A death Pakistan can ill
afford By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The killing of Baloch
nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Bugti, a prominent
politician who served many times in top government
positions, at the hands of Pakistani security
agencies on the weekend will ignite the movement
for a "free Balochistan".
At the same
time, it deals a powerful blow from the Pakistani
military establishment against President General
Pervez
Musharraf for him to step
down.
Bugti, 79, was killed in a
large-scale battle in Balochistan, where
nationalists have been battling for years to
secure a better deal for themselves in the
energy-rich province, if not independence from
Islamabad.
Bugti, a former chief minister
of Balochistan, went underground this year to join
the campaign against an infrastructure
program, including key pipelines for the gas
industry. In response, the central government has
considerably stepped up its military presence in
the sensitive province, which borders Iran and
Afghanistan.
Bugti, who has frequently
demanded the withdrawal of security forces from
the province, was killed in his cave hideout along
with some male members of his family. Protests
immediately spread throughout the region, a curfew
was imposed and a strike was to be called on
Monday.
Quetta, the provincial capital,
was still cut off on Monday as the main roads into
and out of the city were blocked by protesters.
All flights from Quetta to Karachi, Lahore and
Islamabad were also canceled.
Contacts in
Pakistan's security apparatus tell Asia Times
Online that military intelligence, which was
responsible for supervising military operations in
Balochistan, had known the location of Bugti's
hideout for a long time. Their dispatches to the
chief of army staff - Musharraf - kept him
informed of all developments, including Bugti's
serious illness two months ago.
Apparently, Musharraf directed that Bugti
be isolated rather than killed as he did not want
him to be turned into a martyr. He reasoned it
would be better to have Bugti on the run than the
clamor for a Baloch nation being intensified.
News of Bugti's death, therefore, not only
inflamed Balochis, but caught the army's top brass
by surprise. They are now bracing for a spurt in
nationalist activities in Balochistan.
For
Musharraf, the killing, which can only be
interpreted as being deliberate and against his
orders, sends a powerful message from elements in
the army that all is not well in the barracks.
There have been rumors of coup plot for some
while. The general is unlikely to step down.
Rather, he will hit back at those undermining him.
Already, protests over Bugti's death have
spread to the port city of Karachi, where a red
alert has been declared.
On Sunday, the
influential six-party religious alliance, the
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), staged a public
gathering in Karachi against proposed amendments
to rape laws, which activists say gives too much
power to law-enforcement agencies.
The
MMA, however, sees the proposed amendments as part
of a Western-inspired (US) agenda to remove
elements of sharia (Islamic) law from the
constitution.
The leading opposition
party, the Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarian
(PPPP), led by former premier Benazir Bhutto, has
now also sided against the bill.
The
Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy,
comprising the PPPP and the Pakistan Muslim League
led by former premier Nawaz Sharif, had distanced
itself from the MMA's agitations over the bill.
But Bugti's death has washed away all
these differences and the alliance joined the MMA
in its Karachi rally. It was in essence convened
against the women's bill, but it soon turned into
a rally condemning Bugti's killing and Musharraf.
The incident comes at a time when the
opposition is agitating for a no-confidence motion
against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in parliament.
With their newfound spirit of cooperation, this
effort - and their general anti-Musharraf campaign
- will intensify.
'War on terror'
interrupted Bugti's killing is likely to
impact US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
operations in Balochistan, which has become a
strategic back yard for the Taliban.
Musharraf is expected to stop the FBI's
activities immediately, leaving his relations with
the US even further strained. Musharraf is due to
meet President George W Bush in Washington next
month at an important stage in the "war on
terror".
Some seven US delegations have
been sent to Pakistan since Bush visited the
country a few months ago. Each delegation
delivered a strong reminder about Pakistan's role
in the "war on terror" and how Washington
supported - both in spirit and tangibly - the
military-democratic government.
Pakistan
has consistently drawn criticism for not doing
enough to root out al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitives
on its soil, and for the widespread support that
the Taliban receives in the tribal areas of North
and South Waziristan in North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP), and Balochistan.
This
criticism has intensified in recent months as the
Taliban go from strength to strength, waging their
fiercest campaign since being ousted in 2001.
Contacts told Asia Times Online they
expected that very soon the Taliban would announce
the revival of the "Islamic Emirates of
Afghanistan" in that country's southwest, from
where a countrywide offensive will be staged.
For Washington, this would mean a total
failure in Afghanistan - and Pakistan in large
part would be held to blame. This is because the
US has based much of its strategy on information
fed to it by the Pakistani establishment.
For example, coalition forces believed
that the Taliban's spring offensive would begin
from Khost, Paktia, Paktika and Kunar, as these
areas are close to the Waziristan tribal areas.
In fact, it was launched from southwestern
Afghanistan - Zabul, Kandahar, Orzgan, Helmand
etc, and Balochistan, not NWFP, is the Taliban's
strategic back yard in Pakistan.
Musharraf
was obviously stung by the criticism from the US
and placed his own military intelligence at the
head of affairs, curtailing the role of the
powerful Inter-Services Intelligence.
However, this was not the end of his
embarrassment.
This month, FBI operators
met with Pakistani officials and with the help of
law-enforcement agencies conducted massive raids
in which a large number of Taliban were arrested.
A guarded estimate suggests as many as 300, and
many of them were in Quetta and its surrounds, as
well as towns on the border with Afghanistan.
It has emerged that during an earlier
exchange of notes between Pakistani intelligence
organizations and the US, American officials named
a top retired Pakistani army official as
orchestrating the Taliban's strategies. The
implication was that this was done with the tacit
approval of the Pakistani establishment.
Musharraf ordered an investigation in
which a few top clerics associated with the MMA
based in Balochistan were probed. These clerics
traveled to Karachi, and at some point met with a
senior official at the US consulate in Karachi.
Pakistani intelligence suspects that
information leaked from this channel was then
presented to Pakistan, which had no option but to
launch the massive operation in Balochistan.
Musharraf certainly has some explaining to
do in Washington. There are strong rumors from
Washington that the Americans would welcome a
"coup" against Musharraf, with the hope that his
replacement would be more effective in the "war on
terror".
This anti-Musharraf feeling finds
resonance on the home front. There are growing
calls in the military ranks - and even in his
cabinet - for him to step down.
With
Bugti's death, the united - for now at least -
opposition will exploit the situation to the full.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
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nfrastructure
program, including key pipelines for the gas
industry. In response, the central government has
considerably stepped up its military presence in
the sensitive province, which borders Iran and
Afghanistan. 
