Page 2 of 2 South Asia's schizophrenic
twins By Chan Akya
states in the
north, in turn fueling resentment elsewhere.
Diametrically opposite to the experience in
Pakistan, it was in the richest Indian states such
as Punjab that separatist movements broke out.
While that was quelled by the late 1980s,
relatively prosperous Kashmir erupted with
terrorists, many of them returning from successful
exploits against the Soviet army in Afghanistan.
Away from sectarian lines of thinking, the
experience of the social
strata has been much less
favorable for India. As I wrote in the
above-referenced article on jihadis in Pakistan,
[1] the Maoist movement has attracted thousands of
India's rural poor into battling the government
after the failure of economic growth left them
overly dependent on the rural rich for their
sustenance. While owning their own plots of land
gave Indian farmers some leeway, a combination of
high birth rates that split land holdings into
uneconomic sizes and indifferent irrigation
systems pushed a number into debt, and in some
cases even suicide. This is where Maoists draw
their recruits from and, as I argued before, the
pool is very similar economically and
demographically to the one that feeds Islamic
terrorist groups operating out of Pakistan.
But not everything is doom and gloom.
IT leads the way Like eunuchs
looking at erotic rock carvings in some Indian
temples, trade-union and communist leaders can
only gaze with awe at the salary hikes being
bestowed on the information-technology (IT)
sector, especially in India. The proof of how
markets work and eventually reward the workers
sits uncomfortably for anyone brought up on a
steady diet of Nehruvian socialism, but it is here
that Asian politicians can learn their most
valuable lessons.
India's IT sector was
created by all the "wrong" people - the sort who
would have otherwise joined a dead-end government
job or emigrated abroad to enrich North American
companies. Attempting to avoid both rampant
corruption and the expensive real estate of
Mumbai, the sector was located in the southern
city of Bangalore initially and has since expanded
elsewhere in the region.
With
unconstrained growth resulting in explosive demand
for people, India's IT cities soon became a
melting pot of the best talent from across the
country and produced with it significant social
changes. Southern cities are notably more
cosmopolitan than their counterparts in the north
and, as with cities elsewhere in India, have
provided easy refuge for the rural poor.
In a previous article, [4] I characterized
the battle for Delhi's road access as one for
economic growth, necessitating the increased
industrialization of the country. Similar
pressures that are at the root of Pakistan's
troubled regions can only be addressed by
increased growth of the kind shown by the freeing
up of India's IT sector.
There are of
course negative consequences of India's IT sector.
While its achievements are truly staggering, the
sector can also be accused of distancing itself
from its environment. Providing themselves with
independent power plants, water facilities and
self-contained townships, IT businesses avoided
dealing with the worst examples of Indian
government action and corruption. While that is a
fix for the short term, it cannot be applied over
the longer term.
The next 60 years The easiest way to achieve the balance between
increased economic growth and improved government
services on water, health and education across
India and Pakistan is the freeing up of the
business sector. Selling down government stakes in
state- (and military-) owned enterprises would
inevitably increase overall economic growth for
starters. Increased government revenues must be
spent on improving physical and human
infrastructure, including on roads, water and
power as well as education, legal and medical
services.
Keeping the two nuclear powers
on the path to stronger economic growth will pave
the way for improved relations, as increased
wealth inevitably pushes people to reconcile
differences. Many of the worries of the past few
years have been fueled by feckless politicians
unable to ignite any economic growth, and
therefore resorting to empty rhetoric.
All
of this, though, depends very much on the ability
of governments to push through structural reforms.
The outlook for that, however, remains far from
encouraging. Inevitably, political and diplomatic
evolution will have to wait on economic
improvements.
India's corrupt elite will
probably demolish democratic institutions
progressively over the next 60 years, while
Pakistan's elite will likely face upheavals
similar to what has been observable in Saudi
Arabia and other Middle Eastern states. The
government of Pakistan doesn't enjoy the
legitimacy required to push through the reforms it
is attempting, while the government of India,
which doesn't lack any legitimacy, seems intent on
preserving the status quo. This dichotomy appears
more like schizophrenia at the top level, hence my
characterization of the two countries as the
schizophrenic twins.
Notes 1. The jihadi ate my
homework, Asia Times Online, February
24, 2007. 2. The wages of corruption,
ATol, August 19, 2006. 3. The Punjab was split
between Pakistan and India in 1947, prompting the
worst sectarian riots in history. On the eastern
front, East Pakistan was split from Bengal.
Ironically enough, it was these two states that
had contributed by most measures the most to the
freedom struggle against the British. 4. Caste-away, ATol, June
15, 2007.
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