South Asia

Jan 20, 2007

Page 2 of 2
India gains little from courting Myanmar
By Sudha Ramachandran

independent Assam free from Indian control and its violent methods have little support among the Assamese people. It is an isolated outfit today.

ULFA's survival despite the lack of local support has been attributed to the continuing sanctuary it receives from Bangladesh and Myanmar. In 2003, ULFA bases in Bhutan were eliminated in military operations by the Royal Bhutan Army. While there have been reports of militants having returned to set up camps in

Bhutan, "it is camps in Bangladesh and Myanmar that are now providing the ULFA oxygen to strike in Assam", an Indian intelligence official told Asia Times Online.

Upper Assam, where ULFA has a strong presence and where the attacks on the migrants took place, is separated from Myanmar by a narrow strip of Indian territory in the state of Arunachal Pradesh. ULFA cadres based in Myanmar slip across Arunachal into Assam, carry out attacks there, and then melt back into their sanctuaries in Myanmar.

Yangon has claimed that these camps are in areas that are not fully under its control. This is partly true, but some of the insurgent groups that are working with ULFA and other anti-India outfits are in fact part of a narcotics-arms network that is supported by senior generals in the junta.

Myanmar's security forces are concentrated along the Myanmar-Thailand border where Karen rebels are active, rather than on the India-Myanmar border. The junta might have its excuses for not taking operations against Indian insurgents in Myanmar seriously enough. But it is a fact too that the military has been disingenuous in its "cooperation" with India. While it does arrest rebels from time to time, it frees them soon after, whether to signal its displeasure with India or to wring more goodies from New Delhi.

India has been providing the junta with military equipment to get Yangon to act against outfits such as ULFA. But clearly the junta is not using it for this purpose but to smash ethnic minorities and pro-democracy activists.

India has often defended its engagement as necessitated by its own security concerns and said it has not abandoned its commitment to democracy in Myanmar. Indeed, New Delhi continues to issue statements from time to time that call for reconciliation. This is a long way from its strident demands from 1988-92 calling on the junta to respect the people's mandate, restore democracy and respect human rights.

The question is whether the policy shift has been worth it. It has come at a cost.

India's engagement of the junta has eroded its democratic credentials. The Myanmar government is among the most repressive in the world. Critics have accused New Delhi of allowing narrow, short-term considerations to override commitment to principles in the crafting of its foreign policy.

Indian officials maintain that India is not happy with its policy shift but has been forced to adopt a realpolitik approach. They say that returns from the policy might not be satisfactory but it is at least cutting down the magnitude of the losses.

At a meeting on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit at Cebu, Philippines, Myanmar Prime Minister General Soe Win apparently assured Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that Yangon would take all necessary action if India supplies "adequate information".

India is said to be preparing for massive counterinsurgency operations along the India-Myanmar border. Its external affairs minister is visiting Yangon to discuss joint operations with Myanmar. India will be looking for more than mere verbal assurances.

Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.

(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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