Pakistan ripe for regime
change By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - A civilian president with the
power to handle national security and foreign
affairs and a prime minister as chief executive is
the new Washington and London formula for regime
change in Pakistan.
This has been agreed
to in principle by President General Pervez
Musharraf and former premier Benazir Bhutto, Asia
Times Online has confirmed. The arrangement for
the United States' key ally in the "war on terror"
is intended to lead to a jacking up of the fight
against terror with zero
tolerance.
Musharraf and Bhutto met last
week in the United Arab Emirates - where Bhutto
lives in exile - and agreed on the most important
issues for a new political setup. This includes
lifting a ban on a person serving a third term as
premier (Bhutto has served twice - 1988-90 and
1993-96) and allowing her to return to Pakistan
without threat of legal action - she faces
corruption charges.
After eight years in
power since his bloodless military coup in 1999,
Musharraf finally appears to have been convinced
that the time has come for him to shed his uniform
and return the country to a semblance of
democratic normalcy.
Several recent events
have precipitated this. In July, Musharraf ordered
troops to storm the radical Lal Masjid (Red
Mosque) in Islamabad to root out militants. This
set off a fierce reaction in the tribal areas,
where thousands of troops have been mobilized, and
scores of them have since been killed by Pakistani
Taliban and al-Qaeda militants.
On the
political front, Musharraf suffered a setback when
the Supreme Court ordered the reinstatement of
Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, whom the
general had suspended in March on allegations of
abuse of authority. The incident galvanized
Musharraf's political opponents, creating a
groundswell of support for change.
The US
seized on this momentum, as it has become
increasingly concerned over Pakistan's performance
in the "war on terror". Washington needs someone
like Musharraf, but with him under fire from
militants and jihadis as well as politicians, a
compromise with Bhutto and her Pakistan People's
Party seemed the best alternative.
The
talks between Musharraf and Bhutto were the result
of a prolonged process in which Washington played
a pivotal role. Nevertheless, the direct
involvement of a British Foreign Office official,
who had served in Pakistan, played an important
role in resolving some of the terms of the
agreement.
The deal has been finalized at
a critical juncture of the "war on terror" as
Pakistan is under immense pressure to carry out a
powerful military assault against al-Qaeda and
Taliban bases in Pakistani territory.
New
US legislation aims to tie aid for Pakistan to its
performance in fighting terrorism. Pakistan has
received more than US$10 billion in US aid since
2001. The administration of President George W
Bush has also made it clear that it will take
matters into its own hands if necessary and
conduct its own raids inside Pakistan to tackle
militants.
This could happen any time, as
Pakistan's peace deals with the Pakistani Taliban
in the tribal areas have collapsed after the raid
on the Lal Masjid and Washington is tired of
Islamabad's excuses for not taking action against
Taliban and al-Qaeda bases.
Washington
pointed out these bases a few months ago. Apart
from Lal Masjid (now taken care of), they are in
North-West Frontier Province, North Waziristan and
South Waziristan. The Pakistan Army had appeared
on the brink of a major offensive against
militants, but then came the talks between
Musharraf and Bhutto.
Pakistani analysts
speculate that Musharraf might appoint the present
director general of the Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant-General Ashfaq
Pervaiz Kiyani, to replace him as chief of army
staff. Musharraf would then become a civilian
president. There might be a legal issue here,
though. Currently, government servants need a
two-year break before they can participate in
politics.
Another problem is the army
itself. A significant section of the military
resents Musharraf for siding with the US in the
"war on terror", as this meant initially the
severing of ties with the Taliban, whom Pakistan
nurtured into power in Afghanistan in 1996.
Subsequently, the military has been forced to
launch highly unpopular offensives in the tribal
areas, and has alienated the jihadist groups it
had previously courted.
The dissatisfied
factions have found a voice in such people as the
anti-American Senator Syed Mushahid Hussain. The
internationally known intellectual is the powerful
secretary general of the ruling Pakistan Muslim
League. He previously refused to become foreign
minister because it would have been difficult for
him to represent the Musharraf government's
pro-American policies.
Mushahid is also
chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in the
Senate, from where he presented
military-sanctioned proposals such as limited
deals between the Taliban and Washington and moves
to form a national government in Afghanistan
involving renegade warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
Most recently, Mushahid held a Senate meeting
attended by selected military-anointed
intellectuals to condemn possible US action inside
Pakistan.
Some doubt, therefore, that the
Musharraf-Bhutto tango will work.
"This
idea of a civilian president coordinating with a
chief of army staff is not possible. Once
Musharraf steps down as military chief, no chief
of army staff would listen to him," retired
Lieutenant-General Hamid Gul, former Multan corps
commander and director general of the ISI, told
Asia Times Online.
Pakistan might get its
regime change - but not exactly as planned in the
corridors of power in Washington.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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