French arms deal with Pakistan
risks US ire By Federico
Bordonaro
The news last month that
Pakistan is likely to get French air-to-air
missiles (AAMs) and radar for its JF-17 fighter
aircraft has raised some eyebrows in the US.
The reason is that MICA AAMs produced by
MBDA and RC-400 multimission radar built by Thales
may enrich China's rapidly growing military
capabilities if sold to Pakistan, since Islamabad
is developing its fighter plane jointly with
Beijing. The JF-17 is a lightweight multi-role
fighter co-developed by Pakistan
Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and
Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation under a
joint venture of China and Pakistan.
Thus,
some observers say, the widely debated European
Union arm systems ban against China may finally be
circumvented, in such a way that it could damage
US efforts to keep Beijing's air power at
disadvantage vis-a-vis Taiwan. As some Indian and
Pakistani sources have pointed out, French-built
Mirage fighters owned by Taiwan are actually
equipped with such missiles and radar.
Taiwan and India are obviously concerned
with China's military build-up. If China gets the
chance to closely look at French advanced
technology in possession of Taipei, Beijing could
theoretically become capable of countering it
effectively.
However, it must be noted
that the issue of military technology transfer is
fairly complicated, and that Pakistan's
acquisition of French systems is not automatically
a dramatic reinforcement of Chinese capabilities,
unlike some reports suggest.
In fact, if
French companies sell radar and missiles to
Pakistan, they don't sell the know-how necessary
to build such systems from scratch. Clearly, bits
of the source code needed to integrate the
components into the JF-17 will be transferred by
the French to the Pakistanis. Missile-radar
integration and avionics will be developed by
France and Pakistan, with the Chinese contribution
focused on hardware.
This means that if
Pakistan transfers such code to Beijing, China
could actually become capable of integrating the
two systems into its fighter jets (like the J-10),
although it will not include the JF-17 in its air
force. But it does not mean that Beijing will be
able to produce such systems.
Therefore,
the key variable here is how many MICAs and
RC-400s France sells to Pakistan. Of course, if
Islamabad buys new series of them after the first
acquisition, it is conceivable that China could
get its hand on them in the future, independently
of the JF-17 development.
Rumors of the
deaL It is certainly no secret that France
has eyed Indian and Pakistani defense markets as a
great opportunity to expand its strong
military-industrial sector. For years, French
companies have provided weapons and systems to
both Delhi and Islamabad. However, the deal
regarding the JF-17 has been a difficult one,
mainly for political-diplomatic reasons. This
explains the lack of information from France and
the extreme cautiousness in all aspects of the
current arrangements.
After some leading
British and US publications highlighted the danger
of sensitive military technology transfer to China
via Pakistan, officials from MBDA and Thales
refused to comment on the deal. France's Defense
Minister Herve Morin subtly conveyed the Paris
position nonetheless, as he replied to Associated
Press journalists that "to my knowledge, there is
no arms embargo for Pakistan".
Back in
September 2004, Jane's Defence Weekly's special
correspondent Robert Sae-Liu reported that the
choice of a multimode pulse-Doppler radar for the
JF-17 fighter was reported in 2003 as "involving a
competition between Phazotron of Russia with the
Kopyo system, Galileo (FIAR) of Italy with the
Grifo S-7, and Thales of France with the RC 400".
Hence, a short history of the JF-17
project unveils Thales' interest. The simple fact
that two French companies are involved in the
issue worries the US. Paris has long lobbied
within the EU for lifting of the arms embargo
against Beijing imposed by Europe after the 1989
Tienanmen incident.
Most French Gaullists
and Socialists have pushed for a lifting of the
ban. The reason is twofold. On one hand, the
French defense industry is aggressively seeking
expansion in Asia's markets, and China is arguably
the most interesting of them. On the other hand,
Paris cultivates the geopolitical ambition of
creating a multipolar world in which the EU will
progressively acquire strategic autonomy from the
United States.
However, President
Nicolas Sarkozy's election in May 2007 has started
an apparently rapid and powerful rapprochement
between Paris and Washington on a number of
issues. Interestingly, some French analysts who
deal with so-called "economic warfare" dynamics
have recently criticized France's pro-China
orientation. They have even lambasted civilian air
industry deals with Beijing made by Airbus,
reasoning that French companies that only seek
market opportunities will eventually jeopardize
European technological superiority over China.
Up until this year, though, Washington has
successfully counter-lobbied France's efforts to
persuade its EU partners about the anachronism of
the embargo, and the ban is still valid despite
numerous predictions of its imminent demise. Now,
Sino-Pakistani military cooperation, which is
likely to remain strong also in light of the
growing US-Indian strategic partnership, could
complicate the situation even more.
Washington furious? While on the
surface the Franco-American reconciliation is
fully underway, the reality is slightly more
complicated. Paris' hard, pro-US stance on Iran's
nuclear issue is one thing; another matter is how
France and the US perceive the international
system and balance of power.
Sarkozy's
position on the arms ban against Beijing will
possibly become clearer after the French president
visits Beijing later this year, but it is unlikely
that France will completely abandon its dream of a
more assertive and autonomous Europe when it comes
to security and defense policy.
Quoted by
the Pakistani daily Dawn on September 14, British
defense analyst and Asia specialist Alexander
Neill said that Washington may have a "quite
vicious" reaction if France does not reconsider
selling such systems to Islamabad.
However, according to various sources,
France and Pakistan will likely reach an agreement
on the missiles and radar. It is thus possible
that China will be able to exploit yet another
fault line in French and American diplomacy.
Whether or not the development of the
JF-17 will allow China to acquire military systems
and technology that will boost its power in
relation to Taiwan, as the US fears, such a
program will likely cause a dilemma for France: by
proceeding with enhanced cooperation with
Pakistan, Paris risks not only triggering
Washington's ire, but also upsetting India and
Taiwan - thereby complicating its future defense
marketing with two important buyers.
Federico Bordonaro is senior analyst with
the Power and Interest News Report (www.pinr.com).
These views are his own.
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