A political curtain-raiser for the Taliban
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The Olsi Jirga, the Afghan lower house of parliament, has granted
immunity to all Afghans involved in the country's 25 years of conflict, despite
calls by human-rights groups for war-crimes trials.
The decision will cover fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Omar and former prime
minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who now heads his own militant group. The
decision is just another dent in the US-led "war on terror" campaign at a time
when the Taliban-led spring
uprising is imminent and the Taliban show no desire to initiate dialogue for
peace.
As the temperature has risen in Kabul to 1 degree Celsius - from minus-13 only
two weeks ago - reconciliatory efforts on the part of Kabul have gained
momentum.
The purpose of the initiative is to split opinion within the Taliban-led
resistance, which has increasingly drawn in warlords across the country. From
the tone of President Hamid Karzai's statements, though, it is clear that he
does not intend to go as far as power-sharing; he talks of dialogue with "an
enemy who is after our annihilation and is shedding our blood".
The amnesty decision, nevertheless, is significant. The overwhelming majority
in the Olsi Jirga is former mujahideen, including Speaker Younus Qanooni and
Professor Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf. The single largest group is Hekmatyar's
Hezb-e-Islami, besides a sizable presence of former Taliban, including diehards
such as Mullah Abdul Salam Rocketi, whose "defection" from the Taliban was made
under considerable duress.
In early 2006, politicians in Kabul would have learned of the jump in support
for the Taliban and their planned spring offensive for that year, which many
believed would be successful. As a result, politicians drew up a political
blueprint premised on the Taliban capturing Kabul and other key cities. In
effect, they were acting as the Taliban's political wing. The latest act of
granting immunity can be viewed as a continuation of this, and it sends a very
strong message to all segments of Afghan society.
Spring sprung
The Taliban's plan for a mass uprising has now become an issue of honor, and
this year it is many times better prepared than last year.
It is estimated that last year the Taliban were able to draw from a pool of
about 40,000 foot soldiers, many of them secure in the Pakistani tribal areas
of North Waziristan and South Waziristan. This year, the number of fighters has
risen by many thousand, many of whom have already been launched from Pakistan
into the Gramsir district of Helmand province across the border.
Thousands of others are ready to go from Pakistan's Bajaur agency into Kunar,
Nooristan and then up the northeastern valley of Tagab to besiege Kabul.
In addition, there is a strong presence of Taliban in the Afghan provinces of
Paktia, Paktika, Khost and Ghazni - possibly as many as 100,000. The Taliban
have also regrouped in the western provinces of Faryab, Herat, Ghor and
Baghdais, where they have sizable forces.
Within the next few weeks, Mullah Omar is expected to make major decisions on
the appointment of new commanders and also make changes in command structures.
The roadmap for 2006, which centered on the fall of Kandahar and mobilization
of Taliban forces to Kabul, is also likely to be altered, possibly allowing for
an assault on an eastern city. This happened in the mid-1990s when
Khost was the first city to fall to the Taliban, followed by Jalalabad and
finally Kabul in 1996.
Nonetheless, whether the Taliban move first on the east or the southwest, Kabul
is clearly reading the signs, and preparing for the possibility of the Taliban
entering Kabul.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
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