From Washington to war in Waziristan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
A dramatic sequence of events in Pakistan has grabbed global attention, but few
have so far connected the dots between the hurried issuance of a National
Reconciliation Ordinance on October 5 and the savage fighting that is currently
raging in the North Waziristan tribal area.
The National Reconciliation Ordinance, issued by President-elect General Pervez
Musharraf, grants immunity to current and former lawmakers who have been
accused of corruption. It paves the way
for a political settlement between Musharraf and former prime minister Benazir
Bhutto, which is expected to result in a civilian-based consensus government
after parliamentary elections in about three months' time.
The ordinance was issued just 24 hours before Musharraf’s reelection as
president, yet only three days prior to the Musharraf-Bhutto deal, which is
what the ordinance amounts to, Musharraf’s representatives had declined to
accept Bhutto’s conditions.
And within 12 hours of Musharraf's reelection, he was commanding what has
become the most bloody military operation against al-Qaeda and Taliban in North
Waziristan.
On October 1, Bhutto announced in disillusionment that talks on a political
settlement with Musharraf were completely stalled. Islamabad had categorically
rejected Bhutto’s demand for tangible confirmation of a guarantee that if she
supported Musharraf’s bid for the presidency and the formation of a new
government after parliamentary elections, she would be absolved of all
corruption charges pending against her in national and international courts. A
verbal assurance that the cases would be withdrawn was not enough for the twice
elected former premier, whose previous governments were both removed on charges
of corruption.
News of the breakdown in the dialogue reached Washington - the chief broker of
a Bhutto-Musharraf settlement - in a very short time. Indeed, Pakistan’s
political transition is the most important link in US strategy in the southwest
Asian region and to some extent in the Middle East. The US State Department's
Richard Boucher has visited Pakistan and United Arab Emirates (where Bhutto has
been living) six times in the past nine months in an attempt to reconcile
Musharraf and Bhutto and thus ensure a friendly government in Islamabad, thus
retaining an ally in the "war on terror" as well as curbing any adventurous
designs by the Pakistani military and safeguarding Pakistan’s nuclear assets.
While last week's political machinations were under way in Pakistan, the US was
providing intelligence to Islamabad about a massive regrouping of the Taliban
in the Pakistani tribal areas in preparation for a big campaign against NATO
forces in southeast Afghanistan. The US feared that a disruption of the
political dialogue would mean a hiatus in Pakistan’s political transition, and
delay military operations against the thousands of Taliban and al-Qaeda forces
gathering in North Waziristan before launching attacks on the Afghan provinces
of Khost, Paktia, Paktika, Gardez and Ghazni, and then Kabul with unending
waves of suicide missions. If the Taliban were allowed to hatch their plans
unmolested during a political vacuum in Islamabad, Washington believed the
Taliban would seize the upper hand in Afghanistan.
That was the situation when a representative of the US spoke to Bhutto and
noted her minimum demand for a political deal: “At least a signed letter by
General Pervez Musharraf which would document his promises against my demands.”
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice then spoke to Musharraf by telephone,
and immediately thereafter, Musharraf’s legal team promulgated the National
Reconciliation Ordinance.
In Pakistan, certain circles are immune from ordinary legal recourse.
Corruption in the military, for example, can only be probed and punished by the
military. Under the new reconciliation ordinance, politicians and
parliamentarians can now only be questioned by parliamentary committees and not
through ordinary laws, and all past corruption cases against those who have
held political positions in the past have been withdrawn. Some analysts have
criticized the ordinance as permitting the rise of the rule of political mafias
in Pakistan.
As soon as ordinance was issued, Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party separated
itself from other opposition parties and did not resign from the assemblies.
However, the party remained firm on its "principled stand" that it would
abstain in Musharraf's reelection vote. Musharraf swept the election as there
was virtually nobody to oppose him.
Within a day of Musharraf's victory, Pakistani F-16 aircraft were flying
sorties from Kohat Airbase to bomb the North Waziristan town of Mir Ali, acting
on intelligence and satellite maps provided by US intelligence. Top al-Qaeda
ideologues, reportedly including the group's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
were believed to based in the town.
The fighting in the area is continuing for a fourth day, in what has become the
biggest battle in the tribal areas since 2003. So far, over 600 casualties have
been reported, the majority of them civilians. Several dozen militants have
been killed. The Paksitani armed forces have reported 45 military casualties,
but a jirga (assembly of elders) handed over 73 bodies of Pakistani
soldiers to the commander of the 7th division of the Pakistan Army on Monday.
Another jirga handed over 50 wounded soldiers to army commanders. The
aerial bombardment continues, causing a mass migration of the local population
to nearby cities.
The flames of Waziristan fires always reach Islamabad and Karachi. When Benazir
Bhutto’s aircraft lands in Karachi on October 18, the battle of Waziristan will
be reverberating there. The top commander of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah
Mehsud, has already openly vowed to kill her, and a strong Taliban cell in
Karachi is ready to perform the task.
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