Monsoons and politics no sure bet
in India By Siddharth
Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Can there be a
connection between Indian monsoons and electing a
new president? There is in the huge underground
satta (betting) market that usually centers
on cricket but takes on other issues as well.
Despite police crackdowns, satta is one of
the most organized gaming forums.
If not
cricket or monsoons, bets can be placed on
election results, even for a high-profile one in
the United States.
According to reports,
more than Rs4 billion (US$98.2 million) in
bets
were placed on the recent Punjab elections, and
the jostling over who is going to be India's new
president next month has been an added bonus.
India could have its first female
president in Pratibha Patil, a veteran
congresswoman with a feisty political record in
the state of Maharashtra. However, the selection
will not be straightforward.
In the latest
twist, incumbent President A P J Abdul Kalam has
been backed for re-election by a third front, a
conglomeration of non-Congress and non-Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) outfits.
Thus the
satta continues.
"Given the
different names being touted as possible
candidates for president, the odds on any one
being nominated provided ideal material for bets,"
said a satta operator who has been involved
in the trade for more than a decade. He said the
satta value on emerging candidates has
passed Rs10 billion.
Betting on the
president The post of president, in essence
a symbolic figure but who can be an irritant to
any government in power, has turned into an
intensely political subject.
The president
is elected via an indirect vote by an Electoral
College composed of elected representatives.
In a top-down approach, political parties
have been resorting to slotting a vacancy on the
basis of community/religion before identifying a
person. Thus a Sikh dalit (considered the lowest
caste) or a Muslim has been chosen in the past to
pass on the right message to the concerned section
of the population.
There have been persons
of eminence such as President Kalam, a Muslim and
noted scientist who was chosen by the previous BJP
government.
This time, however, the
criterion has been different, resulting in the
satta market moving in.
The BJP
candidate was more or less certainly Vice
President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, a person of
political eminence, until Kalam's name resurfaced
this week. Now Shekhawat says he won't run if
Kalam does.
However, the Congress, which
has to carry along its left-wing coalition
partners on every decision, has not had it so
easy.
It did not want to support Kalam
partially because of differences on a few issues
such as a tradition of Indian presidents serving
one term and Kalam's initial appointment by the
BJP.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi was
looking for someone like the gentle Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh, a person who can never cross
political swords with her and maintains a sense of
personal loyalty.
Gandhi's chosen one,
however, was current Home Minister Shivraj Patil,
a politician similar in demeanor to Manmohan,
though not in caliber and professional acumen.
This sufficed for Gandhi, but not the
left, which likes to oppose anything that the
Congress proposes.
Pitching for Bengali
brotherhood, the leftists wanted External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee, a man known to have a
mind of his own, apart from being a very important
minister. But he was too much of a bitter pill for
Gandhi to swallow.
Left-wing compromise
candidate Arjun Singh was rejected as a loose
cannon, given his self-appointed status as a
messiah for the backward castes.
Thus over
the past week other names appeared and faded such
as veteran Congress party member N D Tiwari,
leftist leader Somnath Chatterjee, and Sushil
Kumar Shinde.
A compromise was struck for
Patil, who was plucked out of relative obscurity
as Kalam was earlier, and her candidacy was
cleverly couched as promoting woman power.
Patil fits Gandhi's bill nicely, too. The
left had had a say and with Brahmin dalit leader
Mayawati extending support, Pratibha Patil could
create history unless President Kalam spoils her
party.
Indeed, those who bet on a dark
horse owe Patil a bit of their newly gotten
wealth.
Monsoon betting Aside
from the president, the satta market is
deep into an annual contest: betting on the
monsoon.
There is a reason that the Indian
monsoons make good satta candidates. The
official weather department issues regular
bulletins that are followed like stock indices.
Given unpredictable weather conditions,
exacerbated by global warming, the period of
May-August is marked by periodic squalls and
cloudbursts, and each month could be the beginning
of the actual monsoon, or otherwise.
According to reports, bets of up to Rs30
billion have been placed in Mumbai on the various
aspects of the rain - the date of arrival, the
total downpour, and monthly breakup.
The
year 2003 was particularly difficult for gamblers
as the monsoons were at their unpredictable best.
A period of heavy rainfall resulted in the
national weather office even declaring that they
had arrived, followed by a healthy forecast for
the season.
However, the rains petered
out, leaving most of northern India in the worst
drought in more than a decade, and many a diehard
punter lost money.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based
journalist.
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