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2 India gains little from courting
Myanmar By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - India's decision to woo
Myanmar's military rulers to get them to cooperate
with its efforts in fighting insurgency in its
northeastern states appears not to be working.
Outfits such as the United Liberation Front of
Assam (ULFA), which recently carried out a series
of deadly attacks on migrants in the state of
Assam, continue to thrive thanks to support and
sanctuary from Myanmar.
Getting Myanmar's
generals to cooperate with its efforts to fight
insurgency in its strife-torn northeast was among
the reasons India decided in the early 1990s to
move away from its policy of
refusing to engage with the
junta to courting it. India needed Yangon to crack
down on anti-India insurgents taking sanctuary in
Myanmar and to shut down camps and bases located
there. Without the help of the generals, India
realized that its efforts to tackle insurgency in
the northeast would not succeed.
Hence the
decision to tone down its "idealistic policy" of
support to the pro-democracy movement and to
replace it with a more "pragmatic policy" of
engaging the generals.
There were other
reasons too for the policy shift. India's refusal
to engage the generals had left the field open for
China to increase its presence and influence in
Myanmar. China had established close ties with
Myanmar's generals. In the process, India's
eastern flank had become vulnerable.
There
were economic interests, too, that prompted the
decision. India was keen to improve trade and
other relations with Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
was its land gateway to this region.
In
the 13-14 years since the rapprochement began,
relations have deepened considerably. Bilateral
visits have taken place at every level. Civil and
military officials meet regularly to take
bilateral ties further. India's influence in the
junta has increased and several top generals,
including Vice Senior General Maung Aye, are said
to be close to India.
Trade has expanded
from US$87.4 million in 1990-91 to $569 million in
2005-06. India's presence in Myanmar has grown
significantly. It is involved in several
infrastructure projects, including
telecommunications and road-building. While India
might have made gains from its policy of engaging
the generals, returns have been patchy and
erratic.
India is still a long way from
neutralizing Chinese influence there. If anything,
China's military and security relationship with
Myanmar has only grown over the past decade.
China is helping Myanmar modernize its
naval bases Sittwe, Coco, Hianggyi, Khaukphyu,
Mergui, and Zadetkyi Kyun by building radar, refit
and refuel facilities that could support Chinese
submarine operations in the Bay of Bengal.
Myanmar, Pakistan and Bangladesh have participated
in joint naval exercises with China's blessings.
Mohan Malik, professor of security studies
at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in
Honolulu, has observed that these developments not
only indicate the failure of India's policy of
constructive engagement with Myanmar's generals
but also signal "the transformation of the Bay of
Bengal into a Bay of Beijing for all practical
purposes".
India's engagement has given
the junta the stamp of approval of the world's
largest democracy, something neither China nor its
other friends in Southeast Asia can provide it
with. But China can bail Yangon out of trouble in
the United Nations with its veto. Friendship with
a permanent member of the Security Council is far
more valuable for the junta than that with a
democratic neighbor, and this clearly is a factor
that determines the junta's interaction with its
two giant neighbors.
With regard to
counterinsurgency operations, the returns have
been erratic. It is true that the two sides have
coordinated operations and cracked down on
militant camps. When India launches operations on
insurgents in the northeast, Myanmar has tightened
security along its border and arrested fleeing
fighters and vice versa. Myanmar has reportedly
shut down training camps run by anti-India rebels
on its territory.
Indian diplomats and
military officials have often claimed that it is
with regard to counterinsurgency cooperation that
India's engaging of Myanmar's generals has proved
most rewarding.
But the hollowness of such
claims has been exposed by the recent upsurge in
violence in Assam.
Some 80 people, all
poor migrant laborers, were slaughtered in Upper
Assam by ULFA cadres. ULFA has been carrying out a
series of deadly attacks over the past year. But
its goal of an
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