KATHMANDU - All things being equal, as
many as 17.6 million Nepali voters could
conceivably to go the polls on November 22 to
elect a Constituent Assembly to draw up a new
constitution. And prevailing indicators show that
country's major political forces are in favor of
abolishing the monarchy to pave the way for a
republican federation.
Members of Nepal's
Election Commission are busy making preparations
so voters throughout the country can make educated
decisions at the polls.
"So far our efforts have been concentrated
on educating voters about the distinct differences
between the upcoming polls and the [traditional]
parliamentary elections," chief election
commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel told Asia Times
Online.
But whether voters, a good
percentage of whom are illiterate, have been fully
able to understand the importance and objectives
of the pending polls isn't certain. One primary
issue has been the decision to use a mixed system
instead of a proportional system of election.
The education efforts could be moot if
threats by the Maoist party are followed through.
On Saturday, Maoist chairman Kamal Dahal (aka
Prachanda) met with Prime Minister Girija Prasad
Koirala and threatened to quit the government and
boycott the polls if his party's 22-point charter
of demands was not met on Monday.
Prachanda told Koirala that the Maoists
would launch a national protest to press their
demands, which include abolishing the monarchy and
declaring Nepal a republic before the November 22
election and scrapping the mixed system in favor
of a proportional election system.
However, two other major Nepali political
forces, the centrist Nepali Congress and moderate
leftist Unified Marxist Leninist (UML), have
rejected the Maoists' demands, saying that a new
amendment to the present interim constitution
would be needed and there is not enough time to do
so before the November elections. But Maoist
leaders have said the interim coalition government
is empowered to make constitutional changes, even
this late in the game.
The Nepali Congress
and UML leaders also charge that the Maoists are
trying to find an excuse to stay away from polls
because of their rapidly declining popularity. The
Maoists' history of violence and intimidation,
particularly in Nepal's rural areas, isn't likely
to give them a sizable number of seats in the
proposed assembly of about 500 members.
Their alternatives are then either to wait
for the political situation to shift or go back to
the mountains and try to revive the violent
insurgency they carried on for 10 years. Since
their prospects for immediately reviving the
rebellion are not bright, Prachanda also has
publicly called for rescheduling the election for
next April or May.
India's interest in
seeing the polls happen on time and without
wrinkles is also muddying the waters. Indian
Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shankar Mukherjee's
remarks at an Indian Independence Day ceremony at
his embassy on August 15 are being cited
frequently in Nepali media.
Mukherjee's
statement that "no excuse can be given for not
holding the elections, except perhaps by an act of
God", sounded to many Nepalis less like friendly
advice and more like a royal command from the
likes of the embattled Nepali King Gyanendra, who
lost his status as head of state in April 2006.
A "secret" audience between Mukherjee and
Gyanendra wherein the ambassador reportedly
"offered [unknown] assurances" to the king also
has drawn the ire and speculation of Nepali media.
Last Wednesday, a prominent editorial
writer, Madan Mani Dixit, referred to Mukherjee as
someone sounding like a "second king". In another
article published a day before, in a pro-Maoist
weekly, former Nepali Army general Kumar Fudong
referred to reports that claim more than 1,600
persons in Nepal are on the payroll of India's
external intelligence agency, the Research and
Analysis Wing (RAW). How consistent, effective or
relevant RAW can be is another matter.
That New Delhi, which enjoys a close
relationship with Washington, is playing politics
in unstable Nepal has been reported even in the
Indian media. "New Delhi, of course, has little
leverage in Pakistan and cannot hope to play the
sort of role there that it did in Nepal's case,"
The Times of India wrote in the context of former
Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif's second
exile to Saudi Arabia.
Whether New Delhi
stands to make any sustainable gains by getting
too deeply involved in Nepal's affairs remains a
matter of conjecture. It already has the Kashmir
problem and there are separatist movements in the
northeast. The movement to create independent
Khalistan in Punjab led to tragic events,
including assassination of prime minister Indira
Gandhi. In more recent times, India's own Maoist
insurgency has spread like wildfire. Telangana,
Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu are some of the India's
other trouble spots. If not stopped straight away,
of all these challenges to New Delhi, Nepal's
would inevitably be the biggest one.
In
any case, how meaningful would Nepali elections be
if Maoists indeed boycotted them? Not very, in the
opinions of local analysts. "Holding polls without
Maoist participation won't be an easy task," said
Ameet Dhakal of the Kathmandu Post newspaper.
Indeed, if Maoists cannot be included in the
elections, the entire peace process based on pacts
and agreements signed in the past would be
meaningless.
As a consequence, issues
Maoists took up on behalf of poor and deprived
sections of the society would thus remain
unattended, leaving room for more discontent and
resentment. Another dimension of the problem is
related to fear emanating from Maoist plan to
"actively boycott" the polls - which many take as
code words for disruptions that could endanger the
safety of candidates, poll officials and voters
alike.
However, Prime Minister Koirala
says he is fully committed to the November 22
polls. He also keeps assuring Kathmandu-based
ambassadors as well as visitors from the United
Nations, Washington, London and Beijing that the
existing transitional phase will not last for
long.
But the immediate question is: What
happens if the authorities fail to hold the polls
on November 22? First, the legitimacy of both the
coalition government and interim legislature would
be questioned and the chief of the Nepali Army,
General Rookmangud Katawal, has already broadly
hinted that the armed forces might be the first
national institution to raise the question.
One emerging scenario is a
Bangladesh-style military coup with a civilian
face.
A "neutral" government would be set
up and requested to conduct elections to produce a
legitimate government that, in turn, would
complete the peace process that the present
coalition began last year. Whether the army would
leave any space for Maoists to compete in
electoral politics in such an arrangement is
unclear because of their history of combat between
1996 and 2006. In any case, if it is required to
mount a "rescue mission", the Nepali Army is
likely to delay, if not scuttle, the process to
the abolish the monarchy.
The other
possible alternative is for the United Nations to
take a larger role, as it has done in a number of
trouble-torn nations. The present UN mission in
Nepal was established last year through a Security
Council resolution and in the context of peace
initiatives.
In a worst-case scenario, New
Delhi could dispatch its "peacekeeping force" as
it did in Sri Lanka in 1987 - though that proved a
fiasco after India lost more than 1,100 soldiers.
Should New Delhi begin to take steps for
direct action, it would be seen to have been done
through tacit understanding with its "strategic
partner" - the United States. The US
administration would not discourage measures as
long as these appeared aimed at encircling China.
What would be Beijing's reaction to such a
maneuver? It depends on its priorities, either
further thawing of its relations with New Delhi or
defending Nepal in exchange for safeguarding its
interests in Tibet.
Dhruba
Adhikary, who has been a Dag Hammarskjold
fellow, is a Kathmandu-based journalist.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
