, along
with smaller and regional representations, have
joined hands to press for a "resolution''
expressing the "sentiments" of the two houses of
parliament that the final pact should not
transgress the parameters laid down by the
Singh-Bush joint statement of July 18 last year.
The parties accuse the government of
selling out to the US and acquiescing to unfair
dictates that could impinge on India's independent
nuclear-weapons program and strategic security.
The BJP, normally pro-American, has called the
deal "unacceptable'' as it would make India
"perpetually dependent'' on outside sources of
nuclear energy.
On Wednesday (in India, a
day before the US House vote), Manmohan assured
parliament that his government will never
compromise in a manner that is inconsistent with
the July 18, 2005, Indo-US joint statement on
civilian nuclear energy. In the end, however, the
deal will and should boil down to meeting India's
growing energy needs.
Oil is expensive,
coal causes pollution and reserves are being
depleted, while hydro energy brings about problems
related to environment and rehabilitation. In this
context, nuclear and renewable energy sources need
to be tapped aggressively if India is to sustain
more than 8% growth in the long term.
India has 14 reactors in commercial
operation and nine under construction. Currently,
nuclear power supplies a measly 3% of India's
electricity; by 2050, nuclear power is expected to
provide 25% of the country's power. Given its
limited uranium reserves, India will have to look
at international resources and technology as well
as tap its huge thorium reserves, about 25% of the
world's total, to sustain a long-term
nuclear-power program.
Manmohan recently
said: "The speed with which we can develop nuclear
power is constrained by the availability of
uranium. The civil nuclear agreement we have
entered into with the United States, and our
discussions with the NSG, should help in
accelerating the development of nuclear energy.''
India needs the nuclear deal with
appropriate safeguards to its sovereignty in
place.
Siddharth Srivastava is a
New Delhi-based journalist.
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2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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