India's foray into Central
Asia By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Tajik President Emomali
Rakhmonov's five-day visit to India that ended on
Thursday might not have grabbed much media
attention in New Delhi, but it is in Tajikistan
that India is taking quiet strides toward
furthering its ambition of becoming a global
player: India's first military base abroad will
become operational in Tajikistan soon.
During Rakhmonov's visit, the two
countries signed pacts on strengthening
cooperation in the fields of energy, science and
technology, foreign-office consultation, and
cultural exchange. India also offered to
rehabilitate the Varzob-1 hydropower plant in
Tajikistan.
Two days before the Tajik
president's visit, the India-Tajikistan joint
working group (JWG) on counter-terrorism met in
Delhi. At the JWG meeting, the two sides agreed on
bilateral mechanisms
to
exchange information on various aspects of
terrorism, including the financing of terrorism,
that affect their two countries. India also
offered to provide Tajikistan with
counter-terrorism training.
This
cooperation is, however, just the tip of the
iceberg. Less visible and more significant is the
India-Tajik cooperation at Ayni Air Base, near the
Tajik capital Dushanbe. Work on the base is
expected to be completed next month, and the base
will become operational by the year's end.
India is constructing three hangars at
Ayni, two of which will be used by Indian
aircraft. India will station about 12 MiG-29
bombers there. The third hangar will be used by
the Tajik air force. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is
also stationing trainer aircraft under a 2002
defense-cooperation agreement whereby India has
been training the Tajik air force.
Neither
New Delhi nor Dushanbe officially admits to an
Indian air base at Ayni. Delhi maintains that it
is only renovating this base. The first reports of
India's intentions surfaced in 2002, and
speculation gathered momentum in 2003 and into
April this year when reports indicated that
India's base at Ayni would become operational by
end-2006.
India and Tajikistan were on the
same side during the Afghan civil war in the
1990s. Both opposed the Taliban regime in
Afghanistan and backed the Northern Alliance. In
the late 1990s, India set up a 25-bed hospital at
Farkhor, near Afghanistan's northern border, where
injured Northern Alliance fighters battling the
Taliban were treated.
According to Rahul
Bedi, Jane's Defense Weekly's correspondent in
Delhi, India supplied the Northern Alliance with
high-altitude-warfare equipment worth US$8
million. The Northern Alliance also received input
on strategy from Indian "advisers". Technicians
from the Aviation Research Center of the Research
and Analysis Wing (India's external intelligence
agency) repaired the Northern Alliance's
Soviet-made Mi-17 and Mi-35 attack helicopters. It
was out of Tajikistan that India channeled this
help to the Northern Alliance.
It is
Tajikistan's geographic location that has drawn
India to this former Soviet republic. Tajikistan
shares borders with China, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan
and Kyrgyzstan. A narrow stretch of Afghan
territory separates Tajikistan from
Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
The
significance of this region for India's security
is immense. It is close to areas where scores of
camps for jihadist and anti-India terrorist groups
are based, and it is in the proximity of territory
where Pakistan and China are engaged in massive
military cooperation. Besides, Tajikistan is in
Central Asia, a gas-rich region in which India has
growing interests.
There are several
reasons underpinning India's interest in a base at
Tajikistan, one being the Pakistan factor. The
Pakistani incursion at Kargil in 1999 laid bare
the failure of Indian intelligence and opened
India's eyes to the need for a military presence
outside its borders, Phunchok Stobdan, research
fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and
Analyses in New Delhi, told Asia Times Online.
Such a presence in Tajikistan, India realized,
would enable it to monitor anti-India activities
in the region.
After the fall of the
Taliban regime, India was determined not to lose
the foothold it had gained in Afghanistan thanks
to its ties with the Northern Alliance in the late
1990s. Delhi was anxious not to allow Pakistani
influence to grow again in Afghanistan. This was
behind India's decision to remain at Ayni/Farkhor
after the fall of the Taliban, say Indian
intelligence sources. A military base in
Tajikistan is attractive as it also enhances
India's options in the event of war with Pakistan.
From Tajikistan, India would be able to strike
Pakistan's rear.
It is its presence at
Ayni that has enabled India to play a significant
role in Afghanistan's reconstruction and stability
since 2002. Since Pakistan does not allow India
overland access to Afghanistan, India has had to
channel its economic and relief assistance to
Afghanistan through Farkhor. The IAF airlifts
supplies to Ayni, which are then transported to
Farkhor and onward to Afghanistan by road.
India's growing military profile in the
region might have been prompted by the need to
counter Pakistan's influence, but there is more to
Ayni Air Base than India-Pakistan rivalry. A base
at Ayni enables India to project power in Central
Asia. It is testimony to the fact that India is no
longer content with a geostrategic role in South
Asia; its ambitions extend outside the region as
well.
India's foray into Central Asia is
also fueled by its interests in the region's vast
gas reserves. India is among the actors in the
"New Great Game" - the scramble for Central Asia's
resources. Bedi points out that "though India
remains powerless to engineer or overtly influence
the 'New Game', its size, military and nuclear
capability make it a not altogether insignificant
part of the complex jigsaw puzzle".
Not
surprisingly, India's "forward policy" in Central
Asia has generated unease in Islamabad and
Beijing. Pakistan has perceived India's air base
at Ayni as part of the Indian attempt to "encircle
Pakistan".
As for China, steps are afoot
to counterbalance India's rising profile in
Tajikistan. Stobdan points out that Chinese-Tajik
cooperation is growing. Visits by senior Chinese
leaders to Tajikistan have been followed up with
generous military assistance to that country.
While growing Chinese engagement with the Tajiks
is perhaps motivated more by the increasing US
presence in the region, India is no doubt a factor
weighing on Chinese minds.
India has come
under pressure over Ayni Air Base from an
unexpected quarter - Russia, its friend of several
decades during the Cold War years. Russian
arm-twisting seems to have resulted in India
agreeing to joint maintenance with Russia of Ayni
Air Base. While economic consideration might have
played a role in India considering joint
maintenance of the base, arm-twisting seems to
have forced the decision.
India's new
friend the United States, however, is not very
worried about Delhi's foray into Central Asia, as
it sees India's growing profile there as a check
on Russian and Chinese influence in the region.
India has become the fourth power after
Russia, the US and Germany to have a base in
Central Asia. As a small but not insignificant
player in the "New Great Game" in Central Asia,
India announced that it had interests beyond its
immediate neighborhood. With the air base at Ayni,
India has signaled that it is a keen contestant in
Central Asia's "great base race" as well.
Sudha Ramachandran is an
independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us
about sales, syndication and republishing
.)
