Taliban turn their focus on
cities By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - With the killing of leading
Taliban field commander Mullah Dadullah by US-led
forces last weekend, reports of the death of the
spring insurgency in Afghanistan are rife.
A North Atlantic Treaty Organization
spokesperson has already been quoted as saying
that the situation in Kandahar province has
improved compared with last year and the only task
that remains is to control restive Helmand
province.
It is not as clear-cut as this,
though, and despite what NATO
might say, there has been a
recent upsurge of violence in Kandahar and plans
for a mass uprising remain on course, although the
death of Dadullah has been a psychological blow to
the Taliban.
Secret Taliban cells inside
Kandahar, in connivance with sympathizers in the
Afghan administration - right under the noses of
NATO forces - are surfacing in the city, and NATO
planes can do little about it.
On
Thursday, a suicide car bomber drove into the
armored motorcade of Asadullah Khalid, the
governor of Kandahar. Three bystanders died, but
the governor - who was responsible for putting
Dadullah's body on public display - was not in the
procession. Two of his ministers were injured,
though.
Earlier in the day, a roadside
bombing killed four private security guards. This
was followed minutes later by a radio-controlled
blast at the same scene that claimed three Afghan
police officers.
These actions mark a new
phase of the insurgency in which the Taliban will
conduct operations in urban areas and attempt to
cripple the local administrations of the Kabul
government.
The Taliban's sleeper cells,
which were previously involved in assisting
Taliban fighters in various districts around
Kandahar by providing logistical support and
money, have now decided to take center stage in
the city, Taliban sources confirmed to Asia Times
Online from Kandahar. The cells are scattered all
over Kandahar and have even infiltrated the local
administration. (See How the Taliban prepare for
battle, Asia Times Online, December 5,
2006.)
These Taliban tactics had evolved
before Dadullah's killing. There has been much
talk of a mass uprising, which NATO misunderstood
to mean people taking up arms en masse. It was
believed this could easily be controlled by air
strikes.
But what the Taliban aim to do
this year in southwestern Afghanistan is to hold
on to areas that have already been occupied, while
opening up new fronts. This does not mean the
occupation of new districts, rather new fronts of
attack, especially in urban areas.
Young
commanders trained in the Pakistani tribal areas
in the techniques of suicide attacks, improvised
explosive devices and other facets of urban
guerrilla warfare have been removed from the
structured commands of the districts and other
engagements on the traditional fronts. They have
been relocated in such places as Kandahar city and
Herat.
These include prominent fighters
such as Moulvi Abdul Jalil, who was called off
from the Panjwai district of Kandahar and replaced
by an old-style commander, Abdul Mannan, who was
killed this week in a NATO air strike. The
youthful Jalil is an expert in guerrilla
operations and in working in small groups.
Traditional commanders in the Taliban rank
and file will hold on to areas in Zabul, Kandahar,
Orzgan and Helmand provinces while the younger
generation concentrates on the cities, with the
help of collaborators in the Afghan
administrations.
The modus operandi
of this "uprising" will be the use of mines,
remote-controlled devices and suicide attacks and
will be very difficult for NATO to contain. The
aim is to confine NATO troops as much as possible
to their bases, while the Taliban strengthen their
footholds in the cities.
Placed in this
picture, Mullah Dadullah was an important part of
the need to hold on to districts militarily and in
securing human and other resources, including
foreign aid. But new leaders for the tribal-based
movement will emerge, as they have in the past, to
pick up his mantle.
Meanwhile, in the
cities, the new phase will gather momentum.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
