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2 Benazir's second
homecoming By M K Bhadrakumar
By any reckoning, a very unusual moment
comes when a politician is called upon to pass the
test of public support under intense glare of the
world community. For the former Prime Minister of
Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto, Thursday posed one such
dramatic test - crucial even by the extraordinary
yardstick of her tumultuous life.
She
passed the test, as the bemused world stood by and
curiously watched. She still possesses traces of
that rare magic
when
a politician connects with the people, when a
politician comes alive and ignites public
imagination. The eight years of absence and the
numerous scandals surrounding her track record in
power, including charges of personal corruption,
do not seem to have dented her ability to inspire.
The Pakistani province of Sindh, Bhutto's
political base, went into raptures on her
homecoming. At the same time, she provokes strong
feelings of hostility among powerful sections of
opinion within Pakistan as the twin bomb blasts on
her convoy in Karachi testify. It is even possible
that her attackers include "rogue" elements within
the Pakistani establishment. Agent provocateurs
are surely actively putting roadblocks in her
campaign to mobilize support.
Obviously,
her political opponents take her seriously despite
their saying that her charisma is much diminished.
Now comes another test. As she travels to the
province of Punjab in the coming days, what will
be her reception? Will it match another homecoming
- no less fortuitous, no less breathtaking - two
decades ago?
Punjab's reaction will be
keenly watched. Without Punjab's support, or its
acquiescence at the very least, it will be
difficult for her to be the monarch of all she
surveys as a national leader. No Pakistani
politician can hope to make a serious bid for
power without mobilizing support in Punjab. But
the powerful Choudhury clans in feudal Punjab,
which ruled the roost there under the Pervez
Musharraf regime, cannot be expected to surrender
political space easily to Bhutto. They're surely
spoiling for a fight. A scuffle may ensue which
could be rough and, in turn, it will significantly
determine the calculus of political power in
Islamabad in the coming few years.
For the
present, it is just about possible to say that
democracy might have gained a degree of traction
in Pakistan on Thursday afternoon. But there have
been numerous similar false starts in that unhappy
country. Much remains in the womb of time.
The element of uncertainty still remains
whether the "powers that be" - the establishment,
which includes the armed forces - will be prepared
to accommodate Bhutto. Her return to Pakistan has
been almost completely choreographed by Britain
and the United States. The Musharraf regime needed
to be dragged by the collar to the promised land
of political cohabitation with Bhutto. Top
officials of the George W Bush administration,
laden with rich experience in making brutal
despots in Latin America behave, repeatedly
intervened with the Musharraf regime to play ball
- at times cajoling, at times threatening, at
times blackmailing.
But beyond a point,
Washington cannot act as Bhutto's mentor. From now
onward, she must perform mostly on her own. In the
past, Pakistani armed forces viewed her leadership
with distaste. She may be somewhat better off now,
as the new incumbent Vice Chief of Army Staff,
General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, who is expected to
succeed Musharraf as military chief, is known to
her previously as her military secretary in her
first government in 1988.
Equally, the
Kiani clan wields great influence in the northern
Jhelum province of Punjab, and traditionally
provided a large chunk of soldiers to the
Pakistani Army. Kiani, when he succeeds Musharraf,
will also have the unique stature as the only boss
of Pakistan's ubiquitous Inter-Services
Intelligence, known as the ISI, to have ever risen
to head of the Pakistani Army. The general will
also be a dependable hand in any tricky dealings
by a Bhutto government with India. He played a
crucial role in the winter of 2001-2002 as
Pakistan's Director General of Military Operations
in keeping tensions with India under check when
the two countries got embroiled in an
eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation over the
terrorist attack on the Indian parliament.
But that will be taking a tardy premature
peep into the misty future of Pakistan-India
relations that Washington may want to promote
under a government in Islamabad spearheaded by the
Musharraf-Bhutto-Kiani troika.
For the
present, though, Washington's focus will be on two
other fronts. First and foremost, Washington would
expect the new dispensation in Islamabad to ensure
that popular fury within Pakistan doesn't engulf
that country, leave alone assume the nature of an
uprising, in the event of a US military attack on
Iran in the coming months.
Equally, the
Bush administration will expect the incoming
military-cum-civilian regime to forcefully crack
down on the extremist forces getting entrenched in
Pakistan's lawless tribal agencies bordering
Afghanistan. The Pakistani Army would have no more
excuses to avoid undertaking such an operation.
Washington will expect the civilian
components of the new regime - the Pakistan Muslim
League faction led by the Choudhury clan, Bhutto's
Pakistan People's Party, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
(JUI) led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman and the Awami
Nationalist Party (ANP) - to hold the fort of
public opinion whilst the army cracks down on the
militants in the tribal border tracts.
In
this risky adventure that is about to commence,
Bhutto has a vital role to play. Her presence is
expected to help consolidate the inchoate majority
opinion in Pakistan, which militates against
radicalism and views the rising tide of militant
Islam with extreme disquiet bordering on
abhorrence. Even if they do not share
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