India has China in its
range By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Even as India celebrates the
successful test-firing on Thursday of its
home-grown Agni-III intermediate-range ballistic
missile - capable of delivering a 1.5-tonne
nuclear or conventional payload over much of Asia
- officials admit that the test had the tacit
approval of the United States.
The US is
striving to build India as a strategic
counterweight to China, along with Japan and
Australia.
Last May, during a period of
frenzied negotiations on a civilian nuclear deal
with Washington, New Delhi postponed testing of
the
Agni-III
so as not to invite the ire of nuclear hawks in
the US Congress, which was deliberating the
nuclear pact that now stands approved.
According to reports last year, Washington
put pressure on New Delhi to agree to a future
moratorium on testing of dual-use missile
technology that could be used to deliver a nuclear
payload and testing another atomic bomb as a
quid pro quo for the civilian nuclear deal.
India, however, rejected such a commitment
as a back-door entry to the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty. India has not signed the CTBT as it feels
that the treaty came into existence after those
who possessed nuclear weapons had developed the
know-how.
Strategic equations have
obviously changed now, with a combination of
business interests, India's record as a
responsible democratic nation, and the China
factor coming into play.
Agni-III, given
its range of 3,000 kilometers, has been
specifically designed to build a minimum nuclear
deterrence against China, with cities such as
Beijing and Shanghai very much in the radar.
Agni-III is said to possess a high degree of
accuracy with a medium-to-large nuclear payload.
Beijing reacted immediately to the Indian
firing, saying it hoped that India, "as a country
with an important influence in this region, can
work to maintain and promote peace and stability
in the region". Indian officials have said
Agni-III is not China-centric, but an effort to
build overall security.
India, of course,
has traditional rival Pakistan already covered via
its Agni-I (700-800km range) and Agni-II
(2,000km-plus range) missiles that are now being
inducted into the armed forces. As per the agreed
norms, New Delhi informed Islamabad about Agni-III
prior to the test.
Not to be undone,
Pakistan, with help from China and North Korea, is
in the process of inducting the nuclear-capable
Shaheen-II missile, tested for the first time in
March 2004, which can strike Indian targets over a
range of 2,000km.
Apart from gaining more
security muscle in the region, the success of
Agni-III is significant on other counts. The
maiden test of Agni-III failed last July 9, so
Indian scientists had to work on the technical
glitches.
The Agni is one of five missiles
that have been developed by India. The others are
the short-range surface-to-surface Prithvi, the
surface-to-air Trishul (Trident), the
multi-purpose Akash (Sky) and the anti-tank Nag
(Cobra) missile.
Other benefits It would seem that India is also now
reasonably sure of its acceptance as a nuclear
exception among the global community that will
allow it to purchase nuclear fuel and technology
from the international market. Indian efforts have
now moved to turning around nations that form part
of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), with success
on this count. India needs approval from the NSG
so that it can implement its nuclear agreement
with the US.
Heavyweights France, the
United Kingdom and Canada have already backed the
deal. The business potential and diplomatic
efforts have had important countries such as China
and Australia rethink their approach. Those two
countries have hinted that they will not be averse
to doing nuclear business with India. Russia has
already chalked out its nuclear-power engagement
with India.
South Africa and Brazil have
been co-opted by promises of New Delhi's support
in securing business deals and expertise in
software and information technology.
Japan
has been difficult, but Indian officials are sure
that given the massive business opportunities,
especially in software to upgrade Japanese
companies, and extensive diplomatic efforts, Japan
will come around and has already considerably
softened its stand. Tokyo is pretty much clued
into a US-India-Japan "axis of democracy" to
counter the might of China.
Thus the
timing of the Agni-III test seems to be right.
Politically, the Congress-led New Delhi government
has been criticized for being feeble to India's
internal and external security threats, because of
repeated terrorist attacks and the need to tread
carefully in dealing with Beijing.
Given
the ongoing detailed negotiations on the
nitty-gritty of the nuclear pact with the US as
well the benefits of nuclear power that will flow
in times to come, it was only prudent for New
Delhi to gain a few political points given the
immediacy of electoral politics.
Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh said the success of the
Agni-III missile is an "impressive illustration"
of India mastering the strategic high technologies
to uphold national security.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
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2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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