Pakistan plans all-out war on
militants By Syed Saleem
Shahzad
An all-out battle for control of
Pakistan's restive North and South Waziristan is
about to commence between the Pakistani military
and the Taliban and al-Qaeda adherents who have
made these tribal areas their own.
According to a top Pakistani security
official who spoke to Asia Times Online on
condition of anonymity, the goal this time is to
pacify the Waziristans once and for all. All
previous military operations - usually spurred by
intelligence provided by the Western coalition -
have had limited objectives, aimed at specific
bases or sanctuaries or
blocking the cross-border movement of guerrillas.
Now the military is going for broke to break the
back of the Taliban and a-Qaeda in Pakistan and
reclaim the entire area.
The fighting that
erupted two weeks ago, and that has continued with
bombing raids against guerrilla bases in North
Waziristan - turning thousands of families into
refugees and killing more people than any
India-Pakistan war in the past 60 years - is but a
precursor of the bloodiest battle that is coming.
Lining up against the Pakistani Army will
be the Shura (council) of Mujahideen comprising
senior al-Qaeda and Taliban commanders, local
clerics, and leaders of the fighting clans Wazir
and Mehsud (known as the Pakistani Taliban). The
shura has long been calling the shots in the
Waziristans, imposing sharia law and turning the
area into a strategic command and control hub of
global Muslim resistance movements, including
those operating in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"All previous operations had a different
perspective," the security official told ATol. "In
the past Pakistan commenced an operation when the
Western coalition informed Pakistan about any
particular hide-out or a sanctuary, or Pakistan
traced any armed infiltration from or into
Pakistan.
"However, the present battle
aims to pacify Waziristan once and for all. The
Pakistani Army has sent a clear message to the
militants that Pakistan would deploy its forces in
the towns of Mir Ali, Miranshah, Dand-i-Darpa
Kheil, Shawal, Razmak, Magaroti, Kalosha, Angor
Ada. The Pakistani Army is aiming to establish
permanent bases which would be manned by thousands
of military and paramilitary troops."
According to the security official, an
ultimatum had been delivered to the militants
recently during a temporary ceasefire. The army
would set a deadline and give safe passage into
Afghanistan to all al-Qaeda members and Taliban
commanders who had gathered in Waziristan to
launch a large-scale post-Ramadan operation in
Afghanistan. They, along with wanted tribal
warrior leaders, would all leave Pakistan, and
never return.
After their departure, under
the direct command and surveillance of newly
appointed Vice Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq
Parvez Kiani (who will replace President-elect
Pervez Musharraf as Chief of Army Staff), fresh
troops and paramilitary forces would be sent in to
establish bases at all strategic points and disarm
the local tribes. The Durand Line (the border
between Pakistan and Afghanistan), would be fenced
and border controls would be tightened.
The militants rejected the ultimatum.
What's at stake A qualified
estimate by intelligence officials is that
Pakistani military pacification of the Waziristans
would slash the capability of the Afghan
resistance by 85% as well as deliver a serious
setback to the Iraqi resistance.
The
militants have little option but to stand and
fight, rather than slip across the border or melt
into the local population. Aside from the
sanctuary and succor afforded them in the
Waziristans, most of the fighters there are either
Waziris, or from other parts of Pakistan, or
foreigners. They would be unable to support
themselves in Afghanistan, especially as most of
the non-Waziris do not speak Pashtu - a fact that
also prevents them from disappearing into the
Waziristan populace.
Their presence in the
Waziristans also has a direct bearing on their
funding: money can be transferred through bank and
non-bank channels, including the informal fund
transfer system known as "hawala".
Western
intelligence that has been shared with Pakistan
has determined that the two Waziristans alone
provide the life blood - a steady stream of
fighters, supplies and funds - for the resistance
in all of southeast Afghanistan, including the
provinces of Ghazni, Kunar, Gardez, Paktia and
Paktika, as well as for attacks on Kabul. In
addition, the Waziristans supply trainers to
guerrillas in the Taliban heartland of Zabul,
Helmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces.
According to intelligence sources, during
Ramadan, the Taliban's entire top command,
including Moulvi Abdul Kabeer, Jalaluddin Haqqani,
Sirajuddin Haqqani, Nasiruddin Haqqani, and Mullah
Mansoor Dadullah were in North Waziristan to
launch a post-Ramadan offensive in southeast
Afghanistan. The Pakistani military engaged the
militants well in advance to block their offensive
plan, but the same militant command is believed to
still be in North Waziristan.
In addition,
the town of Shawal hosts the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan’s command. The Uzbeks are trying to
reorganize themselves to stage an armed revolt
against the government of Uzbekistan.
There is also a Kurd presence in the area,
which has a direct bearing on the US's Iraqi
occupation. A small number of fresh Kurd recruits
come through Iran into Waziristan, get few months'
training, and then return to Iran before
infiltrating Iraq to fuel insurgency in Iraqi
Kurdistan against this important US ally.
"If the planned battle is successful and
Waziristan is pacified, the global Islamic
resistance would be back where it was in 2003,
when it had fighters but no centralized command or
bases to carry out organized operations, said a
Pakistani security official. "As a result, the
guerrilla operations were sporadic and largely
ineffective."
The safety of Taliban and
al-Qaeda assets in Waziristan is a matter of life
and death and, therefore, the militants have
devised a forward strategy to target the Pakistani
cities of Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad, hoping to
break the will of the Pakistani armed forces. The
Pakistani military, meanwhile, is trying to break
the will of the militants with ongoing bombing
raids.
Underscoring the seriousness with
which the military is planning for the coming
battle, it is reported that Shi'ite soldiers from
northern Pakistan are being sent to the
Waziristans. In the past, the Pakistani Army has
been plagued by desertions of Pashtun and Sunni
troops who refuse to fight fellow Pashtuns or
Sunnis.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Pakistan Bureau Chief, Asia Times Online. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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