Taliban too quick off the
mark By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Events in Musa Qala in Helmand
province in Afghanistan over the past few days
have the potential to bring forward, if not
derail, the Taliban's plans for a massive spring
offensive.
In October, the British
military signed a peace deal with tribal elders in
Musa Qala. They promised to secure the district
and keep the Taliban out if the British left the
city and its environs. The British, who had
controlled Musa Qala throughout the summer,
had
been engaged in ongoing battles with the Taliban.
Crucially, though, the elders are
pro-Taliban, and last week several hundred Taliban
fighters took control of the city. On Sunday their
flags were reported still to be flying over the
regional administrative headquarters.
Media reports say a North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) strike near Musa Qala on
Sunday killed Taliban commander Mullah Abdul
Ghafour, who led the takeover of Musa Qala. Some
reports say Ghafour led the attack because NATO
forces last month killed his brother, Mullah
Ibrahim, in an air strike.
Soon after last
year's agreement, this correspondent interviewed a
key Taliban commander of Musa Qala, Haji
Naimatullah. Even though the accord had called for
the Taliban's withdrawal, many Taliban foot
soldiers were openly collecting contributions and
engaged in other assignments.
Indeed, all
of the other ceasefire agreements signed in
volatile southwestern Afghanistan similarly favor
the Taliban, who use them to spread their
influence, collect resources and recruit fresh
blood.
The extent of the Taliban's
influence can be seen from the manner in which
they derailed a reconstruction program. As a part
of the ceasefire deal, the Helmand government
called in Afghan auxiliary police and
reconstruction teams to begin work on projects for
which substantial funds had already been received
from Britain.
The Taliban simply marched
into Musa Qala and without firing a shot "asked"
the police to leave, which they did.
Backlash and
blowback Information coming across the
border suggests that much of the population of
Musa Qala has left the area in fear of a NATO
attack to retake the city.
NATO's outgoing
commander, General David Richards, said that "very
surgical and deliberate" force would be used if
needed to solve the crisis. Colonel Tom Collins, a
spokesman for NATO's International Security
Assistance Force, was quoted as saying, "It is
only a matter of time before the government
re-establishes control."
According to an
Interior Ministry spokesman in Kabul, NATO-led
troops dropped leaflets on Musa Qala on Sunday,
urging the Taliban to leave the city.
Conscious of the Taliban's planned
offensive, NATO has attempted over the winter to
draw them out prematurely, to no avail. For
instance, during NATO operations to take Baaz
Tsuka in the Zari and Panjwai districts south of
Kandahar, the Taliban initially pulled back, then
slowly returned to the area once the heat was off.
Musa Qala is somewhat different, though,
as it is the Taliban's most important foothold in
the country, from where it draws support and vital
supplies. Other important districts in Helmand
province, such as Nawzad, Baghran and to some
extent Sangeen, are dependent on Musa Qala as a
logistical base.
If the British do launch
a vigorous campaign to retake Musa Qala, and then
strengthen their presence and conduct regular
patrols, either with British or Afghan National
Army troops, the Taliban's activities will be
badly disrupted. Indeed, it would be a tactical
disaster as far as preparations for the spring
offensive are concerned.
At this stage the
Taliban simply don't want to become involved in a
serious confrontation with NATO. But even if they
retreat from Musa Qala without a fight, the peace
agreement will be in tatters and they will not be
allowed the virtual free rein they had under the
ceasefire. Further, should the Taliban resist,
their peace agreements in other parts of the
province will likely be scrapped.
The
Taliban would therefore be forced to engage in
premature battles in the southwest, and would have
to shift the focus of their spring offensive to
the southeast and east. This would diminish the
impact of the offensive, as the Taliban's support
base is strongest in the southwest, from where
they were relying on a domino effect to spread
their offensive to other areas of the country.
As it stands now, Musa Qala has the
potential to turn southwestern Afghanistan,
including Zabul, Urzgan, Kandahar and Helmand,
into a battlefield much sooner than anticipated.
Spring could come early in Afghanistan,
and it could be a very bloody one.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
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