Taliban poised for a big
push By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Following the success of their
2006 spring offensive, the Taliban were expected
to make even further gains in Afghanistan this
year. It never happened, due to strong pre-emptive
action by Western coalition forces in Afghanistan
and Pakistani military action against Taliban
bases in the Pakistani tribal areas.
However, plans for a mass uprising on the
back of renewed insurgency activity are far from
shelved, and could be implemented with vigor at
the end of the Islamic holy month of
Ramadan next week, with tens
of thousands of freshly trained men pouring into
Afghanistan.
The key lies in Pakistan's
tribal areas, from where the Taliban draw
recruits, have training camps and run their
logistics.
The Pakistani Taliban and
Islamabad signed peace agreements in February 2005
and September 2006, under the terms of which the
Pakistani Army cut back its troop levels in the
tribal areas in return for militants stopping
their attacks on the Pakistani Army and forces in
Afghanistan.
In July the Taliban abandoned
the treaties following the storming of the radical
Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad by government
troops. The mosque was an outspoken supporter of
the Taliban movement and many militants used it as
a sanctuary.
Since then, the Pakistani
military has re-engaged militants in the tribal
areas, severely choking their supply arteries.
In the past 10 days, however, militants
have launched at least nine carefully planned
operations against security positions in both
North Waziristan and South Waziristan, and in
towns in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP),
including Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan, and in the
Swat Valley.
As a result, all security
operations against the Taliban and their al-Qaeda
colleagues in the tribal areas have stopped, and
by all accounts the army is running scared. It is
estimated that Pakistan has 100,000 troops and
1,000 military posts along the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
From the
military's perspective, the situation is
exacerbated by a political hiatus in Islamabad.
President General Pervez Musharraf stands for
re-election in Saturday's presidential polls,
after which he is expected to step down as
military head and prepare over the next few months
for a civilian consensus government, most likely
with former premier Benazir Bhutto. No new plans
to tackle the problems in the tribal areas can be
expected until this situation is settled.
The Taliban and their supporters now have
the breathing space to replenish stocks and
prepare for their new push into Afghanistan. It is
envisaged that at least 20,000 fully trained fresh
men from at least 16 entry points along the Durand
Line that separates Pakistan and Afghanistan will
be sent into Afghanistan.
According to
people who spoke to Asia Times Online and who are
familiar with the planning, the main points will
be Noshki (in Balochistan province), Ghulam Khan
(North Waziristan), Angur Ada (South Waziristan),
Shawal (North Waziristan), and Chitral and Bajuar
agencies.
The new forces will go to the
front lines in Afghanistan in the southeastern
provinces of Ghazni, Khost, Gardez, Paktia and
Paktika, and many of them will be trained suicide
bombers.
The action has already picked up
in Ghazni. On Wednesday, hundreds of Taliban
occupied the remote district of Ajristan, killing
at least two policemen and forcing the rest to
flee. The Taliban have occupied numerous other
remote areas. Wednesday's attack came a day after
a suicide attack on a police bus in the capital,
Kabul, killed 13 people.
The strategy to
attack the Pakistani Army is being orchestrated by
a cabal of former army officers who have joined up
with the militants in Waziristan. (See Military brains plot Pakistan's
downfall Asia Times Online, September
26). They draw inspiration from the guerrilla
strategy used by Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap
against the French and the Americans. Given the
backoff by the Pakistani military, their plans are
working, at least for now.
Military
under attack From the daring attacks on
Frontier Constabulary forts in Bannu in NWFP,
where fresh hostages were taken, to suicide
attacks on military and paramilitary convoys in
the Swat Valley, the militants' intelligence
network is doing its job.
In all cases,
the targets have been accurately pinpointed, and
the operations carried out according to plan. The
attacks have swiftly reached into the Swat Valley
and send a clear message to the commanders in
their barracks in Peshawar to pull back their
troops or face the music.
Indeed, the
latest offensive against the army has sent
shockwaves through military headquarters in
Rawalpindi, and it is even feared that they could
spread to big cities such as Karachi, Lahore and
the capital Islamabad.
Pakistani officials
have admitted to more than 1,000 of the country's
forces being killed in the tribal areas.
Large-scale kidnappings also have a demoralizing
effect on troops. To date, more than 500 troops
have been abducted in different operations, the
most recent being the capture of 22 in Bannu. Some
of them have been swapped for Taliban prisoners,
while some are still in captivity.
This
week, while in the United States pleading for more
time in taming the tribal areas, Pakistan's
Foreign Secretary Riaz Muhammad Khan acknowledged
his country had an "image problem".
Clearly it's more than just image.
Pakistan's reaction - or inaction - in the tribal
areas will have a direct bearing on the Taliban's
offensive in Afghanistan, and the longer its
troops are on the defensive, the better the
chances of the Taliban.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau
Chief. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright
2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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