Shadow boxing on Pakistan's
border By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The United States has clearly
informed Pakistan of plans to send special task
forces with air cover to operate inside Pakistan's
tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan to
smoke out al-Qaeda, which is gearing up to carry
out major attacks against the US and its European
allies.
"It was not an option for Pakistan
to carry out any operations on its own, as
Washington has completely shown its mistrust in
Pakistan's ability to conduct any credible
military operations against militant hideouts," a
top security official told Asia Times
Online on condition of
anonymity. "There was only one demand: that
Pakistan allow NATO [North Atlantic Treaty
Organization] troops the right of hot pursuit of
al-Qaeda in Pakistani territory, or NATO would
force its own way in."
The idea of hot
pursuit of al-Qaeda has been kicking around for
some time after being raised by NATO in a meeting
involving Pakistan in Kabul last August. But
Islamabad dragged its feet, and instead tried to
walk a tightrope between the NATO demands and the
Pakistani Taliban, who in effect rule in the the
tribal areas (see The knife at Pakistan's
throat, Asia Times Online, September 2,
2006, and Pakistan: Hello al-Qaeda, goodbye
America, ATol, September 8, 2006).
However, in the following months there
were significant developments. On the one hand,
some al-Qaeda commanders were arrested or killed
by NATO troops in Afghanistan, as were some in the
Pakistani tribal areas.
But more
significant, al-Qaeda steadily regrouped and
re-established its financial sources in
preparation for new operations in Europe and North
America that will involve the al-Qaeda leadership
relocating to a new base in Iraq - a number of
leaders have already left the Pakistan-Afghanistan
border areas.
Similarly, Taliban leaders
are moving from their safe havens along the border
to penetrate deep into Afghanistan in preparation
for what they see as a make-or-break spring
offensive.
Washington is not
underestimating al-Qaeda's new threat - which
might even include the use of chemical, biological
and nuclear weapons. Hence the urgency in tracking
the group in Pakistan to "nip the evil in the
bud".
Pakistani President General Pervez
Musharraf, though, is in no position simply to
throw open the country's doors. He faces strong
opposition from within his own security apparatus
to siding with the US and, in any case,
Islamabad's writ is virtually non-existent in the
tribal areas.
Mahmud Durrani, Pakistan's
ambassador to the United States, recently pointed
out that too much US pressure on Pakistan would
eventually destabilize Musharraf's government.
All the same, Pakistan is in a better
position to deflect US pressure than it was after
the terror attacks on the US on September 11,
2001, when it committed 100% to the US-led "war on
terror" or face being bombed "back to the Stone
Age".
Islamabad has had time to nurture
relationships with the Taliban while at the same
time covering its tracks. It recently agreed with
a Taliban commander to provide support to the
insurgency in southwestern Afghanistan.
This week, the European Union barred most
of the planes of Pakistan International Airlines
(PIA) from flying to the 27-nation bloc because of
safety concerns. In Islamabad this is seen as an
indirect pressure tactic. "The ban is more of a
political nature than technical," said Nasir
Jamal, PIA's general manager for public affairs.
Washington, at the same time as talking
about hot pursuit of al-Qaeda, has also tried
another tack by courting Pakistani Pashtun
nationalist elements to contain the Taliban threat
in the tribal areas. The leader of the Awami
National Party, Isfandyar Wali, was invited by the
State Department to the US, and on his return he
tried to use his influence to curtail the Taliban
- but to no avail.
"The Taliban have
become so strong now in the tribal areas that
whoever tries to disagree with them will not be
able to survive," Isfandyar said in a television
interview. "March, April, June and July are the
most important months for Pakistan, and anything
is possible," Isfandyar added, alluding to NATO
attacks in Pakistani territory.
Given this
possibility, Islamabad has summoned a number of
its ambassadors for talks on coordinating their
response to the threat to the country's national
security. They include the permanent
representative to the United Nations, Munir Akram,
Durrani in Washington, Salman Bashir from Beijing,
the high commissioner to the United Kingdom, Dr
Maleeha Lodhi, the high commissioner to India,
Shahid Malik, and the envoys to Afghanistan and
Iran.
Pakistan will most likely do all it
can to stall NATO and the US over the hot-pursuit
issue, and should foreign forces eventually swarm
over the border, they will in all probability be
too late: the Taliban will be busy deep in
Afghanistan, and al-Qaeda will be operating from
Iraq.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
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