The big story this weekend was whether
Osama bin Laden is dead or alive. Three facts are
worth noting. First, the intense global popularity
of the topic. Second, the Pakistani, Saudi and
Western intelligence services could not confirm
the news of his death. And third, even though the
story of bin Laden's death was leaked from French
intelligence sources, they initially refused to
confirm or deny it. Instead, the French government
was annoyed
by the fact
that the story was leaked and wanted to
investigate this.
As much as the world has
remained obsessed with bin Laden, an
important chapter of George W
Bush's so-called "war on terror" will not be
closed until the end of the leader of al-Qaeda - a
man who has become a legend in the streets of
Muslim countries. In their view, he dared to
challenge the sole superpower and got away with
it. If he is still alive, one wonders whether bin
Laden is wisecracking among his cohorts, "Reports
of my death are greatly exaggerated."
Call
it the high efficiency of al-Qaeda to keep the
news of bin Laden's life or death or his
whereabouts highly shrouded in confusion, or the
continued incompetence of the intelligence
services, and even that of Pakistan and Saudi
Arabia in failing to find convincing proof on the
subject.
Asia Times Online on September 14
reported that bin Laden recently traveled from the
South Waziristan tribal area in Pakistan to
somewhere in the eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar
and Nooristan, or possibly Bajour, a small tribal
agency in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province
(see Osama's on the move
again).
The US Central
Intelligence Agency knows for sure that bin Laden
survived the Tora Bora campaign in Afghanistan in
2001 and was heard on the National Security
Agency's listening channels apologizing to his
cohorts for the loss of lives. After that, he
seems to have disappeared into thin air. There
have been audio tapes of his statements, but there
remained ample uncertainty as to when those
statements were made.
The IntelCenter - a
Washington-based entity that monitors terrorism
communications - was certain on June 29 that bin
Laden was alive. In an audio tape, the voice
believed to be that of bin Laden eulogized the
death of Musab al-Zarqawi, who had been killed as
a result of US air strikes in Iraq that month.
There have been reports that bin Laden has
had health problems with his kidneys and was known
to have been dependent at some time on a dialysis
machine.
However, if that report was true,
being on the run and living in the primitive
conditions of the Waziristan tribal areas in
Pakistan near the Afghan border, or even in
Pakistan-administered Kashmir - as several reports
surmise about his hideouts - in all likelihood
could have killed him.
Those in the
business of speculating on the subject have also
issued regular caveats to make themselves
believable by pointing out that bin Laden has the
professional services of Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, his
deputy in al-Qaeda and a competent surgeon. But
having a surgeon at one's disposal may not mean
very much if he cannot have access to modern
medical equipment or medicines.
Now the
reports are that bin Laden died of typhoid. The
source was the Direction Generale des Services
Exterieurs (DGSE - French intelligence service),
which apparently relied on Saudi sources, which in
turn might have relied on Pakistani sources.
According to that report, the chief of
al-Qaeda became "a victim of typhoid in Pakistan
on August 23". The lack of medical facilities was
the reason cited. However, no French official was
willing to confirm the report. About the only
known aspect of the report is the French regional
newspaper L'Est Republicain, which cited a
"confidential document" from the DGSE, and that
the French government was about to investigate the
source of the leak.
The Saudi sources were
reportedly confident of the reliability of their
information, but even they could not say where bin
Laden was buried, or produce witnesses who either
saw his body or were present during funeral
prayers. Finally, the Saudi sources issued a
statement on Sunday that he was not dead.
When one looks at the believability factor
of all the intelligence agencies involved in
speculating on the subject, off the record,
Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) has
the best record. One such source has claimed that
al-Qaeda "had already undergone a leadership
transition which has seen Ayman al-Zawahiri, the
group's second-highest-ranking leader, emerge as
the key decision-maker". Still, no one is willing
to identify himself as the source of that
statement.
However, one has to keep in
mind that the ISI has a profound agenda of its
own. Some of its high-level functionaries (not
necessarily highest-level officials) have
religious sympathies toward bin Laden. Then there
are elements in the Pakistani government - whose
identities remain a mystery - who might not want
the truth to be out, for political reasons.
