Pakistan running out of
options By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - It is a debate that keeps
Washington and Pakistani President General Pervez
Musharraf in a quandary: What system can be
introduced to control the Pakistani armed forces,
the Taliban and al-Qaeda, while at the same time
nurturing democracy but without compromising
Musharraf's dominance? And all this while the
country is in the midst of a judicial crisis that
is fast spiraling out of control?
Chief
Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry was suspended
by Musharraf on March 9 on charges of abuse of
power and
nepotism. Increasingly large
protests have followed, the most recent in Lahore
last weekend, with one scheduled for Karachi this
weekend.
Widespread anger over the move
has not been defused by the Supreme Court's
suspension on Monday of the Judicial Council's
inquiry into the charges of misconduct against
Chaudhry. Not only did the apex court rule that a
full court bench look into the charges filed by
the government against Chaudhry, it also began
hearing a petition filed by the top jurist
challenging his suspension.
Legal
observers believe that the ruling allows for much
face-saving, both for the government and for
Chaudhry, and gives them time to cool the
situation.
But it appears Musharraf is
sticking to his guns, and Chaudhry will go ahead
with his address to the Bar Council in the
southern port city of Karachi on Saturday despite
the provincial Home Department's warnings of the
likelihood of a terror attack, if not riots and
bloodshed. All opposition parties and the ruling
coalition led by the Muttahida Quami Movement
(MQM) have announced plans for rallies.
Analysts believe that unless the country
really plunges into crisis in the coming weeks,
the present government setup will have to go, as
already planned in the recent past in Washington
and Islamabad. However, the feeling is that after
instituting a face-saving setup, Musharraf will
try to return as the all-powerful leader and
introduce long-term constitutional guarantees for
himself.
An alternative narrative The popular, democratic and secular Pakistan
People's Party Parliamentarian (PPPP) of currently
exiled Benazir Bhutto is the only party Washington
will anoint to run Pakistan. But the
million-dollar question, raised by Bhutto in
Washington when she insisted that she run the
country without Musharraf, is whether she would be
able to confront the Taliban and al-Qaeda, as well
as control the military.
The country's
political map speaks volumes. North West Frontier
Province and the southwestern province of
Balochistan are totally out of Benazir's orbit, as
either nationalists or religious parties dominate
there. Punjab province clearly favors the right,
with such parties as the Pakistan Muslim League
led by former premier Nawaz Sharif. The province
of Sindh is a traditional seat of power for the
PPPP, but urban Sindh is completely in the hands
of the MQM.
Tellingly, Bhutto does not
have the ability to keep the military in control.
Therefore, the only option for her, as suggested
by Washington, is to join as Musharraf's partner.
Musharraf, after all, is still a precious asset
for Washington in controlling the military
establishment, the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
"You have to appreciate the fact that
March 9 changed the political realities of the
country. It will not be easy for anybody to jump
on the government's bandwagon," commented Ehsan
Iqbal, former federal minister and secretary of
information of Nawaz's Pakistan Muslim League
(Nawaz). The Nawaz Group is now a reluctant
partner of the PPPP in the Alliance for the
Restoration of Democracy after reports began to
emerge of a political deal between the PPPP and
the government.
The popular discontent
against the Musharraf government has created
difficulties for the PPPP. Observers believe that
it is now a mater of "sure" political death versus
"probable" political death for Bhutto. If the PPPP
refuses to shake hands with Musharraf, the
government will pursue corruption charges against
her in the Swiss courts and any decision against
her would surely end her career. Joining with
Musharraf would be against popular sentiment, but
it would give Bhutto the chance to survive, for a
little longer at least.
The problem is,
while the feudal base of Bhutto's party will
support her, the top leadership dominated by
left-leaning "social democrats" will never sit in
the lap of a uniformed dictator.
Bhutto
received a taste of this when a top PPPP member,
Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, who is a member of the
National Assembly and a lawyer for Iftikhar
Chaudhry, refused Bhutto's instructions not to
become involved in the suspended chief justice's
rallies. Other party leaders have already
protested her supporting "a collapsing setup", in
reference to Musharraf's administration.
What is clear is that Islamabad and
Washington do not have much room in which to
maneuver. And adding even more spice, one of the
leaders of the influential Lal Masjid (Mosque) in
Islamabad, Maulana Abdul Aziz, has reiterated the
necessity for a jihad against the government.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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