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2 India, Russia still brothers in
arms By Sudha Ramachandran
been under severe strain in recent
months over the issue of cost escalation in
armament systems.
Under the original deal
to supply Sukhoi aircraft, Russia had agreed to a
2.55% cost escalation rate. And then in May, it
suddenly demanded a hike in the cost escalation
rate, citing the weakening of the US dollar and
strengthening of the ruble, as well as
double-digit inflation in Russia. Russia has
already delivered 60 Su-30s. It said it was
willing to supply another 40 at the original
cost
escalation rate of 2.55%. However, for the
remaining 138 Su-30s to be assembled in India, it
demanded a 5-7% cost-escalation rate.
Another irritant was the delay in delivery
of and cost overruns for the aircraft carrier,
Admiral Gorshkov. Under the original agreement,
the cost of upgrading the Gorshkov, including 16
MiG 29Ks, was $1.5 billion. The carrier was due to
be ready for induction into the Indian Navy by
August 2008. But now the Russians are demanding an
additional $113 million on the grounds that the
length of cabling required for the Gorshkov’s
upgrade was underestimated. And the carrier is
unlikely to arrive before 2010.
Not
surprisingly the cost escalations on Russian
armament systems ruffled feathers in Delhi.
Meanwhile, Russian supplies of fighters, warships
and tanks were put on ice.
It was only on
the eve of the Indian defense minister's visit to
Moscow that the stalemate on the cost escalation
was broken. India agreed to an annual cost
escalation rate of 5% on all arms contracts signed
with Russia earlier. This will hold good not only
for the purchase of Sukhoi aircraft but also for
other major armament systems like T-90 tank kits
and the Gorshkov aircraft carrier.
Indian
military officials complain that delivery of
Russian equipment is rarely on schedule. Supplies
of the Sukhois, T-90S main battle tanks and
Talwar-class stealth frigates have been running
late by years. It is not just delivery delays.
Repairs and overhauls of past acquisitions are
also behind schedule. Indian officials are also
concerned over the reliability of some Russian
weapon systems, such as the Appassionata
navigation systems.
Among the assurances
that Indian officials sought from their Russian
counterparts at the Moscow meeting were life-term
product support, maintenance of delivery schedules
and an uninterrupted supply of spare parts.
The signing of the FGFA agreement
indicates that despite its misgivings, India
continues to look to Moscow to meet its defense
requirements.
Russia's willingness to
enter into joint production with India makes it an
attractive partner for defense deals in Delhi's
eyes. Lawrence Prabhakar, associate professor at
the Madras Christian College and visiting fellow
at the Singapore-based S Rajaratnam School of
International Studies pointed out that similar
joint production deals with the Americans is not
possible. The Americans opening an F-18 plant in
India as the Russians have for co-production or
licensed production of their equipment is simply
inconceivable, he says.
There is also the
question of reliability. Should India's
relationship with the Americans turn adversarial,
the latter could cut off supply of aircraft spare
parts. Under sanctions since its 1979 Islamic
revolution, Iran has been denied spare parts for
its F-14 Tomcats purchased earlier from the US.
Russian spare parts for equipment sold to India
might be slow in coming but Moscow has never
denied India these parts.
Another reason
for India's misgivings ix that the latter has sold
the same military equipment to India and its
adversaries. The Russians have been generally more
aware of these Indian sensitivities but they have
sold different variations of the same equipment to
both India and Pakistan, Prabhakar pointed out. It
has sold T-90 tanks to India and allowed Ukraine
to sell a very similar Russian-designed T-80U tank
to Pakistan. But overall, the Russian record on
the matter is far better than the US.
Russia's deference to Indian defense needs
stems from the fact that the purchases are keeping
Russia's arms manufacturers thriving. Russia is
also aware that India is looking for other weapons
sources and it is wary of the growing profile of
countries like Israel, for instance, as an arms
supplier to India.
But a bigger test lies
ahead. India is planning on buying 126 new medium
multi-role combat aircraft, a deal that is worth
$10.4 billion. The Russian MiG-35 is in the race
for that mega-deal. But it will face fierce
competition from the American F/A-18 Super Hornets
and F-16 Falcons, the Swedish Gripen, the French
Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon. Whether its
long record as a reliable friend will propel it to
clinch the deal remains to be seen.
Sudha Ramachandran is an
independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
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