A big push for Pakistan's Afghan
agenda By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - Warlord, mujahideen leader and
former prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's
announcement that he is severing ties with the
Taliban and starting negotiations with the
administration of President Hamid Karzai in Kabul
is the first Pakistan card to be played before the
start of the Taliban-led spring uprising.
While Hekmatyar will promote Pakistan's
regional interests, his move is not expected to
make any significant difference to the Taliban's
planned offensive, as they had all its elements in
place
before Hekmatyar's decision.
For example, a few months ago
Hekmatyar, leader of the Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan
(HIA) , instructed all important warlords in
Afghanistan to dismantle the HIA's structures in
their areas and
merge with the Taliban's command. Thus they
will remain in position and simply change hats.
The announcement by Hekmatyar caught many
people by surprise. Yet it is to be expected from
the mercurial mujahid with political ambitions who
has always had his own agenda, even while his HIA
fought alongside the Taliban in the jihad against
foreign forces, mostly in eastern Afghanistan.
In this context, the recent decision by
the Olsi Jirga, the Afghan lower house of
parliament, to grant immunity to all Afghans
involved in the country's 25 years of conflict is
important, as it clears the way for Hekmatyar to
enter the political stage.
The US
considers Hekmatyar a terrorist, although it
backed him against the Soviets in the 1980s.
Hekmatyar was sidelined when the Taliban came to
power in 1996 and only returned to Afghanistan
from exile in Iran in 2002. He has been courted
before by the US as providing a political solution
to the country's woes, but the overtures came to
nothing (see Afghanistan: Hekmatyar changes color
again, Asia Times Online, April 3,
2004).
Hekmatyar's latest move coincides
with lobbying by Pakistan with the West to open
channels of communication with the Afghan
insurgency. Pakistani policymakers, including
Mushahid Hussain Syed, the chairman of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, has urged Washington
to talk to the Taliban on a power-sharing formula.
As Washington is not comfortable with the Taliban,
Hekmatyar is being touted as a suitable candidate
to help restore peace to Afghanistan.
The
Taliban's upcoming offensive, which clearly has
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led forces
highly concerned, adds urgency to finding a
political solution. NATO has already launched its
own spring offensive and increased troop numbers
in anticipation of the biggest battle in
Afghanistan since the US-led invasion of 2001.
Political wrangling More than
two years ago, a segment of the HIA, otherwise a
highly ideologically motivated and organized
group, separated from Hekmatyar but refused to
denounce him. This renegade group contested the
parliamentary elections of September 2005 and
emerged as the single-largest bloc, with 40 seats
in the National Assembly.
A number of
former Taliban also secured seats, besides other
Islamists and the pro-Pakistan Ittahad Islami
Afghanistan led by Professor Abdul Rab Rasool
Sayyaf.
Nevertheless, these groups failed
to make any inroads in Karzai's cabinet, which is
dominated by the pro-India Northern Alliance, as
is the Afghan National Army.
The situation
changed last year, though, when the Taliban
mounted its most successful spring campaign in
five years. It claimed large swaths of the
southwest after being welcomed back into the
community by tribal leaders.
Almost
overnight, Western policymakers began talking of
possible power-sharing arrangements involving the
Taliban, provided they laid down their weapons.
Pakistan saw its opportunity to regain lost ground
in Afghanistan and pounced. It was convinced that
whether Hekmatyar or the Taliban come to power, as
Islamist Pashtuns they would gravitate toward
Pakistan rather than India.
"The time has
now come that the West should realize there is a
difference between al-Qaeda and the Taliban,"
retired Major-General Jamshed Ayaz Khan, president
of the Institute of Regional Studies, told Asia
Times Online. "Al-Qaeda is undoubtedly a terrorist
organization with a global agenda, but as far as
the Taliban are concerned, they may be extremists,
but they are part of Afghan society and represent
a major segment of the Afghan population." Khan's
Islamabad-based think-tank advises the government
on major policy issues.
"The Taliban
require separate treatment and consideration.
Without striking a deal with the Taliban, peace in
Afghanistan will only be a dream," said Khan.
Pakistan realized, though, that it had a
problem with Taliban leader Mullah Omar, whom the
West is most unlikely to welcome back into power
in Kabul. The only way Mullah Omar can regain
power is by fighting on, forcing the coalition to
fight back in what could be a quagmire without
end.
As a result, Islamabad worked on the
Hekmatyar option.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau
Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
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2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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merge with the Taliban's command. Thus they
will remain in position and simply change hats.
