Pakistan in the grip of a big
squeeze By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The US-led "war on terror" is
poised to take a dramatic turn with its flames
spreading across the border from Afghanistan into
Pakistan, where General Pervez Musharraf is in a
battle to hold on to his presidency as well as his
position as chief of army staff.
In recent
days, the administration of US President George W
Bush has unequivocally pointed its finger at
Pakistan as providing a safe haven in its tribal
areas for Osama bin Laden and his al-
Qaeda followers, and
indicated that all options are on the table,
including strikes into Pakistan to root out the
terror threat. This was earlier reported by Asia
Times Online - see US to hunt the Taliban inside
Pakistan of July 3.
Musharraf
suffered a major political setback on Friday when
the Supreme Court ordered that Chief Justice
Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry be reinstated.
Musharraf had suspended Chaudhry in March over
allegations of abuse of authority. But many
believe the real reason was that Musharraf wanted
to remove obstacles to his remaining in uniform
while seeking another five-year term as president.
Emboldened opposition parties are now raising the
political temperature to force the issue.
The trigger for the escalation of tension
in the country was Islamabad's decision two weeks
ago to send troops into the pro-Taliban Lal Masjid
(Red Mosque) in the capital to meet its militant
threat head-on. A fierce reaction in the tribal
areas, where many drew inspiration - and support -
from the Lal Masjid, has seen scores of security
personnel killed in suicide and other attacks.
This unrest has provided Washington with
reason to threaten raids in Pakistan, especially
as the Pakistani Taliban have now ended their
peace agreements with Islamabad. The United States
never favored those accords, under which the
Pakistani Taliban were meant to curb cross-border
activity in return for the Pakistan Army leaving
them alone.
Recent developments include a
sudden revival of takfiri ideologues, who
had been pushed into the background, as the main
commanders of the anti-American movement in the
tribal areas (see The knife at Pakistan's
throat, ATol, September 2, 2006).
Takfiris hold extreme views on Islam,
including condemnation of Muslims who don't share
their sentiments.
The takfiris are
now organizing a Muslim backlash, with al-Qaeda as
the flagbearer, aimed at propelling them into
power in the country as a precursor to a wider
struggle for the liberation of Palestine and the
Prophet Mohammed's promised "end of time" fight.
Officially, Pakistan is not too keen on US
intervention in its reinvigorated quest to catch
bin Laden. Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid
Mehmood Kusuri said the government would try its
level best through political means to avert
foreign attacks on its soil.
However,
Pakistani strategic quarters are aware of such
plans and that the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) high command in Afghanistan
has detailed knowledge of al-Qaeda and Taliban
bases in Pakistan - and has apprised Pakistan of
its intentions.
The Pakistani Taliban,
too, have no doubts that multiple attacks are on
the way. NATO has stepped up troop activities on
the border, US drones and spy planes criss-cross
the skies, and the US is building a new base close
to the border near Bajaur, Pakistan, and Kunar,
Afghanistan (see A fight to the death on Pakistan's
border, ATol, July 17, 2007).
The clampdown on the Lal Masjid further
convinced the Pakistani Taliban (as well as
al-Qaeda) to expect attention from the Pakistan
Army and NATO/US forces.
Moulvi Sadiq Noor
and Moulvi Abdul Khaliq, two main followers of
Sheikh Essa, an Egyptian takfiri ideologue
who is currently bedridden and seriously ill in
the North Waziristan tribal area, have taken the
lead and openly declared war against the Pakistan
Army to avenge the Lal Masjid operation.
Musharraf's administration is trying to
cool the situation, some reports suggest even by
buying off militants with hard cash and promising
to withdraw all troops from the troubled tribal
regions. But attacks on the security forces have
continued unabated.
Even the pro-Pakistan
Taliban groups are in trouble. Taliban commander
Haji Nazeer, who this year organized the killing
of Uzbek militants in South Waziristan, has been
replaced by a little-known hardliner. Nazeer was
even attacked when he tried to mediate between
Pakistani militants and the establishment.
After the setback over Chief Justice
Chaudhry, Musharraf faces more potentially
damaging issues. These include the death of some
of Chaudhry's supporters at a rally in Karachi in
May, the problem of scores of "missing people"
held without charge by security agencies, female
students unaccounted for after the storming of the
Lal Masjid, and allegations that the military used
a form of chemical weapon during that operation.
Musharraf clearly will have his hands full
fighting these domestic fires, as well as facing
down militants, with US help, highly contentious
as this is, even in sections of his military.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
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