SPEAKING
FREELY The Taliban's fire
spreads By Nicolas
Martin-Lalande
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If the ongoing
empowerment of the neo-Taliban-driven insurgency
is not contained, Kabul could become, once again,
the capital of the "Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan", 10 years after being taken the first
time.
The deficit of security - physical,
economic and political - that marks the transition
since the Taliban's ouster in 2001 threatens
to
close a window of opportunity inasmuch as the
population will eventually pledge allegiance to
the actor it perceives as the less-bad provider of
security and government.
Certainly, the
population will wait until it perceives a
culminating point announcing a decisive swing of
fortunes for either the Taliban or the government.
As things stand, this balance is increasingly in
the Taliban's favor.
An insurgency is a
protracted political-military struggle that
jointly resorts to terrorist action, guerrilla
tactics and social-political mobilization to
create chaos among the population. At the same
time, support among the population is canvassed,
using the rationale that the government is
incapable of assuring security. Like an arsonist
fireman, the insurgent creates a problem
(instability), and then strives to become
indispensable to the solution (stabilization).
The success of an insurgency springs from
the encounter between an ideology-driven
leadership and a dissatisfied population base, on
the security, economic or political level. The
insurgent's and counter-insurgent's objectives are
obviously antagonistic. The counter-insurgent has
to reduce the level of violence, take control of
the provinces and eradicate the conditions that
stoke the movement, to mobilize the support of the
local population to isolate and then asphyxiate
the insurgents.
Both sides aim to win the
hearts and minds of the people, but
disillusionment among the Afghan population is as
profound as the post-conflict expectations were
high after 23 years of armed hostilities when the
Taliban were first driven out. A poll by the Asia
Foundation last summer revealed that the Afghan
population was first and daily concerned with
unemployment, the weak economy, security
uncertainty and poverty.
But the number of
soldiers deployed and the international aid raised
for the post-conflict reconstruction of
Afghanistan per inhabitant remains exceptionally
low. Despite the many international conferences
for donors (Tokyo 2002, Madrid 2004, London 2006),
analyst James Dobbins of the RAND Corporation
estimates aid at US$57 (2000 value) per inhabitant
instead of $29 in Germany (post-1945), $206 in
Iraq (post-2003), $526 in Kosovo (post-1999) and
$679 in Bosnia-Herzegovina (post-1995).
For the government to improve its image
before the population is completely alienated, it
should quickly act on the social-political demands
of the people. It must restore the central
government's sovereignty over all of Afghanistan
(President Hamid Karzai is teased as being only
the mayor of Kabul); re-establish the regular
functioning of public services; reduce poverty;
secure the rule of law.
The international
community needs to contribute toward
counterinsurgency efforts and reconstruction
strategies. At the military level, the number of
international forces needs to be increased.
If these efforts are not made, the 1994-96
Taliban strategy is likely to succeed again.
First, take Kandahar, then take control of the
rural areas in the Pashtun tribal arc, and
finally, lay siege to Kabul.
The Taliban
leadership currently enjoys a psychological
ascendancy. Emboldened by its resurgence (and the
Iraqi insurgency's successes), it dismisses the
idea of a full winter lull, planning on the
contrary to intensify its propaganda war and moves
to control the capital's support/communication
lines. Time is against the counterinsurgents.
Nicolas Martin-Lalande is a
researcher with the Raoul Dandurand Chair of
Strategic and Diplomatic Studies
(www.dandurand.uqam.ca), University of Quebec at
Montreal.
Speaking Freely is an
Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
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