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2 Sri Lanka hunt turns to Tigers in
north By Ajai Sahni
With the eviction of the Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) from Batticaloa, capital of
Sri Lanka's Eastern Province, and the Tigers'
eventual collapse in the Thoppigala jungle area
(Barron's Rock) on July 11, the expulsion of the
rebels from their strongholds in the province was
complete.
Well before these successes,
outlining the strategy of the Sri Lanka Army on
January 4, SLA commander Lieutenant-General
Sarath
Fonseka said, "After eradicating the Tigers from
the east, full strength will be used to rescue the
north."
This broad perspective has been
powerfully underlined by President Mahinda
Rajapakse, who on July 9 vowed to "wipe out" the
LTTE from the Northern Province, declaring that
blunting the rebels' military prowess was the only
way to achieve permanent peace in the country. The
president's assertions have found strong support
among his political allies and constituencies,
principally within the Sinhala right.
With
a tremendous surge in confidence in the SLA and a
continuous escalation of political rhetoric at the
highest level, a northern offensive appears
increasingly likely. Indeed, firefights along the
current forward defense line, both in the Jaffna
Peninsula and along the mainland north of
Vavuniya, are daily occurrences. SLA sources also
said "long-range operations" deep into LTTE
territory were begun in a campaign of attrition
intended to weaken the rebels in their final
bastion. These operations have created some
difficulties for rebel movement along roads in
LTTE-controlled areas.
Nevertheless, a
high measure of caution - contrasting
significantly with the character of the public
postures and rhetoric - characterizes the present
military perspective. While it has long been
believed that the LTTE's prowess has been
exaggerated, and that its forces have suffered
substantial declines in recent years due to the
"Colonel" Karuna rebellion in the east and the
December 2004 tsunami, there is general agreement
that the group is capable of rebounding. The
remaining area under LTTE control is roughly 7,500
square kilometers, and the topography and terrain
of the north, with dense tropical jungles across
vast stretches, favors guerrilla forces.
Further, some of the major LTTE citadels
are in densely populated civilian areas -
including the "political headquarters" at
Killinochchi - and a frontal assault would be
exceptionally bloody. Historically, the LTTE has
tended to position its defenses, including its
artillery, in civilian concentrations to raise the
risk of collateral damage in the event of an
attack. Indeed, Killinochchi has never been
subjected to any military pressure - including
aerial attack - because of its concentration of
public offices, hospitals and residential areas.
Further, the Northern Province has
repeatedly undergone ethnic cleansing and is now
exclusively Tamil - and principally "Sri Lanka
Tamil", the primary ethnic support base of the
LTTE, with only small numbers of "plantation
Tamils" (later immigrants from India, principally
indentured labor brought in by the colonialists),
who are generally looked down on by the LTTE
leadership. This creates limited avenues for
intelligence flows to the SLA and will act as a
significant constraint.
The SLA also
remains aware of the risks of a rear-guard
campaign of terrorism, hit-and-run attacks, and
frustrating harassment in the east. While most
surviving LTTE cadres have filtered out of the
Eastern Province, seeping gradually toward the
north, the potential for a rash of guerrilla and
terrorist attacks remains.
The LTTE
leadership has explicitly warned of guerrilla
action in the east, and consolidating government
presence in the province will remain a significant
challenge over the foreseeable future. This will
increase demands for military manpower, and reduce
the probabilities of a major northern offensive.
The government has announced a 180-day
"Accelerated Eastern Development Program" (also
named "Reawakening of the East") that is intended
to consolidate its position in the Eastern
Province. The police and civil administrations
have been put in charge of the program in an
effort free the bulk of the military forces for
operations in the north.
The LTTE's forces
concentrated in the north remain substantial and
are being renewed in terms of both manpower and
weaponry. While accurate estimates of their
strength are virtually impossible, according to
government sources, some 3,087 LTTE were killed in
action between December 2005 and August 2, 2007,
with another 1,589 wounded.
The LTTE is
currently thought to have roughly 7,000 soldiers,
including a significant number of child recruits.
Moreover, there are roughly 600,000 civilians in
the LTTE-controlled areas, and the LTTE enforces a
norm of one person per family to be recruited into
its army. Further, all civilians of "fighting age"
(including a significant proportion of children,
principally aged 14-16, but
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