The knife at Pakistan's
throat By Syed Saleem Shahzad
MIRANSHAH, North Waziristan - "I can see
slit throats beneath these turbans and beards"
were the words of Hajaj bin Yusuf, an 8th-century
tyrant in what is now Iraq, as he witnessed a
gathering of leading religious and political
figures.
A similar thought occurred to
this writer as he attended the largest ever
gathering of Pakistani Taliban, tribal elders and
politicians in Miranshah, the tribal capital of
North Waziristan, on Wednesday. Fire and blood
were in the air as momentous events
loomed
over the Pakistani tribal areas of North and South
Waziristan, where the Taliban are in complete
control.
The
tribal areas bordering Afghanistan's volatile
southern and southwestern provinces are once again
a focus of the "war on
terror" and are likely to soon become as
significant to the United States as Afghanistan
itself.
The Americans are pointing
directly at the two Waziristans as the primary
conduit for the suicide bombers who are currently
playing havoc with the US-NATO-led war machine in
Afghanistan, and a safe haven for enemy
combatants. The US now has come up with a plan to
confront the strategic arm of the Taliban based on
the Pakistani side of the border.
The
anti-US forces, meanwhile, are taking
countermeasures, and the Pakistani government is
trying to find a safe position for itself between
the antagonists.
Negotiations have begun
to finalize new rules for dealing with the tribal
region. Last month Pakistani Vice Chief of Army
Staff General Ehsan Saleem Hayat attended the
conference of the Tripartite Commission
(representing Afghanistan, Pakistan and the forces
of the US and the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization) in Kabul, and General John Abizaid
of US Centcom (Central Command) has traveled to
Pakistan to finalize a blueprint.
Sources
say the Americans are set on a plan of hot pursuit
of enemy combatants across the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and they want a clear
demarcation of the Pakistani tribal areas that
have long been volatile and which they say should
be part of the Afghanistan front in the "war on
terror".
Last month, Pakistan considered
the issue and offered in response a geographical
demarcation of the border and a fence along it. In
fact the border in this region is the imaginary
Durand Line, which passes through mountains and
populated areas, and is impossible to seal. The
only practical solution, as far as Washington is
concerned, is hot pursuit of enemy combatants into
their refuges in Pakistan.
On Wednesday in
Miranshah, hundreds of people attended a ceremony
for new madrassa graduates in
what was considered the largest ever gathering of
people from the two Waziristans. The gathering was
also a manifestation of the broader current now
flowing
through the tribal areas - the imminent arrival of
the US military.
The ceremony was
scheduled soon after negotiations started in the
two Waziristans between Pakistani authorities on
one side and the Pakistani Taliban and
Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) on the
other. Jamiat-i-Ulama-i-Islam (JUI-F) is the
political party of Pakistani opposition leader
Maulana Fazlur Rehman, and is the only party still
working in the two Waziristans. JUI-F keeps in
close contact with the mujahideen who call
themselves the Pakistani Taliban.
At this
meeting, the authorities, still smarting from the
rout of Islamabad's forces by the tribals in both
Waziristans when the government tried to impose
its will in the region, declared that under the
status quo the government could neither withdraw
its military nor prevent US-led forces from
entering the tribal areas.
The JUI-F
itself is desperately looking for ways to restrict
the Pakistani Taliban's ambitions. The latter
movement is clearly intent on moving into the
cities, especially those politically influenced by
the JUI-F, and becoming a major power player in
the country as a whole.
The JUI-F,
therefore, is forging a strategy with the
Pakistani Taliban under which the Taliban will
retain de facto control of the Waziristans while
the political-cum-religious leadership, including
the JUI-F, will appear to be running the show -
and, at the same time, be shielding the Taliban
from US-led forces. The Miranshah gathering was a
manifestation of this new strategy.
At the
gathering, mujahideen leader Maulana Sadiq Noor
and a representative of Gul Badar (chief of the
Pakistani Taliban in North Waziristan), as well as
other members of the mujahideen shura
(council), were seated on a stage while the
leaders of the JUI-F delivered the speeches. Said
an organizer belonging to the student wing of the
JUI-F, "Mujahideen will not be allowed to speak;
rather they will only sit on the back benches on
the stage."
The gathering presaged the
future setup in the Waziristans. The mujahideen
will remain in the background and the non-militant
face of leadership, in the form of local tribal
elders, the JUI-F and religious leaders, will be
visible. This will enable the Pakistani
authorities to justify their proposal to fence the
Durand Line rather than allow US-led forces a free
hand in the tribal areas.
Meanwhile the
"guests" - foreign anti-US fighters including
Uzbeks, Arabs and Chechens - who are living in
North Waziristan have had their own command
structures dismantled and been asked to join the
central mujahideen force of commander Gul Badar,
or simply to scatter into ordinary tribal society.
Certainly, there is no overt connection
between the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Pakistani
Taliban, yet the new setup in the Waziristans
clearly echoes that in Lebanon, where Hezbollah
hides itself behind many thick curtains while
remaining in a position of power. It was precisely
this setup that enabled Lebanon to defend its
territorial integrity and political interests
during the recent Israeli invasion.
Neither the US nor Islamabad knows the
strength of the Pakistani Taliban in the mountain
fastnesses of the two Waziristans. Pakistan has
offered a general amnesty for all previously
wanted people, and military checkpoints are manned
only at three or four points on the borders of the
region. The Taliban, meanwhile, call the shots
everywhere.
Such was the situation until
Wednesday, when the two Waziristans embarked on a
new phase in which US military campaigns seem
unavoidable. Cognizant of developments and intent
on saving turbans, beards and throats, thick
curtains have been drawn.
Syed
Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan
bureau chief.
(Copyright 2006 Asia
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terror" and are likely to soon become as
significant to the United States as Afghanistan
itself. 
flowing
through the tribal areas - the imminent arrival of
the US military. 
