Iran forces the issue in
Afghanistan By Syed Saleem
Shahzad
ISLAM QALA, Iran-Afghanistan
border - When Iran announced in February that it
was undertaking a thorough regularization of
aliens on its soil, ears in the West pricked up,
but not much was read into it.
However,
the subsequent expulsion of thousands of Afghan
refugees indicates the twofold motive behind the
move. First, Iran wanted to weaken Sunni-led
insurgents in its bordering areas, and second, it
believed that the return of the refugees would
fuel the
Taliban-led insurgency in
Afghanistan.
The second calculation,
compounded by a political miscalculation on the
part of the Afghan government, has already borne
fruit, in the process providing the United States
with another area on which it needs to consult
Tehran.
On April 23, Iran sent back 4,000
undocumented Afghans to Zaranj, Nimroz province,
followed the next day by the same number. All of
them had been living in the Iranian
Sunni-dominated Zabol-Zahedan region of
Sistan-Balochistan province and had originally
hailed from Nimroz and Farah provinces. An
estimated 1 million Afghan refugees live in Iran.
According to the United Nations Assistance
Mission in Afghanistan, up to the beginning of
this month, 98,712 persons had been deported since
April 23 - the largest number ever send back from
Iran in such a short period. Almost all of them
were sent from the Zaranj border crossing. They
were said to have refused to comply with a
decision by the Iranian government to declare the
Zabol-Zahedan area a "no-go" zone for
"foreigners".
In fact, observers claim
that Tehran wants to clear all people, local or
foreign, from the Sunni-dominated area to minimize
the chances of insurgents securing safe
sanctuaries in the remote regions of Zahedan and
Zabol.
Zahedan has traditionally been the
base of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK - People's
Mujahideen), which has conducted terror acts in
Iran. And recently an organization called
Jundallah emerged from the area to carry out
terrorist activities against Iranian security
forces.
Jundallah is a hardline Sunni
Islamist group drawn from the Baloch population of
Iran, as well as Balochs from Pakistan
(Balochistan province) and Afghanistan (Farah and
Nimroz provinces).
Zabol's vastness has
served as a safe haven for the Taliban, as the
local population is sympathetic to them. One of
Osama bin Laden's sons, Saad, was arrested from
Zabol by Iranian authorities. This was never
officially announced, and some reports say he was
released last July.
According to field
officers of the United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees, although they made every effort to
stem the flood of refugees, they have had little
success and they are struggling to cope with the
numbers. About 1,300 a day are still streaming
across the border, most of them headed for their
home provinces of Farah and Nimroz.
The
situation is a serious concern for Kabul as well
as its international supporters. The province of
Farah, in western Afghanistan near Herat province,
was virtually in the hands of the Taliban until
last November, but constant operations by North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Afghan
forces forced the Taliban back. Nevertheless, in
the ongoing spring offensive, the Taliban are
re-establishing their influence.
After a
surge in attacks since last month, the Herat-Farah
highway has been declared insecure and officials
of international agencies are banned from
traveling on it - they have to use NATO or UN air
services.
"The most alarming thing is the
gradual increase in the activities of the Taliban
in Farah and Nimroz and the return of the Afghan
refugees. They are poor and needy and naturally
will fuel the Taliban insurgency," a senior
official of an international agency told Asia
Times Online on condition of anonymity.
However, other factors will help make
western Afghanistan a new hub of Taliban
activities this year. Sayed Hussain Anwari, a
Shi'ite ethnic Hazara, was installed as governor
of Herat this year in the predominantly
Tajik-Sunni province.
Anwari is a bitter
rival of a legendary Afghan commander of the
resistance against the Soviets in the 1980s,
Ismail Khan, and Anwari's appointment by Kabul was
an open declaration of war against Khan and his
formidable support. Khan was sacked as governor in
September 2004. As a conciliatory gesture,
President Hamid Karzai appointed him minister of
energy.
The consequences of sidelining the
powerful Khan are being manifested in the
re-emergence of the Taliban in the northwestern
provinces of Herat (Shindand), Farah, Nimroz and
Ghor through the facilitation of local warlords,
many of them Khan supporters.
To date,
Iranian diplomacy has been effective in keeping
the US war machine at bay in the Persian Gulf and
even compelled the Americans to open dialogue with
Iran over its role in Iraq and the region.
Northwestern Afghanistan is the latest front on
which the Americans need to make a bargain with
Tehran.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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