Pakistan's plan is coming
together By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The first phase of the United
States-backed deal for a new political setup in
Pakistan has been accomplished with President
General Pervez Musharraf nominating a new army
chief to replace him.
Lieutenant General
Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, the head of the powerful
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has been
promoted to general and appointed vice chief of
army staff, and will assume the top job
once
Musharraf sheds his uniform.
This is
expected to happen soon after Musharraf is
re-elected as president in voting by the national
and provincial assemblies on Saturday. Musharraf
has been both president and head of the army since
seizing power in a coup in October 1999.
Once the change occurs, the Pakistan Army,
as an institution, will become the main contractor
of US interests in the region.
The next
phase of Pakistan's transformation will be
parliamentary elections in about three months in
which former premier Benazir Bhutto and her
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) will ally with
Musharraf to take power. On Tuesday, Musharraf
announced an amnesty law to remove all corruption
cases against Bhutto, who has been in exile since
1999, paving the way for her return to the
country.
The aim is to create a national
consensus government of "like-minded parties" in
which the religious parties will have only a
limited role.
The army steps
up A new team is being formed to spearhead
the strategic and political affairs of the
country. President Musharraf (retired general),
will have under him the chairman of the joint
chiefs of staff committee, (previously the Corps
Commander Rawalpindi) General Tariq Majeed; Kiani,
and the new head of the ISI and once head of
Military Intelligence, Lieutenant General Nadeem
Taj.
These are all dedicated officers who
have played a crucial role in the US-led "war on
terror". Kiani, as head of military operations
after the US invasion of Afghanistan, was actively
involved in joint military strategies concerning
US bases in Pakistan, the logistics of the war and
with joint border operations.
The
mild-mannered Kiani is regarded as a thoroughly
professional officer schooled in the former East
Pakistan (now Bangladesh). He comes from the
Potohar region of Punjab, from where the British
drew most of their military officers in the days
of the Raj, and 60% of the current Pakistan Army
comes from the region. All the same, Kiani
dismisses any notion of false pride in being from
this "martial race" and believes such notions
caused the troubles between former East Pakistan
and West Pakistan in 1971.
Kiani is more
comfortable speaking English than Urdu or local
dialects and he was very fond of the high
standards of the English-medium schools in Bengal
during his schooldays in the 1960s, which, to his
horror, deteriorated after the creation of
Bangladesh.
He advocates "modernity",
which he believes can only be obtained with a
Western lifestyle. Kiani took three extensive
courses in the United States, something of a
rarity among Pakistan's officers, and interacted
with the top US military brass. He enjoys
intellectual encounters and expresses his opinions
clearly. Kiani served only once in the
intelligence department, as most of his time was
spent as a successful field commander, including
being Corps Commander Rawalpindi. Significantly,
Kiani was the military secretary during Bhutto's
second term in the mid-1990s.
Tariq Majid
personally commanded operations this year against
the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad in which
militants were flushed from the radical mosque.
Nadeem Taj, as director general of Military
Intelligence, worked closely with Musharraf in the
"war on terror".
This team's record makes
it an enemy in the eyes of al-Qaeda. It is also
the first team to be assembled without pandering
to ethnic links; rather, a shared interest in the
"war on terror" and its legacy binds it.
And it is this team, rather than Musharraf
on his own, that will work with Washington. For
instance, the chief of army staff will coordinate
with the commander of the United States Central
Command on broad policy matters. The director
general of military operations will work with the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization commander in
Kabul on joint border operations against
insurgents. And the director general of the ISI
will operate with US intelligence establishments
in Washington.
The Pakistani government
will only have an administrative role with US
officials, such as on matters related to aid
delivery on the basis of Pakistan's performance in
the "war on terror". This performance will be
reviewed between Pakistan and the US over an
agreed period of between three to six months.
Internal coordination between Pakistan's armed
forces and the civilian government will be handled
by the National Security Council.
On
the political front ... A consensus
government of non-religious political parties will
be the essence of the next government. The ISI has
already contacted various political parties
(whether they are now part of the opposition
alliances or the government) for seat allocations
on the basis of like-minded ideologies.
For instance, the sub-nationalist Pashtun
political party, the Awami National Party, will be
assured participation even from the southern port
city of Karachi, where the Pashtun population has
traditionally voted for religious parties. The
same will be implemented in North-West Frontier
Province and Balochistan, where sub-national
Pashtun parties will receive seats, as well as the
PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-i-Azam
group.
Separate negotiations are still
going on in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with exiled
former premier Nawaz Sharif, and if he agrees to a
role in a "friendly opposition" or even in the
government, he will be allowed to return, most
probably after the elections. Sharif, who faces
corruption charges, recently returned to Pakistan
but was sent straight back to Saudi Arabia.
In the coming year or so, Pakistan's role
in the region in relation to the "war on terror"
will largely be on the domestic front, where it
needs to confront the spillover from the Afghan
insurgency in its tribal areas.
In the
bigger picture, in terms of US-Pakistan relations,
for which this whole program has been designed,
Pakistan will play a pivotal role in the business
context as it will serve as the most important
corridor for oil and gas pipeline projects and
trade from the Central Asian republics to the warm
waters of the Arabian Sea.
Syed
Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan
Bureau Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright
2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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