Page 2 of 2 Pakistan heading for a
crackdown By M K Bhadrakumar
hidden message is that the SCO is
beginning to factor US plans for the deployment of
missile-defense systems in Europe and Asia. Lavrov
said, "We [CFM] did not specifically discuss the
US plans ... but of course we see that the
consequences of the unilateral actions in this
sphere will make themselves felt here [Central
Asia] too, especially considering not merely the
composition of the SCO
members, but also the composition of the observers
who work within the SCO in such capacity."
Significantly, China's position on the US
plans of deployment of anti-ballistic-missile
systems in the Asia-Pacific region is hardening. A
commentary in the People's Daily on Wednesday
lambasted the US for seeking "absolute nuclear
superiority":
Strategic nuclear balance is very
important. Today, only strategic nuclear weapons
can produce a deadly threat to the United Sates
... Balance helps maintain stability. Without
strategic balance, the order of the multipolar
world would be difficult to maintain. To this
extent, the issue of strategic balance does not
simply indicate a military struggle. It is
actually a question of the type of world order
that should be established, and a contest
between the unipolar and multipolar world
order.
The SCO summit is expected to
adopt a "long-term good neighborhood, friendship
and cooperation treaty". There is no gainsaying
the fact that the above SCO initiatives emanate
primarily out of a Chinese-Russian common
understanding. Closely following Russian-Chinese
consultations on the sidelines of the CFM on
Monday in Bishkek, the foreign ministers of Russia
and China will have an opportunity for further
extended discussions during Chinese Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi's scheduled four-day visit to
Moscow from Thursday.
The eagle has
landed How does all this add up? Without
doubt, from the US perspective, Pakistan's
strategic importance becomes compelling.
Washington desperately needs a power structure in
Islamabad that it can manipulate, but which will
have the staying power to ensure continuity in
policies. The challenge is arguably formidable.
New factors are at work compared with the
Cold War era. Unlike in the 1970s and 1980s, China
and Russia are increasingly coordinating their
policies regionally and internationally, though
the two countries are not thinking of any formal
alliance.
On its part, unlike in the Cold
War era, Washington is keenly developing its ties
with India. By professing a "de-hyphenated"
relationship with the two South Asian rivals,
Washington has so far managed to have the best of
both worlds. But it is a delicate act, especially
if Pakistan reassumes its role as the pivotal
state in US regional policy.
Besides, the
path to power in Pakistan runs through the
military, but the spirit of the times requires
that the military must be seen as serving civilian
masters. Such a calculus, however, is difficult to
put together in Islamabad. It has been tried out
before in Pakistan, and it proved to be
impractical.
Meanwhile, the specter that
haunts Pakistan is not of any Islamist takeover.
The Islamists simply lack substantial support. The
overwhelming majority of Pakistani people are
averse to religious extremism and militancy. The
real challenge facing Musharraf (and the US) is
from a popular uprising. Such a threat looms
large, which may altogether result in a drawdown
of US influence in Pakistan, given the pervasive
"anti-Americanism" in the country. It increasingly
appears that a military crackdown may become
necessary to preempt a popular uprising.
From a somewhat non-committal stance five
days earlier, the US State Department spokesman
purposively shifted gear by Tuesday to endorse
strongly Musharraf's handling of the Red Mosque
standoff. He said, "The Pakistani security forces
have gone in there [mosque] after exercising a
great deal of patience and restraint in offering
every possible opportunity for innocents that may
still be in the mosque to leave, as well as
offering those who have threatened to use
violence, and have in fact used violence, to
resolve the situation peacefully.
"Of
course, everybody wants to see these kinds of
situations resolved peacefully. It's everybody's
optimal solution. But it's fundamentally a matter
for the government to decide when negotiations end
and when action needs to take place to bring some
sort of resolution to the situation. In my
understanding, it was a situation where they had
exercised any number of opportunities for these
individuals to resolve peacefully, yet they
persisted, and they persisted to the point of
using children as human shields."
Thus the
second week of July is set to go down as a
defining period in US regional policy. North's
landing in the F-16 at Sargodha amounts to more
than a mere snapshot of US-Pakistan defense
transactions. Washington is, for all purposes,
shoring up Pakistan's beleaguered, hugely
unpopular army chief. It is imploring wobbling
corps commanders to hold the line.
M
K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in
the Indian Foreign Service for more than 29 years,
with postings including ambassador to Uzbekistan
(1995-98) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
