SPEAKING
FREELY Sri Lanka's war drums losing
beat By James Voortman
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
When hardliner
politician Mahinda Rajapakse became Sri Lanka's
president, few believed that the country's peace
process would continue unabated. Nevertheless,
fewer would have guessed that
within two years the
Rajapakse government would be pushing for a
military solution to the islands 25-year conflict.
However, that is the exact scenario that
is playing itself out under the current
administration. The government's aggressive
pursuit of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) is dividing the public and alienating parts
of the international community. After a series of
recent gains against the separatists in the east
of the country, the military is now bracing for a
fresh assault on the rebel-held north. But success
in the north is not guaranteed and support for the
government is fast fading.
As if to
emphasize this, the LTTE on Monday launched a
coordinated ground and air attack on an airforce
base in northern Sri Lanka, killing five
servicemen and wounding 22 others, the military
said.
Rajapakse assumed office in November
2005 during a period of relative peace between the
government and the LTTE. However, the president's
term of office coincided with a resumption in
hostilities between the rebels and the military.
Ever since, the northeast has been a virtual
conflict zone, with various efforts to restore
peace falling by the wayside. The rebels returned
to their tried and tested tactic of suicide
attacks in the Sinhalese-dominated southwest of
the country. They also reinforced their status as
one of the world's most innovative separatist
groups when they carried out a series of daring
air raids in Colombo with the use of modified
light aircraft.
The rebels, however, did
not have it all their own way, particularly in
their traditional eastern stronghold where the
influential Colonel Karuna - who along with a
sizeable group of supporters broke ranks with the
Tigers in 2004 - was virtually fighting alongside
the government against the rebels. After a number
of heavy battles in the east throughout the first
half of 2007, the military drove the rebels out of
the area in July.
Victory has presented
the government with an opportunity to secure the
east and win over the hearts and minds of its
inhabitants. However, laying claim to the east
does not seem to be the number one priority. A
series of offensives on the fringes of the
rebel-held north has increased speculation that
the government is seeking a military solution to
the conflict.
Indeed, if one believes
recent statements by army chief, General Sarath
Fonseka, the Tigers will be chased from the north
in a year or "maybe less". Fighting has been
underway in recent weeks around areas which
surround the rebel-held territory, including in
Mannar, Vavuniya, Weli Oya and Jaffna. There have
also been a number of sea battles, and the
military claims to have destroyed most if not all
of the rebels' seaworthy boats.
Defense
analysts are divided on whether or not the
military can drive the Tigers from their northern
stronghold. The proponents of an assault argue
that the Tigers are currently weak. There is an
element of truth in this, as is seen with the loss
of the east and subsequent battles on the northern
fringes. In addition, the rebels have failed to
carry out a significant terrorist attack or air
raid in the Sinhalese-dominated southwest of the
island in recent months.
However, other
defense analysts see this lack of activity as
exactly what makes the Tigers even more dangerous.
This theory claims that the rebel leadership has
dedicated all of its manpower to defending the
north. With the Tigers stronghold being heavily
fortified, it will not fall easily, and the
military is likely to suffer high casualties.
Regardless of the military's chances of
success in the north, the government would do well
to consider the costs of continuing the war.
Securing the east and allowing the rebels to
fester in the north may seem like the perfect
solution for a government fighting an increasingly
unpopular war. The conflict is taking its toll on
the economy. Since April, when the Tamil Tigers
carried out a number of air raids in Colombo,
tourist arrivals have dropped significantly.
Increased spending on the military and on war
ravaged infrastructure has led to near 20%
inflation. In addition, the initial budget
estimates for 2008 suggests an increase of 20% in
overall defense spending, further stoking
inflationary concerns.
The government is
also under pressure from human rights groups and a
number of foreign governments. On a recent visit
to the island, United Nations Human Rights
Commissioner Louise Arbour criticized Sri Lanka's
human rights record, and questioned the
government's readiness to improve it. Arbour's
critique followed recent comments by United States
ambassador, Robert Blake, who raised concern over
the number of extrajudicial killings in Jaffna.
New Delhi may also feel the need to speak out, as
an escalation in northern Sri Lanka threatens to
send a flood of refugees to the southern shores of
India.
Rajapakse has come under additional
fire for perceived nepotism, with three of his
brothers serving in government. The president's
plight has not been helped by the August
withdrawal of the Ceylon Workers Congress from his
United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA). This has
left the governing alliance with a slim majority
of 113 seats in the 225 member Parliament.
The ultra slim majority has only increased
the alliances dependence on its chief partner, the
Marxist- nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP). Dependence on the JVP has compromised
Rajapakse's decision-making powers, particularly
on issues related to the war, which the JVP
strongly supports. The JVP may still bring down
the government by rejecting November's budget and
forcing a snap election. In the event of a snap
election, the UPFA is likely to lose its
parliamentary majority to the pro-peace United
National Party. However, Rajapakse's term only
expires in 2011, and with the presidency carrying
more weight than Parliament, Sri Lanka's fortunes
are unlikely to change in the coming years.
James Voortman is the Asian
analyst for red24, a security risk management
company.
(Copyright 2007 James
Voortman.)
Speaking Freely is an
Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
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