A moment of truth for
Pakistan By Syed Saleem
Shahzad
KARACHI - Six days into the
offensive against the radical Lal Masjid (Red
Mosque) in Islamabad, Pakistani President General
Pervez Musharraf was on Monday desperately
searching for a way to contain the damage from the
bloody confrontation.
Unrest over the
clashes between armed students (and possibly
foreign militants) inside the mosque and
government forces has spread to Pakistan's North
West Frontier Province (NWFP) and
the
semi-autonomous tribal areas on the border with
Afghanistan. An army division (10,000-20,000
soldiers) has been sent to Swat Valley in NWFP to
confront the allies of Lal Masjid as well as
pro-Taliban Tehrik-i-Nifaz-Shariat-i-Mohammedi
(TNSM) militants. There are also preparations for
a massive army operation in the North Waziristan
tribal area.
More than 20,000 tribesmen,
including masked militants carrying rifles,
protested in the northwest region of Bajaur. Four
security personnel were also reported abducted in
Bajaur as hostages to force the government into
allowing those still inside Lal Masjid a free
passage out. This is one of the options Musharraf
and his inner circle are considering.
They
are undoubtedly concerned that should they clear
the mosque in one final military attack, violence
across the country will only increase. Already,
scores - if not hundreds - of people have died in
the mosque siege. Indeed, there is even talk of
the unrest becoming so widespread that it would
justify calling in North Atlantic Treaty
Organization-led troops in Afghanistan to extend
the "war on terror" into Pakistan territory.
For the al-Qaeda leadership sitting in the
tribal areas, the situation is fast evolving into
the promised battle of Khorasan. This includes
parts of Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and
Tajikistan from where the Prophet Mohammed
promised the "end of time" battle would
start.
Jihadist circles clearly want to
exploit the crisis to boost themselves as major
players, and envisage even a share in the power in
Islamabad.
A contact in the TNSM told Asia
Times Online that after a clash with security
forces on Saturday, they sensed a big operation
was coming, so they mobilized their men. The
contact said that even a division would not be
much use against them. "We have activated our men
from Dir, Malakand, Swat and Mengora and are ready
to take on the government all over the country,"
the TNSM source said.
Three Chinese
nationals were killed in Peshawar, NWFP, on
Sunday. They are unlikely to have been preferred
targets, but militants want to make the brutal
point that the writ of the government means little
in this area.
"In this whole situation of
Lal Masjid, the government of Pakistan is plumb in
the hands of vested interest groups - be it
jihadis or Washington," said retired General Hamid
Gul, a former director general the Inter-Services
Intelligence. Gul believes that Musharraf's
troubles started when he began his "game of
deceptions" after the September 11, 2001, attacks
on the US and ditched Pakistan's allies, the
Taliban, under Western pressure.
"Musharraf used the post-September 11
situation at all external and internal fronts to
get support for his government. He gave rope to
Lal Masjid for a very long time and used it to
downplay genuine issues, like the movement of
opposition parties," Gul said.
"People
from Lal Masjid were in contact with the Pakistani
establishment, which was confident it could play
the situation as it liked. But now the situation
is in the hands of jihadis - not in the hands of
Abdul Rashid Ghazi [one of two brothers who runs
Lal Masjid and who is still in the mosque] or the
establishment.
"I don't see any solution
except that the militants are given a safe
passage, otherwise the situation will deteriorate
and go way beyond the control of the government,"
said Gul, who is considered one of the architects
of the jihadist movements in Pakistan, Kashmir and
Afghanistan.
"A serious situation is
evolving and if any [further] operation is
conducted against Lal Masjid it will simply
radicalize the religious centers of the country.
There are 250,000-275,000 mosques in the country.
Think what would happen if all those centers were
radicalized.
"The jihadis want this sort
of situation, and eventually it will prompt
Western armies to enter Pakistan to attack Taliban
and al-Qaeda targets. The government should
realize what lies ahead. It is a pity that our
army was preparing youths to seize Lal Qala [the
Red Fort of Delhi] and they ended up seizing the
Lal Masjid," Gul said.
The Lal Masjid
situation deteriorated on Sunday when a commando
operation in the early hours of the morning went
badly wrong. The commandos had planned to break
down one of the mosque's walls, but were caught in
a trap. The leader, Lieutenant-Colonel Haroon Ul
Islam, died in the subsequent gunfight.
A
Pakistani official told Asia Times Online on
condition of anonymity, "They [those remaining in
the mosque] are not ordinary students or jihadis.
They are very well-trained militants. The way they
trapped our commandos, it just could not be the
handiwork of a Pakistani jihadi. We are sure that
there are some Arabs inside, and possibly a
high-value target is commanding them."
The
establishment later gave out the names of two Arab
commanders of al-Qaeda - Abu Zar and Abu Masoor -
as being in the mosque. This could not be
verified.
On Sunday, Ghazi sent text
messages to the mobile telephones of all the
journalists with whom he had previously been in
contact, including this one. It read: "We have all
tied bombs to our bodies. We will fight till the
last and will not embarrass our friends."
"Father of the Taliban" Maulana Sami
ul-Haq, who is director and chancellor of a famous
madrassa in NWFP and a politician, has
warned that if Lal Masjid is destroyed, suicide
attacks can be expected all over the country.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
