Musharraf down, but far from
out By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The news on Thursday that former
prime minister Nawaz Sharif will be allowed to
return to Pakistan after seven years of exile in
Saudi Arabia has widely been interpreted as yet
another blow to President General Pervez
Musharraf.
However, this is not
necessarily the case, and Musharraf may yet emerge
triumphant in elections scheduled for this year or
early next, as he has the backing of the United
States and its allies in
the
"war on terror".
The Supreme Court - led
by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who only
recently was reinstated after being suspended by
Musharraf - ruled that Sharif and his brother
Shahbaz and their families were free to return to
the country.
Sharif was ousted by
Musharraf in a bloodless coup in October 1999 and
was subsequently jailed on a host of charges,
including hijacking and corruption. He went into
exile in a deal brokered by the Saudis.
Shahbaz, a leading official in Sharif's
Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), is expected to
return to Pakistan first and stage large street
rallies in Punjab province as part of a
muscle-flexing exercise. Sharif will then return
to launch what many expect to be a challenge to
Musharraf's military regime.
Musharraf and
his Western backers, however, view things rather
differently. It is envisaged that the general
remain the central figure in politics around which
a national cohesive government will then be
established.
Retired Major-General Jamshed
Ayaz Khan, the president of a national policy
think-tank, the Institute of Regional Studies,
believes that in Washington's policy framework
Musharraf remains the central leader and other
political parties will be persuaded to back him.
Another former premier, Benazir Bhutto,
who also lives in exile, in the United Arab
Emirates, has already had talks with Musharraf
over returning to the country and her Pakistan
People's Party Parliamentary sharing power with
Musharraf.
The central issue revolves
around Musharraf's position as chief of army staff
- he has on many occasions said he would abandon
the uniform, but he still wears it. There is even
unrest in Musharraf's ruling Pakistan Muslim
League over his being re-elected in his uniform,
with several members of Parliament openly airing
their disapproval.
"The present situation
will lead to a government of national unity, and
almost all the big political parties will join the
government. Even Nawaz Sharif will eventually
gravitate towards reconciliation," said Khan.
"The president will have to be elected
from Parliament, with uniform, and he will be
backed by the military. But only for a transition
phase. The military understands that the election
of Musharraf in uniform is essential for a smooth
transition of power from military hands to a
civilian setup," said Khan.
Street
politics in the near term will grab most of the
headlines in Pakistan, but the US and its allies
are unlikely to change horses in midstream. They
are banking on Musharraf to keep hold of the
reins, at least until an orderly return to a
strong civilian government can be guaranteed.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia
Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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