Bangladesh: A lull before the
storm By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - A political deadlock over who
should head a caretaker government to oversee
upcoming general elections in Bangladesh resulted
in violent protests erupting on the streets of
Dhaka over the weekend.
While the
situation appears to have calmed somewhat, this
could well be the lull before the storm. With
disagreements over the conduct of elections that
brought the opposition parties out on the
streets still lingering, more
unrest and bloodletting can be expected in the
months ahead.
Under the constitution, at
the end of a government's five-year term, a
non-partisan caretaker government takes charge and
is responsible for organizing elections within 90
days. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led
coalition government's term ended on Saturday and
elections are due in January.
It is the
composition of the caretaker government that is at
the heart of the current political standoff. The
14-party opposition alliance led by the Awami
League (AL) alleges that the BNP government has
appointed loyalists to the interim administration.
It has been threatening to boycott the election if
the caretaker administration is not in neutral
hands.
Several rounds of talks between the
BNP and the opposition to break the impasse met
with little success. The government simply refused
to reconsider its decision to appoint former
justice K M Hasan - a BNP member prior to joining
the judiciary - as the chief adviser of the
interim government.
Neither was it willing
to remove chief election commissioner M A Aziz and
his deputies, who are known to be biased in favor
of the BNP. With the interim administration due to
take charge on Saturday and the BNP showing no
signs of relenting, the issue exploded into
violent protests on the streets.
Protests
last weekend left at least 25 people dead and more
than 500 injured, when rampaging mobs of
opposition activists clashed with the police. BNP
and AL supporters fought pitched battles in
several neighborhoods in Dhaka.
On
Saturday, as the situation on the streets showed
no signs of calming, the political crisis took a
new turn when Hasan declined to head the caretaker
government a few hours before he was to take over
from Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. This prompted
President Iajuddin Ahmed to step in to take
additional charge as chief adviser of the interim
government.
At first, the opposition
expressed unhappiness with Ahmed at the helm of
the caretaker administration. It subsequently
toned down its opposition. "We neither welcome the
new caretaker government nor reject it," AL chief
Hasina Wajed said. "We hope the president will be
neutral and impartial in conducting the next
general election. We will keep him under watch,"
Wajed said, signaling the opposition's conditional
support for the interim administration.
On
the face of it, it does seem that the crisis has
been averted. But this could well be a temporary
truce. "The opposition will return to street
protests," said Smruti Pattanaik, research fellow
at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses
in New Delhi. None of the demands it put forward
have been met. It has not called off the street
protests yet and has indicated that it is going to
continue with its campaign for electoral reforms.
The opposition has placed before the
president a set of demands, including reforms of
the Election Commission and pruning of the civil
and police administration ahead of the election.
"We have given the president until November 3 to
meet all our demands," Wajed said.
The
issue of the president taking over as chief of the
interim administration is not settled. "The
president's swearing-in as chief adviser of the
interim constitution is unconstitutional," said
Pattanaik. Pro-opposition lawyers in Bangladesh
say the president's move is likely to be
challenged in the courts and could be struck down,
triggering a new confrontation.
What makes
more unrest a near-certainty is the fact that the
election process is unlikely to be free or fair.
Of the four institutions that will play a crucial
role in the general election, three - the
presidency, the head of the caretaker
administration, and the Election Commission -
either are politically biased, are in some sort of
crisis or have lost credibility in the eyes of the
public. The fourth - the armed forces - have in
recent years maintained a low profile, but this
could change.
It almost did over the
weekend, claim political observers in Dhaka. As
law and order spiraled out of control in the
cities, there were rumors of the armed forces
being called in to aid the civil administration in
quelling the violence and ending the crisis. Many
feared that Bangladesh was on the brink of a
military coup.
Bangladesh is not new to
having the generals in the political arena. It
spent more than 15 years under military rule since
it broke away from Pakistan in 1971. Democracy was
restored in 1990, but the political scene remains
explosive, dominated by the bitter rivalry between
the BNP and the AL. While the roots of this
rivalry might be political, it has been kept alive
by the personal animosity between its leaders -
Zia and Wajed - rather than substantial
ideological differences. And sadly, this "battle
between the begums" has undermined the functioning
of Bangladesh's political institutions.
The BNP and the AL have alternated in
power since 1990. When in power, both parties
refuse to listen to the opposition. When out of
power, both parties boycott parliament and call
for crippling nationwide strikes. The Awami
League, for example, has refused to attend
parliament for most of this year; the BNP did the
same when the AL was in power from 1996-2001. Both
parties are therefore responsible for grinding
Bangladesh's democratic process to a halt.
Media reports have been drawing attention
to the shadow of the armed forces over the
political scene. Indeed, the armed forces are
waiting in the wings. "But a coup is not
imminent," said Pattanaik. Since 1990, the
Bangladeshi military has not been as politically
active as its counterpart in Pakistan. "It will
adopt a wait-and-watch policy and intervene when
the situation really deteriorates, when all
options have run out and when it is sure of some
support among the public."
The more
immediate danger is that posed by the Islamist
parties and outfits, whose influence has grown
significantly in recent years. In the 2001
elections, the Jamaat-e-Islami and the Islamic
Oikya Jote won 20 seats between them. They joined
the BNP to form a coalition government and were
allotted ministries. They have used their stint in
government to consolidate their influence
considerably. They could do better in the coming
elections.
The principal beneficiary of
the political impasse and unrest "has been the
increasingly influential Islamist fringe, led by
legitimate parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami but
extending to the violently militant Jagrata Muslim
Janata Bangladesh and the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen
Bangladesh", points out an International Crisis
Group report on Bangladesh. "Islamic militancy has
flourished in a time of dysfunctional politics,
popular discontent and violence," the report
warns.
Support for the religious parties
is growing not because Bangladeshis are drawn by
their fundamentalist vision - linguistic rather
than religious nationalism remains the predominant
driving force in Bangladesh, although this is
being whittled down - but because these parties
have an image of being more competent and
organized.
"Parties like the
Jamaat-e-Islami and the Islami Oikya Jote have a
distinct ideology and vision. They are cadre-based
and better organized," said Pattanaik. They seem
more dedicated and driven. In a political scenario
that is marked by squabbling and chaos, the
religious right offers efficiency and order,
making it an attractive option for a growing
number of people.
In recent years,
Islamist extremism and militancy have grown in
Bangladesh. Islamic militants have targeted
intellectuals, secularists, religious minorities
and left-wing activists. AL leaders and activists
have been killed. In August last year, some 450
crude bombs went off simultaneously across the
country. The explosions were small and the
casualties low, but the scale of the operation was
worrying. The attack was followed a few months
later by Bangladesh's first-ever suicide bombings.
Bombs and grenades have been hurled into
political rallies. Wajed narrowly escaped a bomb
attack on a rally she was addressing in August
2004. In January 2005, Shah AMS Kibria, a former
finance minister, and four others were killed in a
grenade attack on an AL rally.
It is not
just street fighting then that Bangladesh needs to
worry about in the run-up to elections; there is
the danger of terrorism.
Sudha
Ramachandran is an independent
journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.
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