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2 Pakistan makes a deal with the
Taliban By Syed Saleem Shahzad
by the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) would be forced into a
position to talk peace - and who better than
Pakistan to step in as peacemaker and bail out its
Western allies?
The next logical step
would be the establishment of a pro-Islamabad
government in Kabul - delivering a kick in the
strategic teeth of India at the same time. After
all, Pakistan invested a lot in Afghanistan after
the Soviet occupation in the 1980s yet it
received little in return.
Whether it was former Afghan premier Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar or Taliban leader Mullah Omar, they
refused to be totally Pakistan's men.
A
man for all seasons Mullah Dadullah, 41,
comes from southwestern Afghanistan, so he is
"original Taliban", and has a record of being a
natural leader in times of crisis.
Mullah
Dadullah made a name for himself during the Soviet
occupation, during which he lost a leg. And with
victories against the Northern Alliance after the
Taliban took over Kabul in 1996, he pushed the
alliance into the tail end of Afghanistan. This
made him Pakistan's darling from Day 1.
He
was Mullah Omar's emissary in the two Waziristan
tribal areas before the spring offensive of last
year. Here he brokered a major deal between the
Pakistani armed forces and the Pakistani Taliban.
Pakistan had lost more than 800 soldiers in
operations against the Pakistani Taliban and
al-Qaeda and it needed a face-saving way to
extricate itself from the mess.
Mullah
Dadullah's peace deal provided this, and the army
made an "honorable" withdrawal from the volatile
semi-independent region. Whenever the ceasefire
was violated, Mullah Dadullah would settle things
down.
The 2006 spring offensive was
veteran mujahideen fighter Jalaluddin Haqqani's
show. Nevertheless, the main areas of success were
not Haqqani's traditional areas of influence, such
as southeastern Afghanistan's Khost, Paktia and
Paktika. The Taliban secured major victories in
their heartland of the southwest, Helmand, Zabul,
Urzgan and Kandahar. And their leader was Mullah
Dadullah, whose men seized control of more than 12
districts - and held on to them.
Pakistani
strategic circles are convinced that as a proven
military commander, Mullah Dadullah will be able
to work wonders this spring and finally give the
Taliban the edge over the Kabul administration and
its NATO allies.
This, ultimately, is
Pakistan's objective - to revive its role in Kabul
- and Islamabad is optimistic that Dadullah's
considerable diplomatic skills will enable him to
negotiate a power-sharing formula for pro-Pakistan
Afghan warlords.
Even if Mullah Omar
disagrees about any major compromise, Islamabad
believes that Dadullah would by then have made
such a name for himself in the battle against NATO
that Omar would have little option but to accept
whatever terms were agreed on.
A new
string in the Taliban bow A notable addition to what can
only be described as a limited
Taliban arsenal this year is
surface-to-air missiles, notably the SAM-7, which
was the first generation of Soviet man-portable
SAMs.
The Taliban acquired these missiles
in 2005, but they had little idea about how to use
them effectively. Arab al-Qaeda members conducted
extensive training programs and brought the
Taliban up to speed. Nevertheless, the SAM-7s,
while useful against helicopters, were no use
against the fighter and bomber aircraft that were
doing so much damage.
What the Taliban
desperately needed were sensors for their
missiles. These detect aircraft emissions designed
to misdirect the missiles.
And it so
happened that Pakistan had such devices, having
acquired them from the Americans, though
indirectly. The Pakistanis retrieved them from
unexploded cruise missiles fired into Afghanistan
in 1998, targeting bin Laden. They copied and
adapted them to fit other missiles, including the
SAMs.
Now that the Taliban and Pakistan
have a deal, these missiles will be made available
to the Taliban. Much like the Stingers that
changed the dynamics of the Afghan resistance
against the Soviets, the SAMs could help turn
things Mullah Dadullah's, the Taliban's and
Pakistan's way.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau
Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright
2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Taliban arsenal this year is
surface-to-air missiles, notably the SAM-7, which
was the first generation of Soviet man-portable
SAMs. 
