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2 India as a nuclear pariah - or
partner By Sudha Ramachandran
promote cooperation in the field of
nuclear energy, consistent with their respective
international commitments". Its willingness to
engage in dialogue with India on civilian nuclear
cooperation, which represents a significant shift
from the past, has been interpreted as an
indication that it will back the lifting of the
embargo on trade with India in the NSG.
"By now agreeing to explore civil nuclear
cooperation with India if
China's 'international
commitments' allow it, President Hu is implicitly
telling the Indian side his government is not
opposed to NSG changing its norms to permit
commerce with India," Siddharth Varadarajan wrote
in The Hindu after Hu's visit.
Strobe
Talbott, formerly US president Bill Clinton's
interlocutor with India on the nuclear issue,
observed last year: "China may ask difficult
questions about India being excepted from the NPT
regime and why such an exception should be
country-specific. But China is not in the business
of being a spoiler anymore."
A significant
boost to India's prospects of getting the NSG
guidelines altered has come from Brazil and South
Africa, two countries that voluntarily dismantled
their nuclear-weapons program to join the
non-proliferation regime. These countries had
initially opposed the India-US nuclear deal. It
was believed that they would be at the forefront
of the charge against rewarding India,
strengthening the argument of the
non-proliferation hardliners. But they came around
to endorsing India's quest for civilian nuclear
technology late last year.
"South Africa
has absolutely no problem; we will surely support
India," said its president, Thabo Mbeki.
Indian officials say that while they still
have a long way to go with regard to winning the
support of Japan, the country that was the
fiercest in its response to India's nuclear tests
in 1998, they are "satisfied" with the softening
of Tokyo's stance. Japan had expressed
reservations over the India-US deal at the NSG
meeting in 2005 but has since "come around to a
more flexible position".
Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe is said to have told the
Indian government that Japan wants India first to
conclude the bilateral civil nuclear-energy pact
with the US and a safeguard agreement with the
International Atomic Energy Agency. Japan will
decide on supporting India at the NSG only after
this. It will make its decision regarding
supporting India in the NSG only after the picture
with regard to the safeguards that India's nuclear
program will be subjected to becomes clearer.
Of considerable concern to India's
campaign to get the NSG guidelines revised is the
position of "non-proliferation purists" such as
New Zealand, Ireland, Sweden, Norway, Finland and
Austria that see the India-US nuclear deal as
weakening international the non-proliferation
regime.
But Indian diplomats remain
hopeful. After all "Canada, which we once
considered as the toughest nut to crack among the
non-proliferation purists, has come out in support
of the nuclear deal", the ministry official
pointed out. "India is hoping that recent
converts, like Canada, will convince the skeptics
to come on board."
The decision on nuclear
trade with India is unlikely to figure on the
agenda of the NSG when it meets at Cape Town next
Monday through Friday. General speculation is that
the group could convene an extraordinary meeting
for that purpose later in the year.
However, proponents of lifting the nuclear
embargo on India will keenly watch the Cape Town
meet for indications on the direction the wind is
blowing. At an informal meeting a year ago,
France, Russia and the UK supported the US
position, but 27 other NSG members who were
present are said to have opposed the deal, asked
questions about it without taking a stand, or
remained silent. India, the US and others will
look to see whether their efforts at persuasion
have contributed to a shrinking in the ranks of
the skeptics.
In the coming months, India
will step up its campaign with the NSG. The focus
of its diplomatic energies will be the
non-proliferation purists.
India as a
nuclear pariah or partner? The NSG will have to
make up its mind soon as to which of these roles
it wants for India. Delhi will seek to convince
the body that a responsible partner - such as
itself - is in the interests of the
non-proliferation efforts of the international
community.
Sudha Ramachandran is
an independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
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