US intelligence sources in Washington and
Afghanistan - considering that their credibility
worldwide has been shattered in the aftermath of
the scandalous abuse of intelligence by the Bush
administration before invading Iraq - were taking
the prudent option of expressing high skepticism
regarding bin Laden's death. The most amazing
aspect of this whole episode is that Pakistani
President General Pervez Musharraf was in
Washington making a joint appearance with Bush,
yet no one bothered to ask him during a press
conference about the accuracy of the reports of
bin Laden's death.
Why is it that a number
of intelligence agencies are speculating about bin
Laden's death? First, he remains a very high
source of intrigue and interest to the world at
large. Second, a number of countries, including
the US, have high stakes attached to the subject,
for different reasons.
For the United
States, his death would bring to a close a major
chapter for Bush's "war on terror". Any reader of
Bob Woodward's two books on the state of affairs
since September 11, 2001, or that of James Risen,
or Ron Suskind, knows too well how obsessive Bush
is about bringing in bin Laden "dead or alive",
preferably dead. Considering that he badly needs a
victory of some kind to improve the chances of
re-election of Republican legislators in the House
of Representatives and the Senate in the mid-term
election in November, Bush could use bin Laden's
death - even if it is not the result of US
military operations - to win congressional seats.
Third, bin Laden's death would be a great
relief to the Saudi government, whose credibility
within its own borders has deteriorated since
September 11. Even though King Abdullah bin Abdul
Aziz is a more effective leader than his late
half-brother Fahd, no one really knows how popular
bin Laden remains in the kingdom. As long as he is
alive, there is a chance that al-Qaeda in Saudi
Arabia could score a major operational victory and
enhance the level of instability inside the
country. Even if he has died, bin Laden's legacy
would serve as an important source of political
activism for the pro-al-Qaeda elements to continue
their struggle to bring an end to the Saudi
dynasty.
Fourth, Musharraf is in great
need of some sort of victory in Bush's "war on
terror" to score points with the US. As hard as he
has been trying to appease Washington, there is no
end to US demands. The US Congress has been
especially vocal in airing its skepticism that
Musharraf is not doing enough to bring an end to
al-Qaeda.
The inability of the US
government to do something - such as the
eradication of the Taliban or al-Qaeda or bringing
an end to the Iraqi insurgency - is conveniently
explained away as an unswerving outcome of the
"unwillingness" of America's "allies" in those
countries to "do enough". It does not really
matter that the alleged unwillingness is really a
reflection of the Americans' inability.
That is how the political games of
"success and failure" are played in Washington.
Legislators - especially those belonging to the
Republican Party - are in dire need of scoring
some sort of victory related to the "war on
terror", which is going badly for them and for
Bush. However, since Bush can no longer run for
office, legislators have to worry only about
saving themselves from the wrath of the American
public for supporting a "war" without end - a
concept that the public is increasingly depicting
as a political ploy of the Republicans (and Bush)
to win elections.
The global Islamist
movement may get something of a jolt if bin Laden
is indeed dead. But there is not likely to be a
long-term negative effect on the activities of
jihadis, the chief strength of whom is the ability
to remain a self-starting phenomenon in different
regions.
Most important, the fate of the
Bush administration's "war on terror" lies in
Afghanistan and Iraq. Islamist forces increasingly
envisage President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq as US
"puppets" who should be ousted, and the systems
over which they preside smashed.
What is
even worse is that - considering the rising
spirals of turmoil, violence and bloodshed - an
increasing number of Afghans and Iraqis are
beginning to share that perception. That is the
most dangerous growing development. Bin Laden is
no longer the chief threat to the "war on terror",
either dead or alive.
Ehsan
Ahrari is the CEO of Strategic Paradigms, an
Alexandria, Virginia-based defense consultancy. He
can be reached at eahrari@cox.net or
stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His columns appear
regularly in Asia Times Online. His website:
www.ehsanahrari.com.
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