Good
deals, but no nukes for
Pakistan By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Speculation in the run-up to
Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Pakistan
indicated that deals that would "find no parallel
in history" were in the offing. Specifically, the
reports suggested that Hu would announce a deal
with Pakistan promising civilian nuclear
cooperation that would match the India-US deal.
In the event, Hu made no such offer, but
there were plenty of other goodies to compensate
for the lack of a nuclear deal. The 18 agreements
ranging from defense cooperation to energy included
a
free-trade agreement (FTA) that is expected to
boost bilateral trade from US$4.26 billion last
year to $15 billion within five years. The two
countries also have agreed on a five-year plan to
boost economic ties. Besides, Chinese and
Pakistani companies have finalized 13
joint-venture agreements worth $3 billion. And Hu
inaugurated a special economic zone near Lahore,
which has been set up for Chinese business.
Sino-Pakistani defense cooperation has
been taken to a new level with China agreeing to
collaborate in the production of an airborne
warning and control system (AWACS). Pakistan's air
force is already collaborating with China in the
co-development and co-production of the JF-17
Thunder fighter aircraft. With regard to civilian
nuclear energy, China, which has already helped
build a 300-megawatt nuclear plant and is building
another, reaffirmed its commitment to "continue to
carry out such cooperation".
Sino-Pakistan
cooperation in many fields goes back several
decades, and both countries are effusive in their
description of their friendship. During his visit
to Pakistan, Hu described bilateral relations as
"higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the Indian
Ocean and sweeter than honey", while Pakistani
President General Pervez Musharraf spoke of the
"evergreen relationship" between the two
countries.
And indeed the relationship has
been an "all-weather friendship", having survived
the region's turbulent politics as well as major
realignments in international politics. A shared
antagonism toward India keeps the friendship
alive.
Pakistan sees China as its most
dependable ally. Beijing is Pakistan's largest
supplier of conventional weapons and has played a
key role in the latter's nuclear and missile
programs. It has contributed significantly to the
country's economic development. It is partnering
in the construction of a port at Gwadar,
contributing technical expertise and the bulk of
the funding for the project.
For China,
Pakistan is a useful counterweight to India. This
is behind its efforts at building the country's
economic and military muscle. Pakistan also
provides China with a link to the Muslim world.
But it was in the nuclear-power arena that
Pakistanis had pinned their hopes. Media reports
cited "sources" as saying that China had agreed to
supply four nuclear power plants, while Pakistan
was insisting on six. Apparently, Pakistani
authorities were so sure of getting a deal that
the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission had even
selected sites for the six new power plants.
"These expectations have been dashed with Hu
not announcing any grand nuclear deal," a
Pakistani civil servant told Asia Times Online.
"All that Pakistan got was a vaguely worded
announcement of further collaboration."
Elaborating on other reasons for Pakistan's
disappointment he pointed to the "paradigm shift
in China's position with regard to civilian
nuclear cooperation with India".
During
Hu's visit to India, Beijing and New Delhi agreed
to cooperate in civilian nuclear energy, a move
that has been interpreted in some circles as a
significant shift, given the decades-long hostile
nuclear relationship between the two countries.
Delhi is hoping that the shift will lead to
support from China for the India-US nuclear deal
when it comes up before the Nuclear Suppliers'
Group.
"Of course, India would have liked
China to have explicitly endorsed the deal, but
that would have been expecting too much of the
Chinese at this juncture," an official in India's
Ministry of External Affairs told Asia Times
Online.
While some in India might be
rubbing their hands in glee that the Pakistanis
did not get the nuclear deal they were dreaming
about, China watchers here are cautious in their
assessment of Hu's Pakistan visit. They are
pointing out that there is no reason for Islamabad
to be disappointed as the Chinese have, as always,
been generous with Pakistan.
Take for
instance China's offer of collaboration with
Pakistan on AWACS. "This is substantial hardware
that China is giving Pakistan," observed Lawrence
Prabhakar, a China expert who is associate
professor at the Madras Christian College in
Chennai and research fellow at the Institute for
Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
Besides, they have thrown in an FTA as an "added
bonus".
As for China's reluctance to
fulfill Pakistan's nuclear wish list, Prabhakar
points to Beijing's concerns regarding poor
physical safety of reactors in Pakistan. The
Pakistani leadership will not admit this publicly
but it is worried about the entrepreneurial
network in nuclear technology and does not want to
be seen to have been complicit in this again. This
has prompted the Chinese leadership to move
cautiously with regard to building more reactors
in Pakistan, he says.
More important, Hu
did not announce a grand nuclear deal during his
visit because the Chinese "don't do anything in
haste", observed Prabhakar. "They will wait to see
what happens with regard to the India-US deal
before deciding on their next step."
The
US House of Representatives and the Senate have
given the green signal to the India-US nuclear
deal but have endorsed different versions. These
versions have to be reconciled before being put to
vote before the Congress. China will wait to see
the final version of the deal, "and then they will
give a measured response", said Prabhakar.
China is keen for a share in the business
that will open up if the India-US nuclear deal
becomes a reality. Hence its new openness with
regard to nuclear cooperation with India. Besides,
the "quiet endorsement" it extended to the
India-US nuclear deal during Hu's visit to India
will "enable it to do a similar deal with Pakistan
in future", noted Prabhakar.
What India
needs to note is that while China might not have
granted Pakistan's wish list during Hu's visit,
neither has it ruled out civilian nuclear
cooperation with that country. It has left the
issue open by holding out the promise of continued
cooperation; at the same time, is has not
committed to specifics at this juncture,
preferring to wait and watch before taking the
plunge.
Indian analysts are also drawing
attention to the giant strides China has made in
the region on the economic front. "That China has
an FTA with Pakistan and has emerged as the
largest trading partner of Bangladesh last year
should remind New Delhi that its failure to expand
economic cooperation with its important neighbors
is proving to be a blessing in disguise for
Beijing," wrote noted security analyst Raja Mohan
in the Indian Express.
"As its
tight-fisted Commerce Ministry refuses to lift the
many trade barriers with the neighbors and its
cloistered security establishment prevents
normalization of bilateral relations with Pakistan
and Bangladesh, India has in effect given China a
free economic pass in the region," Mohan said.
"While the Indian security establishment pats
itself on the back for preventing Chinese
investments in its border areas, Beijing's
economic presence all across India's frontiers -
from Pakistan in the west, through Nepal in the
north and Bangladesh in the east to Sri Lanka in
the south - will soon be a powerful reality."
India's political establishment might be
upbeat about improving ties with China - Indian
politicians frequently refer to the
bhai-bhai (brother-brother) relationship -
but business leaders continue to be wary of the
dragon. "One look at India's anti-dumping case
history and it becomes clear why Indian business
cannot yet trust its Chinese counterpart," says a
report in Economic Times. "The figures are
mind-boggling.
"Of the 188 anti-dumping
cases initiated by India since it kicked off the
process in 1992, 89 are against Chinese companies
... With such heavy dumping taking place in India
by Chinese manufacturers, it is not surprising
that the Indian industry sees red whenever there
is a talk of extending market economy status to
China."
Solid facts rather than emotions
lie behind India's guarded approach to China.
Hu's week-long visit to India and Pakistan
has ended. India and China might be doing more
business with each other than in the past, but
there is little to encourage India to lower its
guard.
At the end of his four-day visit to
India, Hu in a speech delivered in Mumbai said
China does not seek "selfish gains" in South Asia
and is ready to play a "constructive role" for
peace and development in the region. He will need
to move beyond mere rhetoric to convince India.
Sudha Ramachandran is an
independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
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